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If Spain doesn't have control of the Caribbean, which is under the control of another great power (Britain due to timeline shenanigans) how badly affected is Spanish colonization of South America? Since colonists could arrive in North America by travelling across the North Atlantic perhaps the Spanish could just bypass the Caribbean by sailing directly to South America across the South Atlantic?

Due to this timeline's early POD something very weird is happening both in Europe and South America. Portugal has colonized South America far before Spain before the Portuguese homeland in Iberia was conquered by the Spanish. At this point in the timeline (1600's) all Spanish holdings in South America (roughly Brazil) were previously Portuguese colonies and are by population 75% Portuguese. Spain is finding that 75% difficult to assimilate.

West Africa is not dominated by any European nation and the nations on the coast from what is roughly OTL Mauritania to Nigeria act freely. Britain's is currently occupied elsewhere but in roughly 60-70 years the situation that occupies them will end and a British invasion of Spanish South America will begin. Since the Brits are painting themselves as liberators of the Portuguese they cannot attack any Portuguese colonies that get free of the Spanish.

How long would Spanish South America last and how would it be likely to end? Would the South American holding have a strong tendency towards getting cut free from the empire under Spanish colonists control until it's overthrown? Would Spain have a strong tendency try to exert direct control to the bitter end? Perhaps they'd sink so much money and manpower in that Iberia becomes vulnerable? Could the downfall of that colony be rather unpredictable and really able to go in any direction?

Due to timeline shenanigans the Iberian Portuguese end of assimilated into Spain, unlike their colonists in South America.

On another note, in the 1700's how well does a colony of average tech development generally fare against the premier empires of the time (the ITTL empires never get past 50% of their OTL size) in a rebellion situation, especially when they have an ocean between them and their attacker? With this kind of population differential (75% hostile) how long would an empire in that era be able to hold onto a territory across the Atlantic? 30-50 years too short?
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