Gaius Caesar

In OTL, Augustus' preferred heirs were his grandsons by Julia's marriage to Agrippa: Gaius and Lucius, both of whom who were adopted by him in 17 BC. Gaius and Lucius both had promising legal and military careers in their short lives, and Gaius in particular is noted as having been not only Augustus' personal favourite, but also a particularly bright and gifted youth. As we know, Lucius died in Gaul in 2 AD at the age of 19, and Gaius died two years later, being mortally wounded while on campaign in Armenia, aged 23.

But, WI Gaius had not died? His death is, after all, pretty much one of the easiest to prevent. Let's say the POD is that he is simply not harmed in Armenia, for whatever reason (in this scenario, Lucius still dies as in OTL).

What Gaius succeeding Augustus look like and what would its effects be in the short and long-term, so far as we can tell? I know that he's pretty much a blank slate, but in particular, I'm curious as to the fates of the rest of the Julio-Claudian family and how they would fare under his reign? For instance, what of Tiberius and Germanicus and their own military and legal careers?

As an aside, I've done a bit of research, and it turns out Livilla was married to Gaius at the time of his death. So he'll probably also have adult children by the time of his own death, assuming he survives Augustus by at least another twenty or thirty years.

What does everyone think? I haven't really found much discussion on Gaius surviving and succeeding on this board, surprisingly...
 
You're right in that he certainly appears to have a blank slate. His death at a young age makes it difficult to predict his character, however he did show promise. According to Suetonius he played a large part in conducting the negotiations with Parthia to secure a peace treaty and the return of the legionary eagles lost at Carrhae. This was a great political victory for Augustus and a significant amount of the credit would have been Gaius'. According to this same source he was also the unlikely means for Tiberius to return to Rome after his self imposed (and politically stupid) exile.

Being the child of Julia and Agrippa would make him a Julian as opposed to a Claudian, which at that point keeps the momentum with the imperial family. Ironically any children he has with Livilla would be joint Julio-Claudian (and funnily enough also descendents of Marc Antony through Livilla's mother). When Augustus dies he'll still be a relatively young man of 34 which is probably enough exposure to Roman politics and experience as a magistrate given Augustus' penchant for lowering the age requirements for his favourites. Not really sure how it would go to be honest. Would it be Gaius who reclaims the legionary eagles lost at Teutoburg rather than Germanicus? Or would he have a close enough relationship with Germanicus to allow that mans full conquest of Germania which Tiberius prevented in OTL.

Interesting possibilities. If you feel bold enough write a TL. I for one would enjoy it.
 
You're right in that he certainly appears to have a blank slate. His death at a young age makes it difficult to predict his character, however he did show promise. According to Suetonius he played a large part in conducting the negotiations with Parthia to secure a peace treaty and the return of the legionary eagles lost at Carrhae. This was a great political victory for Augustus and a significant amount of the credit would have been Gaius'. According to this same source he was also the unlikely means for Tiberius to return to Rome after his self imposed (and politically stupid) exile.

Yes, exactly. In this scenario, I see Tiberius living out the rest of his life in self-imposed exile, perhaps ending up little more than a footnote in history, known for being a decent general and something of an eccentric. It's worth noting that Gaius supposedly quarrelled with him on Rhodes during his visit there before heading East in OTL.

Gaius was also very popular with both the plebs and the Senate. I see him being very much like Augustus, perhaps, a skilled and shrewd statesmen, but also having inherited something of his father's military genius. If he lives to say 66 years old (the average I came up with by taking into account the lifespans of his lineal ancestors who died natural deaths), that means he'd have enjoyed a rule of 32 years. This will give the Empire another long and stable reign, and if he and Livilla have a son, establish a precedent for a dynastic succession.

Would it be Gaius who reclaims the legionary eagles lost at Teutoburg rather than Germanicus? Or would he have a close enough relationship with Germanicus to allow that mans full conquest of Germania which Tiberius prevented in OTL.

I think a great deal of the trouble between Tiberius and Germanicus was the fact that Germanicus enjoyed such popularity with the Roman people and Tiberius did not. In this scenario, Gaius will already by well liked and he'll have little to fear from his brother-in-law. I could see Gaius allowing Germanicus to complete the conquest of Germania, if not doing it himself.

A few more thoughts on this scenario:

No reign of Tiberius means that the rise of Sejanus will be butterflied away, with many of those members of the Julio-Claudian family put to death under suspicion of treason in OTL surviving, probably with very interesting results.

For one, the life of Livilla is going to be far different. In OTL, she had a great deal of animosity toward Germanicus and Agrippina, since Agrippina was slated to be the next first woman of Rome (a position she would have had, had Gaius not died prematurely) and was a far more successful mother. In this scenario, if she bears a son, she'll have at least achieved some of that and cemented her position. She may even one day be raised to the honour of Augusta by her husband, perhaps becoming something of a second Livia Drusilla (being just as ambitious and manipulative as her grandmother). Then again, perhaps she also becomes involved with Sejanus ITTL, creating something of a scandal in her husband's later reign and ending in her downfall and exile.

If Gaius manages to sire a son, (who we'll call "C. Julius Caesar Agrippa"), he'll probably be wed to one of Germanicus' daughters to further unite the family.

Other major power players during the reign of Gaius will probably include Antonia Minor (his mother-in-law), Drusus the Younger (Tiberius' son), Sulpicius Quirinius (who was appointed rector and advisor to Gaius by Augustus and only later sent to Syria as governor after the boy's death) and later, the sons of Germanicus.

Interesting possibilities. If you feel bold enough write a TL. I for one would enjoy it.

I just may do that when I have the time, after the semester ends!
 
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I'd say the Cesarian Dynasty lasting another century (in what OTL calls the latter 2nd Century) is a real possibility. If anyone does a TL based on this idea, they should definitely have a different prefect appointed in Judea, who in turn spares the life of one Jeshua of Nazareth (for maximum butterflies).
 

forget

Banned
Sounds like the beginnings of a really great TL here, i look forward to any TL that eventuates from the matter.
 
Sounds like the beginnings of a really great TL here, i look forward to any TL that eventuates from the matter.

I hope to write it very soon! I've already started the preliminary research and notes, so we'll see. I'm still surprised that nobody else has thought to do it here yet!
 
I could see Gaius allowing Germanicus to complete the conquest of Germania, if not doing it himself.

:( Haven't I written enough on why that just isn't going to work? :(

In case I've not- Germania in the first century doesn't have the socio-economic basis for Roman rule to work. The Romans can march around and defeat as many Germans as they want, but they're no more going to get a functioning Germanic province than they could get a functioning Sahara desert province. Anyway.

Otherwise, though, this does sound interesting. I'm doing a module on Augustus this year at University, and we've covered quite a lot already. In the next few weeks we'll be looking at his policies for the succession, so if there's any help you need, I'd be happy to oblige!
 
I'd say the Cesarian Dynasty lasting another century (in what OTL calls the latter 2nd Century) is a real possibility. If anyone does a TL based on this idea, they should definitely have a different prefect appointed in Judea, who in turn spares the life of one Jeshua of Nazareth (for maximum butterflies).

I'd say banishment, having him end up in the jewish disapoa in Ctesiphon in Parthia ... banishments are not an unknown way to handle those seen as religious demagogs
 
:( Haven't I written enough on why that just isn't going to work? :(

In case I've not- Germania in the first century doesn't have the socio-economic basis for Roman rule to work. The Romans can march around and defeat as many Germans as they want, but they're no more going to get a functioning Germanic province than they could get a functioning Sahara desert province. Anyway.

Mea maxima culpa :eek: I'm rather embarrassed to admit that I don't know much about Roman operations in Germania at this period aside from the basics. I'll make a point of looking through old posts and reading what you've written on the subject.

On another note: If I may, in your opinion, how do you think Germanicus is going to fare in this scenario? Your post got me thinking: Augustus was rather adamant about not expanding further into Germania in any case, and I would expect Gaius, being carefully brought up and groomed by his grandfather, would heed this advice. Perhaps he won't take too kindly to Germanicus' ventures there, if they occur at all ITTL?

Otherwise, though, this does sound interesting. I'm doing a module on Augustus this year at University, and we've covered quite a lot already. In the next few weeks we'll be looking at his policies for the succession, so if there's any help you need, I'd be happy to oblige!

Yes, I would be very interested and would greatly appreciate any assistance that you could offer! If you happened to have read my earlier (sadly unfinished) TL set in Antiquity, Blood & Gold, you'll know that I'm a very detail oriented writer when it comes to any TL's that I post here, and I plan to exhaust myself with research before anything is submitted. I find realism VERY important, and any criticism or suggestions that can be provided will be gratefully accepted.
 
Younger brother Postumus probably survives too, for good or ill. He had a reputation as brutish, although no details have come down, and could have been a headache for Gaius eventually.

He would have been next in line for the throne until Gaius had a son, which would determine his career.
 
Mea maxima culpa :eek: I'm rather embarrassed to admit that I don't know much about Roman operations in Germania at this period aside from the basics. I'll make a point of looking through old posts and reading what you've written on the subject.

:)

To summarise my argument, which derives from that of Prof. Peter Heather, a Roman Germany is difficult because Romanisation depends on the co-option into the Roman system of an existing local elite of landowners who inhabit towns. This structure existed in pre-Roman Gaul, and even in lowland Britain, but was distinctly lacking in Germania until the third century at the earliest. There's basically no foundation for Romanisation to work upon.

Furthermore, the Rhine is a good defensive frontier for the Romans in a way that, say, the Elbe isn't, because it can be supplied via the Moselle from the Mediterranean. People here quite often forget that first century Rome was a Mediterranean state, not a continental European one.

Endymion said:
On another note: If I may, in your opinion, how do you think Germanicus is going to fare in this scenario? Your post got me thinking: Augustus was rather adamant about not expanding further into Germania in any case, and I would expect Gaius, being carefully brought up and groomed by his grandfather, would heed this advice. Perhaps he won't take too kindly to Germanicus' ventures there, if they occur at all ITTL?

Wasn't Augustus mainly only against further Germanic adventures after the Teutoberger Wald disaster? Obviously here that won't occur at the same time, though I think the chances of a similar defeat for the Romans are quite high.

As for Germanicus, I'm not sure, really- first century Rome is definitely not my strong point. I suppose the two options are that he could either effectively serve as the Agrippa to Gaius' Augustus, a loyal general and close ally who was understood to almost be the equal of the Princeps or a tragically wronged figure, betrayed by Gaius. Or even both!

Endymion said:
Yes, I would be very interested and would greatly appreciate any assistance that you could offer! If you happened to have read my earlier (sadly unfinished) TL set in Antiquity, Blood & Gold, you'll know that I'm a very detail oriented writer when it comes to any TL's that I post here, and I plan to exhaust myself with research before anything is submitted. I find realism VERY important, and any criticism or suggestions that can be provided will be gratefully accepted.

I'll see what I can do! :)
 
I look forward to reading your proposed timeline Endymion. It is entirely possible, and probably even likely, that the survival of Gaius would butterfly the Teutoburg disaster. A number of possibilities arise but it may eventuate that Gaius will be in command of the Illyrian Revolt, not Tiberius. Now you seem to think that Tiberius' exile would still be in place, that is your decision but bear in mind Gaius had permitted Tiberius' return before he died in OTL. So it depends on your POD. If Tiberius has returned to Rome he would be a good candidate to take command of the three legions in Germania, which in my opinion would prevent the Teutoburg disaster. As we know Tiberius is a very competent and cautious commander. However his personality was quite cold and he may be unable to prevent some sort of rebellion in Germania. If this is the case he is, in my opinion, infinitely more prepared than Varus to deal with it. Varus was not only an incompetent general, but also an incompetent governor and he needlessly provoked many Germanic tribes who might otherwise have opted to sit out Arminius' revolt.

Another figure who could be in command of Germania is also Germanicus himself, since he played a small role in the Illyrian Revolt OTL there's no reason this role might go to someone else with a surviving Gaius. In my Roman TL which POD is the survival of Nero Claudius Drusus (Gaius' father in law) I actually put Varus in this role which leads to a parallel disaster in the fictional Battle of Kupa in Illyria not Germania.
 
Wasn't Augustus mainly only against further Germanic adventures after the Teutoberger Wald disaster? Obviously here that won't occur at the same time, though I think the chances of a similar defeat for the Romans are quite high.

Yes, that's actually what I meant. I see Varus' disaster happening on schedule as in OTL, more or less, since nothing really exists to butterfly it away. As Augustus' intended heir in this scenario, Gaius will most likely serve in the same military commands as Tiberius in OTL—i.e. Germania from 6 to 9 AD, and then be sent to quell the Illyrian Revolt, which will be a priority for Augustus and a way to give Gaius crucial military experience as future princeps. This means that Varus will probably still be left in command in Germania.

As for Germanicus, I'm not sure, really- first century Rome is definitely not my strong point. I suppose the two options are that he could either effectively serve as the Agrippa to Gaius' Augustus, a loyal general and close ally who was understood to almost be the equal of the Princeps or a tragically wronged figure, betrayed by Gaius.

Makes sense, after all, didn't Maecenas reportedly tell Augustus at one point that Agrippa had risen so high, he had only two possible choices for his future: either have him marry Julia and groom him as successor, or put him to death as a threat? I see Germanicus fate being much the same: either adopted as heir, or done away with if Gaius has someone else in mind. In OTL, Tiberius suffered a backlash from the plebs when Germanicus died, since he was accused of poisoning him. ITTL, Gaius may just be popular enough with the Roman people to avoid suspicion or accusation.

A number of possibilities arise but it may eventuate that Gaius will be in command of the Illyrian Revolt, not Tiberius. Now you seem to think that Tiberius' exile would still be in place, that is your decision but bear in mind Gaius had permitted Tiberius' return before he died in OTL. So it depends on your POD.

Actually, when Tiberius sought permission to return from exile, the matter was left up to Gaius by Augustus. Gaius agreed to allow him to return, specifically with the stipulation that Tiberius hold no public office or command, but instead live out his life in Rome as a private citizen. Gaius and his stepfather never really got along, and Augustus probably never forgave him for his sudden retirement, so Tiberius' future doesn't really look all that great in this scenario. This is why I don't see many butterflies or great changes during the final years of Augustus with a surviving Gaius—essentially Gaius just replaces Tiberius and receives all of his military commands and offices (possibly with some modifications) until he formally takes power as Princeps.
 
Just another thought: would it be likely for Gaius to recall his mother from exile, after Augustus' death? Or will Julia be left to die in disgrace and obscurity at Rhegium?
 
Just another thought: would it be likely for Gaius to recall his mother from exile, after Augustus' death? Or will Julia be left to die in disgrace and obscurity at Rhegium?

That's an interesting idea! I imagine some kind of rehabilitation would be in store, since it is his mother and the daughter of Augustus. It might be limited to keeping her under house arrest but is far better conditions.
 
That's an interesting idea! I imagine some kind of rehabilitation would be in store, since it is his mother and the daughter of Augustus. It might be limited to keeping her under house arrest but is far better conditions.

Exactly. I always felt sorry for Julia, considering what a tragic figure she is. There are indications that her exile for adultery wasn't all that it seemed, and that she may have been intriguing with Iullus Antonius in order to marry him and provide a better interrim successor to Augustus until her son came to maturity.
 
Exactly. I always felt sorry for Julia, considering what a tragic figure she is. There are indications that her exile for adultery wasn't all that it seemed, and that she may have been intriguing with Iullus Antonius in order to marry him and provide a better interrim successor to Augustus until her son came to maturity.

I suppose its a sense of irony that Marc Antony had the last laugh of sorts since his descendants continued to play a major role in the Empire long after Augustus' death.
 
First off, I must say that I am super excited for this TL and second I wonder what role Agrippa Posthumous will play. He is afterall the sole heir of Agrippa. Thirdly what role will Drusus (Tiberius's Son) play in this TL. He was after all Gaius's Step-Brother, an apparently a skilled military commander and administator, and in OTL a close friend of Germanicus... I could see Drusus or Germanicus evolving into a Marcus Agrippa role
 
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