Future of the Fate of the Central Powers in a CP Victory World: Views

Somehow neither Luddendorf nor Hindenburg strike me as the sprt of types whod become dictators in the face of the Emperor - theyre just too conservative about it. Now, the Reichstag, thats another matter alltogether. They could conspire with various conservative groups, and maybe even the Emperor himself to have the Reichtags power curtailed in what Matthais aptly called the patriotic afterglow of victory.

My understanding is that by 1917 Wilhelm had promised constitutional reform. Is this wrong? Of course, the result would be the same: A disenfranchised SPD that might be willing to go into some sort of resistance.

Anyway, the patriotic afterglow seems kidna dubious. It iddn't keep Churchill in power after WW2; and by 1922 Labor was on the upswing in Britain.

Gven that Germany will be in more pressing economic straits (and concessions for cartels in the ruins of the Ukraine aren't gonna help the workers)...

Still, I dont think problems would occur immidatly. Id give it ten yeras, too, until the shit really hits the fan. Ten years of colonial wars trying to hodl the eastenr empire together, that is, with many disgrunted soldiers thus embracing leftist thought - just like Portugal IOTL 1974. A German Carnation Revolution, a coup by leftist armed forces, seems possible.

Well, that depends on who thy're fighting in the east, no?
 
Everything you've said about the Ottomans is so incredibly off-base, but I've already said all this a million times and I know you in particular have participated in these threads. You really need to do some reading that isn't nationalist propaganda dreck (including Turkish).

There had been attacks on ethnic Greeks in Anatolia? Wrong. Maybe after GREECE INVADED TURKEY and burned, looted, and killed everything, but not during the course of WWI.

The idea that they hadn't been able to reform is ludicrous. How were they able to hold out for four years and win significant victories over Great Powers? The empire was at war for 12 straight years (1911-1923) and managed to survive, more or less - Russia, Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Bulgaria totally collapsed after much less.

If the CP win, the Ottomans lose NOTHING. Squat. You don't win a war and then get dismembered.

Everything you've said about the Ottomans is so incredibly off-base, but I've already said all this a million times and I know you in particular have participated in these threads. You really need to do some reading that isn't nationalist propaganda dreck (including Turkish).

There had been attacks on ethnic Greeks in Anatolia? Wrong. Maybe after GREECE INVADED TURKEY and burned, looted, and killed everything, but not during the course of WWI.

The idea that they hadn't been able to reform is ludicrous. How were they able to hold out for four years and win significant victories over Great Powers? The empire was at war for 12 straight years (1911-1923) and managed to survive, more or less - Russia, Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Bulgaria totally collapsed after much less.

If the CP win, the Ottomans lose NOTHING. Squat. You don't win a war and then get dismembered.

I agree. I'd like to officially rescind my earlier comments about the viability of the Ottoman Empire. They did were able to hold off allied offensives in both the Straits and in Palestine and Mesopotamia.

The "Arab Revolt" was insignificant. It was just the Sherif of Mecca taking an opportunity. He had no support anywhere outside the Hijaz. Without the British, he's gone in a week.

That's not to say the Ottomans don't have some fences to mend in Syria, but nothing beyond their ability to handle.

The Arab Revolt will get crushed, but I think that it will probably spark a national consciousness in the Arab population. The Ottomans' are not going to be nice in their counter-insurgency campaign, and in crushing the Arab Revolt, they will be planting the seeds of later Arab insurgency. That is not to say that the Arabs will be in revolt in the 20's, but I think that once oil is found that will certainly motivate the Arabs to claim their homeland, which just happens to include all the oil-producing territory.

What will the effect of the German victory be on British control of Egypt?

How tied are the Ottomans' to the German alliance? Is there the possibility that with Russia under the Germans' heal the British would be willing to play ball with the Ottomans in order to have some non-threatening state intervene in Russian Turkestan?

How is the Ottoman Empire going to develop? It appears that the strength of nationalism was beginning to gain appeal among the Ottoman elite before WWI (that is that the idea of a ethnically based state- the Turks, ruling over colonial peoples). Does OTL Turkish Republic represents a very real possible future for the despite the Central Powers winning WWI?

I don't see a lot of territory going their way, but they'll probably have some gains in the Caucasus.

What is the possibility of Ottoman intervention in Russian Turkestan? If the Germans pull off a successful intervention in Russia, then I don't know if the Russian state will be able to regain control of Central Asia. This could open a really big door for the Ottomans.
 
I apologize for my tone in my last post. That's what happens when you write after a night of Wagner.

The thing is, the Arab revolt only occurred in the Hijaz - and that was beduin. Crushing them is really not going to have much impact. I tihnk there might be a general impression that all Arabs of the empire were in revolt - that's not the case, and most Arabs of the empire would consider themselves to have nothing in common from a bunch of flea-bitten beduin.

What will be a problem is the horrendous suffering that Syria and Palestine endured as a result of wartime privation and the heavy-handed exactions of the CUP administration to keep the war going. I tend to think the CUP government won't survive the war very long, but if it does, it will stimulate Arab nationalism through it's strong centralist tendencies.

It all depends upon when the war ends. If it's before Jerusalem is taken, then the empire will proabably spring back fairly well. If it's after Allenby was plowing towards Damascus, it might be difficult to avoid local autonomy.

The Ottomans were tied to Germany so long as the war lasted. If it ended in a CP victory, it's unlikely Britain is going to suffer much, and the British will probably be anxious to rebuild their position in the Ottoman Empire. Also, towards the end of the war, Ottoman and German interests began to diverge, principally over the Caucasus. I'm not sure what the British position would be, but I would think the Ottomans would be preferred to the Germans or Communists. In OTL Britain intervened in Central Asia, but only so long as the war was on, and after that they extricated themselves ASAP. I would think they would not really care much if the Ottomans began to interfere so long as they were careful not to demonstrate any threatening ambitions at India's expense. I would agree this opens a big door - in OTL the size of forces active in Central Asia were small - a veteran Ottoman division could really be decisive in late 1918 or 1919. I would doubt the empire has the resources to control the region, but you could see Khiva and Bukhara become independent Ottoman client states, and maybe an Ottoman version of the old Tsarist Governor-Generalship of Turkestan.

As for how the empire would develop, the Balkan Wars certainly gave a big boost to Turkists in the CUP after the European provinces were lost. I'm not sure how things would develop - maybe some sort of structure where a centralized empire (the Turcophone portion) is in federation with the Arab provinces which are locally autonomous but still within the empire; there were discussions of solutions of that nature.


I agree. I'd like to officially rescind my earlier comments about the viability of the Ottoman Empire. They did were able to hold off allied offensives in both the Straits and in Palestine and Mesopotamia.



The Arab Revolt will get crushed, but I think that it will probably spark a national consciousness in the Arab population. The Ottomans' are not going to be nice in their counter-insurgency campaign, and in crushing the Arab Revolt, they will be planting the seeds of later Arab insurgency. That is not to say that the Arabs will be in revolt in the 20's, but I think that once oil is found that will certainly motivate the Arabs to claim their homeland, which just happens to include all the oil-producing territory.

What will the effect of the German victory be on British control of Egypt?

How tied are the Ottomans' to the German alliance? Is there the possibility that with Russia under the Germans' heal the British would be willing to play ball with the Ottomans in order to have some non-threatening state intervene in Russian Turkestan?

How is the Ottoman Empire going to develop? It appears that the strength of nationalism was beginning to gain appeal among the Ottoman elite before WWI (that is that the idea of a ethnically based state- the Turks, ruling over colonial peoples). Does OTL Turkish Republic represents a very real possible future for the despite the Central Powers winning WWI?



What is the possibility of Ottoman intervention in Russian Turkestan? If the Germans pull off a successful intervention in Russia, then I don't know if the Russian state will be able to regain control of Central Asia. This could open a really big door for the Ottomans.
 
My understanding is that by 1917 Wilhelm had promised constitutional reform. Is this wrong? Of course, the result would be the same: A disenfranchised SPD that might be willing to go into some sort of resistance.

I think that the SPD will probably end up in the kind of showdown against the military that I mentioned in an earlier post. A Germany population that is drained by holding down its eastern empire, and making sure that France and Italy are held to their treaty obligations, will probably end up supporting the SPD if it came to a showdown with the generals.

I think that how the eastern situation evolves is going to have a major effect on how the domestic political situation goes. The Bolsheviks in Russia are going to be a major impediment to the generals continued control in Germany, since I think that Russia is going to end up a major ulcer that the generals may not be able to get rid of.

Anyway, the patriotic afterglow seems kidna dubious. It iddn't keep Churchill in power after WW2; and by 1922 Labor was on the upswing in Britain.

The German people were being told that the sacrifices that they were making were for a huge victory, and now that victory has been achieved.

If your going to look to British history, then you should also look up the "Khaki" Elections after the Boer War and WWI, where the ruling governments got a huge boost from returning troops. Also look at Margaret Thacher's boost from the Argentine War.

Given that Germany will be in more pressing economic straits (and concessions for cartels in the ruins of the Ukraine aren't gonna help the workers)...

Well, that depends on who they're fighting in the east, no?

I'm really unsure how the new eastern states will take to their new status. They are now independent of the Russians, but have German appointed and backed monarchs. The Baltics will probably be alright, with the Baltic-Germans nobility maintaining control. The Finns will be okay. The Polish will probably end up being a major problem, since the the Poles have a sense of nationalism that I don't think existed to the same extent in the Ukraine.
 
Top