Gamble of Tannenberg Fails!

Hnau

Banned
The Battle of Tannenberg was held one of the more critical junctures of the Great War, indeed, a slight change could have changed the history of the world in a big way.

On August 23rd, 1914 Paul von Hindenburg arrived on the Eastern Front with his chief of staff, Erich von Ludendorff. Germany was in dire straits. The Russians had mobilized more quickly than imagined: in only fourteen days instead of sixty-five! The morale of the entire nation, the confidence of victory, was at stake. Refugees were streaming into central Germany from the east, expecting the Russian steamroller to reach Berlin by Christmas.

And then the opportunity: Ludendorff realized General Samsonov of the Second Army was recklessly pushing toward Allenstein and had lost contact with General Rennenkampf of the First Army operating near Konigsberg. The gamble: Ludendorff withdrew most of the forces facing Rennenkampf, leaving approaches to Konigsberg virtually undefended, and sent them into the breach which had formed between the two Russian armies. Had Rennekampf realized what was happening and attacked, he could have inflicted a disastrous defeat on the enemy.

Instead, on August 28, a German counterattack trapped Samsonov's army inan area of marshes and lakes. In four days, the Russian Second Army surrendered: the Germans had killed or put out of commission 70,000 Russians, captured 100,000 prisoners, at a loss of only 15,000 casualties. Samsonov shot himself out of humiliation. Next came Rennenkampf's turn.

On September 9, reinforced with freshly arrived units from the Western Front, Hindenburg took on the Russian First Army, forcing it to abandon to pre-war borders at the loss of another 60,000 men.

Certainly decisive. All Rennenkampf had to do was realize why the Germans were retreating, maybe based on some espionage, and he could have withdrawn from Konigsburg, smashed the Germans between Samsonov's army in the very marshes that the Second Army was trapped in, and then gone on to march on Konigsberg.

I think the worst thing about this situation is that Hindenburg said himself, "If the battle had gone badly, the name 'Hindenburg' would have been reviled from one end of Germany to the other." Morale in Germany would have hit rock-bottom, without success on either front, and the refugees would continue pouring in... There are fundamental weaknesses of the Russian military, but perhaps this could end the war within the year or shortly thereafter.

--

A short search on Tannenberg PODs reveals this is slightly more popular than I thought. Some say that Rennenkampf actually allowed the Germans to crush Samsonov because they hated each other... I don't know, I haven't seen a decent source on that subject. What I've read led me to believe that it was a tactical blunder of Rennenkampf's to not realize the trap the Germans had set up. And furthermore, even with a victory at Tannenberg, the German military was vastly superior to the Russian's... they would have to fall eventually. But no one can doubt that it would have hit the Germans hard, and its not as if the Russians would have suffered as well by growing more arrogant: they didn't learn any 'lesson' even after the disaster at Tannenberg, happy to sacrifice so many men for the Allies. So they would continue to operate in the same way they did regardless of success at Tannenberg. Unless the Russians over-reach, which is extremely possible, I can only see this shortening the war considerably.

--

One idea of what would happen shortly after the fiasco in East Prussia is first, the capture of Konigsberg, and second, Russian success at pushing into Silesia. The only reason they weren't able to march into Silesia was because of the threat from the north of Poland... without that threat, and with Russians rolling back the Austrians in Galicia, it is very likely the Russians could take Silesia at least into the beginning of 1915... which would again, decrease morale for the Central Powers, and perhaps hasten Italy's entrance into the war.
 
Last edited:
Well, IMO if Tannenberg is a major defeat and the Schlieffen plan fails as per OTL the CP might decide to just cut their losses and ask for terms.
 
Königsberg was a fortress with a regular garrison. The Russians had no siege artillery worth the name. Taking Königsberg might develop into a time consuming operation, given that the Russian navy is unable to stop the Germans from running in reinforcements and supplies by ship.
The Germans said "Comrade F" (F for Funk = wireless) provided them with all informations needed to shape their plans. The Russians were on the air either without codes or with codes so easy to break that German intelligence (which employed university professors for the task) needed only few hours to read them.
The battle of Gumbinnen had already caused Rennenkampf to tread slowly and cautiously, the Germans had broken the engagement because Samsonov's army was moving up behind them, otherwise Rennenkampf's army would have been beaten in the next one or two days.
The POD might be Rennenkampf's decision not to go for Königsberg but to seek unification with Samsonov. This would not result in the German 8th army being wrecked (they were to cautious to let that happen) but might result in the temporary loss of East Prussia. - Would be interesting to see how Ludendorff and Hoffmann manoeuvred in this case...
 
An Iron Curtain has descended on Europe

In some versions of this POD the Russian First and Second Armies encircle and destroy German Ninth Army then march on Berlin ending the war real quick. I think this extreme version is highly unlikely but I can see Eighth Army being hit hard. One interesting result of this is military historians in TTL would not be critical of Moltke's transfer of 2 corps to the east as those corps would not be critical in trying to fend off the Russian steamroller.

I think your scenerio is on target. The war is not over before Christmas but the Central Powers (which do not incl. the Ottomans) are in a bad position and Falkenhayn informs Kaiser Badhand that it is only a matter of time. Romania and Italy join the Entente. Early in 1915 I would see the war because oddly like the Korean War. Negotiations are underway probably in Holland or Denmark and the end of the war is in sight but fighting goes on for a while as the Central Powers are essentially fighting for terms. The Entente will not be completely in sync at these talks. The British are already worried that Czarist Russia will become the Big Bad once again after the war. The French are not led by Clemenceau and so not as fierce in their terms either. Woodrow Wilson will try to butt into the negotiations and will be told to take a hike. There is some chance that Pope Benedict might have a small role.

The end result is the war is over before its first anniversary. Russia gets only a little more than half the territory it wants. Reparations are less severe the Versailles. France gets AL. Germany colonies are taken. The German Navy is allowed to keep six dreadnoughts to counter the Russian Baltic Fleet. Kaiser Wilhelm is forced to abdicate and is replaced by his son who becomes Kaiser Wilhelm III.

Going forward things are very different than OTL. Asquith is temporarily bouyed by his success but with no Easter Rising he is now forced to try to implement Home Rule. Does the UVF rise up in revolt?

With fewer Slavic and Romanian subjects AustriaHungary might surprise people by surviving without anything more than minor political reform.

In Germany Wilhelm III will soon be forced to make some political concessions incl. granting the Reichstag the right to choose the Chancellor. While some really nasty right wing fringe groups will arise and cause trouble I see the Socialists dominating Germany for the remainder of the decade.

Russia was starting a period of economic growth before the war and I would expect it to continue afterwards. The war itself was in its initial phase a stimulus to Russian heavy industry. I would give Russia 2:1 odds of avoiding revolution before 1920 and if there is a revolution it would most likely take the form of Grand Duke Nicholas deposing his nephew and granting the Duma real power.

The United States never entered the war. The election of 1916 is centered on dometic issues. Not sure if that helps or hurts WW. Prohibition never happens. Storyville is never closed slowing but not stopping the diffusion of jazz. Hearst never goes through his unpopular period and probably remains a Democrat. There are all sorts of economic consequences to the US not entering the war.

The shorter war produces a more moderate change in military doctrine than OTL. Entrenchments have been shown to be a problem but I can see many a general staff saying that all we need is more 6" howitzers plus some mortars and hand grenades to take care of that. The British will likely pursue the landships idea but with much abstractly. Airplanes have demonstrated their value in reconnaissance but not for other missions. Posion gas probably got as far as the German use of chlorine. I would see a proression to phosgene shells postwar but perhaps mutard gas could be avoided.
 
Top