would be tricky, as as far as i'm aware the three swedish crowns (väster/öster götaland and svearland) was while not directly unified, they had a tendency to sort it out so the same king sat on all three thrones, and it was most often the götalands (or rather, the nobility hailing from those areas) that called the shots the longer into the unification process they got. Svearland alone would be to weak both in population and technology (as most technology, specially military came from the South, from Central Europe through north Germany and Denmark), to stay independent for a considerable amount of time, specially as they could very easily be typecasted as hearthens as they're to far away from the 'civilized' church, resulting in a Baltic Crusader starting out making them a port-of-call not brothering with the fact that they might already be christians (in name at least)
a smaller change so they simply have no coast to the west would be somewhat more likely.