What if Götaland (or at least Västergötland) had never become a part of Sweden, but either had become independent or a part of Denmark (or less likely, Norway)? How would this have influenced the power relations inside Scandinavia? Obviously it would have made Sweden an even more eastward-oriented power, as it would not get access to Kattegat and Skagerrak. POD could be as early as you want.