Gadaffi staying the paraiah

What if Gaddaffi did not give up his nuclear program and maintained his chemical stockpile?

I just read this article from the NYT on North Korea drawing the lesson from the Libyan intervention that Gaddaffi would have been better off staying a pariah and not disarm.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/25/world/asia/25korea.html


except that if he had used any WMD's in a similar situation to the civil war/rebellion/multinational intervention of OTL, you can be damned sure it would result in a full scale escalation by all involved foreign powers.
 
except that if he had used any WMD's in a similar situation to the civil war/rebellion/multinational intervention of OTL, you can be damned sure it would result in a full scale escalation by all involved foreign powers.

He still might be able to smuggle out some blueprints and enriched uranium to sell off for support. The House of Saud might be interested. Chavez... Ehh.
 
He still might be able to smuggle out some blueprints and enriched uranium to sell off for support. The House of Saud might be interested. Chavez... Ehh.

I doubt Chavez would be interested. He's happy playing the demagogue, getting influence in Latin America and selling the US his oil.

That's why I didn't buy that garbage about him offering Gaddafi exile - he's brash to the point of irritation and dyed in the wool Third World (in the political sense) populist but he's not that stupid.
 
I doubt Chavez would be interested. He's happy playing the demagogue, getting influence in Latin America and selling the US his oil.

That's why I didn't buy that garbage about him offering Gaddafi exile - he's brash to the point of irritation and dyed in the wool Third World (in the political sense) populist but he's not that stupid.

Well, there is always Sudan. Ghadaffi has historically had close ties to Omar al-Bashir, so it would not be surprising if his old fried offered Ghadaffi a home in exile. The move might be a PR disaster, but considering Mr. al-Bashir is already indicted by the World Court for genocide, it is not likely that there is much the "Global Community" could do to dissuade him.

That being said, I would not rule out Venezuela. Chavez likes to go on about being the enemy of the "American Empire" so it would be an easy way for him to stick it to the USA by taking in its deposed enemy. Plus, the two have a cordial personal relationship, and share a very similar leadership style and background, though Chavez has mostly confined his aggression to his rhetoric.


Returning the the original question, I think we would be seeing a very different situation if Ghadaffi still had credible stockpiles of WMDs. The major US/NATO Air base at Naval Air Station Sigonella would easily be within striking distance of Libyan SCUD missiles. Just a single SCUD with a chemical payload could kill hundreds of servicemen. The last time he was attacked by the US the Libyans actually did launch a perfunctory attack on a US base (Lampedusa) using their SCUDs.

It would still be possible for the Allies to strike Libya, but it would have required a much larger air campaign by USAF and USN pilots, like the "SCUD hunts" of the Gulf War. However, the risk factor of the operation goes way up if there are WMDs present, and that could easily be enough to make Obama (or perhaps Hillary) blink.
 

Markus

Banned
What if Gaddaffi did not give up his nuclear program and maintained his chemical stockpile?

I just read this article from the NYT on North Korea drawing the lesson from the Libyan intervention that Gaddaffi would have been better off staying a pariah and not disarm.

Did he have a choice? Most of his Air Force became inoperational due to the embargo and his army is a Cold War museum.
 
Did he have a choice? Most of his Air Force became inoperational due to the embargo and his army is a Cold War museum.

Lifting the embargo did him no good in the end. His army is still a museum and his updated air force is useless against NATO. He was a lot more secure with WMD in his pocket.

For a pariah it seems, there are no advantages coming in from the cold. You're going to get old and probably have to put down an uprising which makes you a pariah again. And no amount of modern hardware has the deterrent value of some cheap WMDs.
 
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