Funeral Games

This is good writing and (it seems) well though-out. I don't think the Soviets would suck as much fighting the Germans in Poland as they did in Finland, and that the death of Stalin should lead to greater freedom among generals to look into better strategies again.
 
With no Winter War, the Soviet Army is going to be much worse. I assume that political commissars will remain powerful, and reforms that OTL resulted in improved winter gear won't happen. Which will benefit Germany.
Maybe, but it should be possible that least some of these problems will have been highlighted in TTL's very own 'Winter War'. Couple this with Stalin's demise, and the political commissars may have lost at least some of their power.
 
Sidelines

(As requested here is an update on what is going on with Italy - if other readers want similar views, let me know I have a general plot in mind, but am happy to detour here an there to keep you all happy and me more engaged)

June 14, 1940 – Vatican City, Office of Myron Taylor, US ‘Personal’ Envoy to the Pius XII


Duke Osborne waited patiently with Taylor. The discussion had turned to Dante as it often did between the two, they shared an abiding love of the Medieval Italian’s writings and took pleasure in dissecting each part. “But I am not sure that Dante had it quite right with Simon Magus*, while I agree he may well have deserved Hell, I am not convinced that the third Bolgia. After all with Peter and the apostles paying for him** one could hope he would escape the grasp of hell.” Taylor eagerly engaged “Ah but here Dante shows his genius, he mingles Simon with all those Renaissance Popes and invites the reader to compare….” Just then the door opened and Taylor’s assistance came in. He nodded to Osborne and then spoke to Taylor. “The Gentlemen we expect has arrived, shall I show him in?” Taylor rose, “Well Duke, we will have to continue this another time. I expect that you two have more to discuss than Epics. I will leave you now.” Walking out of the room he casually exited by a second door, motioning before he left for his aid to follow.


Count Ciano entered after the others had left and crossed the room to shake Osborne’s hand. “It is a great pleasure to see you again Duke Osborne. With the current troubles it is important that the ties that bind us be reinforced by contact. Tell me that you will visit me at my home soon?” Osborne offered his professional smile. “Nothing would give me greater pleasure my dear Count. It is always important that those of us in service maintain strong contacts. It can enable us to avoid unnecessary confusion in such troubling times.” Ciano smiled and pulled taunt his uniform. Osborne noted he was in near full military dress, a hint no doubt, but as to what? “Yes and in that regard I wanted to speak with you today.” Osborne said nothing. “I had considered contacting Sir Percy, but given the recent change in government…*** Leaving the thought drift off Ciano continued, “My dear Father-in-Law has been justly upset by the changing situation in France and Poland. He was quite taken back when the Russians compelled the Germans to turn tail. Now of course things seem to be reversing themselves again.” Ciano waited for some hint, but Osborne only offered the professional smile. Ciano went on, “Now there are some in government who want us to involve Italy in the current war against France. Some even to bring us into conflict with England. I want to assure you that I am not one of those.” Osborne continued to smile but wondered if the Count meant against the allies in general or just France.


Having received no hints to the English position Ciano sighed, he would have to be more blunt. “I, of course, remain a staunch friend of England. But maintaining friendship with France is proving impossible. I can foresee conflict in the near future. What I can but hope is the timing of this conflict could be such that difficulties with your majesty’s government might be avoided. One could wonder if after the Germans conclude a peace with France whether England would feel compelled to support the French militarily.” Osborne thought furiously, this was unexpected. If French fell out of the alliance and if Italy then attacked the French what would England owe to their late allies? It certainly looked like things were coming apart rapidly. But what did the Italians want? “I personally have every faith that the French and English forces will rapidly repel the Germans.” Ciano smiled, a genuine one, matched just briefly with a knowing arch of Osborne’s eyebrows show he believed nothing of the sort. “However, I can foresee unlikely circumstances where his majesty’s government’s assurances of French territorial integrity would be more limited. I would of course have to speak to my own government and confirm my suspicions.” Ciano nodded his head in the affirmation “In such a case of course we would be most interested in only limited alternation of frontiers. The matter of the French fleet would no doubt be of significant concern here also.”


July 8, 1940 – London Times (Headlines)


Italian Navy strikes Vichy Fleet


Mers-el-Kebir, Algeria. In a surprise operation following the Italian declaration of war on the rump French state the Italian navy struck French units in harbor both from land and sea. The French commander had previously complained of harassment from British Fleet Units and surveillance by British aircraft, but his majesty’s government confirmed that no Royal Navy ships were involved in the attack. In a speech in the Commons Prime Minister Churchill states “While we can quite sympathize with our former allies, having so quickly left this struggle against Nazi barbarism leaving England and her commonwealth alone, the French can hardly expect us to engage another major power in their defense.”


July 10, 1940 – London Times (3rd Lead)


Hitler Expels Italian Ambassador


(Berlin) The German foreign minister confirmed to neutral press that the Italian Ambassador was expelled from Germany today. In a strongly worded communiqué Von Ribbentrop stated “The recent attacks on France are in direct contradiction to our agreements with both the French Republic and the Italian Government. The Fuhrer’s government most strongly warns the Italians to cease their advances in both Africa and Europe and to allow Germany to mediate a final settlement.” The foreign minister went on to say that “The most dire consequences await those who oppose an orderly imposition of new order on Europe.”



*Magus was a new testament figure who sought to buy divine power
**See Acts 8: 9 – 29
***Churchill was known to casually loath Sir Percy Loraine, in part this goes back to his connections to Turkey, of course the embassy nickname was Pompous Percy
 
June 10, 1940 - Soviet-Manchurian border, Forward Base Nabokov


Marshal Timoshenko put down his binoculars and motioned for the other officer to look slightly to the right in the direct field. “You can see the guns down there. They are out of position to stop an armor thrust and not too much use for defensive fire.” The other officer nodded, “It was that way in Mongolia too. They are poor at camouflage and keep their artillery too far forward, it works to support attacks, but is less than useless in defenses. As for armor, as far as I can tell Comrade Marshal they have no armor doctrine. Their tanks are little better than armored tractors and they deploy them in small penny pockets.” Timoshenko smiled at the general, his accent was almost Ukrainian, but there was no doubt that the man knew what he was doing. He had better. “Comrade General Zhukov you have done well. I toured the air fields yesterday and they seem well prepared too. I think we will give these yellow Imperialist a true lesson tomorrow.” Zhukov smiled back, it was the smile of a wolf, a wolf about to be set free.


June 25, 1940 – City of Harbin, Manchuko


Emperor Puyi examined the Japanese officer with some distaste, but as was the custom his face remained a calm mask. “So I am to understand than Yoshioka that the recent ‘readjustments’ to the Japanese forces is merely a temporary tactical expediency?” Yoshioka bowed in the affirmative. The Emperor continued “Then why may I ask you feel compelled to come to me and enquire into my plans here in my city? Can the Japanese army not guarantee the integrity of our realm?” Yoshioka burned red with shame and anger. Puyi was quite enjoying this, typically there was so little he could say to his keeper. “I myself have seen the Russian planes flying over our city. Can the Japanese Air Force not strike them from the sky?” Yoshioka answered “The battles to the East and West have not gone entirely in our favor, it would be better if your majesty would retire to the capital. The Kwantung is headquartered there and can keep you better informed about our inevitable victory.” Puyi smiled lightly, ‘Your inevitable victory? I can’t tell you how this puts my mind at rest dear Yoshioka. I had hope that my travel to the North hear would encourage any flagging spirits, but if there is some danger to the Court?” Yoshioka remained silent. Content with his little victory Puyi ended the interview, “Very well then we shall leave this evening assuming the Russians don’t arrive.”


June 28, 1940 – Hsinking, Manchuko – Office of Yoshijiro Umezu


General Suetaka smoked nervously as his aid gave Umezu an update on the Eastern Battles, “It appears that the Soviets have deployed several large armor groups, perhaps even divisional size*. While the garrison at Dunhua continues to resist fiercely there seems to be little we can do to relieve it.” “How many troops retreated into Dunhua?” asked Umezu. Glancing at his commander nervously the aid answered “We think that parts of three Infantry divisions are trapped in Dunhua, certainly 8th and 19th, perhaps elements of the 5th division as well. Communication is most difficult.” Suetaka put out his cigarette and stood to attention. “The defeat is completely my own. I was unable to anticipate the skill with which the Russians would use their armor. The 97s** are of little use. Only distance and sacrifice have held the Russians back from greater grains. Had I not had to report here I myself would be leading the next attack, without hope of victory.” Umezu nodded and spoke “It takes a braver man to do his duty than to seek a warrior’s death, remember ‘death is lighter than a feather and duty is heavier than a mountain. I will hear no more of you sacrificing yourself, you have done well to hold the Soviets so long, what hope we have for victory in the future is born with your sacrifice and the defenders of Dunhua.”


Umezu paced the room for a moment, lost in thought. We he turned it was obvious he had made a decision. “I have contacted the Imperial Staff in Tokyo, sending General Tojo as our envoy. He will make clear the absolute necessity of reinforcements. I have already begun to entrain units from the South and it may give you gentlemen some reassurance that the first brigades are already deploying. The Soviets may well have us between two hands, but I feel that this Eastern thrust is vulnerable. If Tojo can get us more men, and bring them up from Korea, then with the returning Chinese divisions I just may embarrass the Russians. But Dunhua must hold, tying them down while I prepare to strike back.



*Soviet armor doctrine was in flux between 39 and 41 before settling down
** Type 97 Chi-Ha tanks was the main tank deployed by the Kwantung in 39-41
 
This is fascinating. The British throwing the French to the wolves like that is an angle I haven't seen before. It's a really unique and plausible scenario with so many knock-on effects. Vichy France may become a more stalwart client state of the Nazis, and with a fascist Italy and a Axis France, Europe will be more fragmented.

Things are looking really good for the Soviets. They've got their eyes on the Nazis and are clearing up shop in Asia. It's just a question of whether or not their leadership will decapitate themselves.

Japan won't be a major military power after 1941. The Soviets are going to decimate them in China, throwing off the timing for a lunge south.
 
August 11th, 1940 – Inside the Besieged City of Duhnua, Red Castle Position


Colonel Okamura wiped his mouth for the tenth time. Strange he thought, he was thirsty beyond belief, but his body instinctively wiped even non-existent spittle. He looked along the front line of the redoubt. Most of his men were listless now, too weak, too tired, to exhausted to move. But they all had their eyes fixed at the Soviet line. It was almost an hour since the Russians had tried to overrun the position. Quite a number of the wounded Soviets were still moaning in front of his lines. How queer, he hadn’t thought about them and couldn’t remember hearing their sounds. Now that he was paying attention he could distinctly hear cries for of mama and matuska. Even a weak early either side might have sent our corpsmen under white flags to recover the wounded. Now, things were too serious. He leaned against the cool wall and began to clean his Nambu*. It had been his father’s gun and while he could have afforded a better piece, it gave him some comfort to hold the pistol and think about all the times he had shared with it.


Sergeant Hata came scurrying up the wall, careful to stay low and out of site from any Soviet sniper. “Colonel” he began “I have a message passed up from headquarters.” He held out a small satchel. Okamura took the bad and opened it. Inside in surprisingly elegant script were a short series of orders. Hata of course had no need to know the content of the message, but the sergeant had served with Okamura for almost 7 years. While no improper familiarity was used, Okamura did openly read the message, allowing Hata to ‘overhear’ the order. “Your command is informed that your position repulsed a Russian attack at 4:30 am and 11:00 am this day. We congratulate you on your attention to duty.” The colonel paused, “I suppose they didn’t hear about the attack at 9, or else it wasn’t worthy of their comment.” Hata remained silent, playing along with the game of innocent eavesdropper, but a short light snort of laughter, just under his breath could be heard. “The men of the 11th Regiment can expect to be relieved early this evening by a composite force headed by Colonel Tokuru. The 11th Regiment will return to general reserve at location Y-4. Signed General Itagaki, commander 5th Division.” Okamura looked at his sergeant. “Pass word to officers and senior NCOs we will be returned to reserve this evening, the men might hope for a hot meal, but likely as not it will be cold rice. That’s all sergeant.” Hata passed back along the line. Okamura thought that the command from Itagaki and the recent repulse of the Russians might just portend good news, but it was too soon to tell.”


August 13, 1940 – Forward Command Post, General Zhukov


“I don’t give a fuck what you thought you were supposed to do, Comrade Colonel. Your instructions were in fact quite clear. You were not to take the position, but to demonstrate against it. You wasted time, men and material. Major Bogdonovich tells me you lost better than 500 men in your last assault.” The colonel held his tongue. “You are relieved, if I want a donkey to lead lions I will call you back. Now get out of my sight.” The Colonel hurried out of Zhukov’s presence. Bogdonovich smiled with some amusement and spoke “Well you have to give some credit to the Colonel he certainly has the socialist spirit, if not the intelligence that nature gave most heads of cabbage.” Zhukov laughed and gestured for the Major to come closer. “We have to keep the Japanese pinned in the city, so attacks are necessary, else their friends may not come to their rescue. I am counting on them coming to the rescue, else I would have reduced this town to dust. Most of my armor is here, waiting for the relief force to get out onto this open ground. The air force tells me that better than five divisions, plus support troops are ready to attack. I don’t want to pry the little apes out of the dirt, I want them in the open to face us. If that idiot actually broke into Duhuna they Japanese might have called off the attack!” Zhukov paced, “Still he is brave. Assign him to command a penal unit. If he does well we can feed him back into the line, assuming he survives.”


West Point Military History, Battle of Duhuna, editor Martin Weiss


Of course the Soviets did not have the heavy tanks like the T-34 in any numbers for the battle. In fact the bulk of the Soviet armor reserved husband by Zhukov were lighter units, like the older T-28. Yet they dramatically outclassed the Japanese, who after all were supposedly on the offensive. General Yashukoka armor was obsolete, worse the Japanese had little experience in dealing with coordinated combat arms. Most Japanese commanders insisted that Yashukoka deploy his armor integrated with the infantry. This not only crippled his ability to advance rapidly, but forestalled any possibility of a timely reaction to Zhukov’s counter-attack. When on the 15th Zhukov released his reserves and plunged into the advancing Japanese they did display enormous bravery. But bravery was no match for Soviet artillery, tanks and doctrine. Yashukoka did launch a series of valiant attacks to break up the massed Soviet armor, but they were smashed by the Soviet artillery, even before he could engage Zhukov’s armor. When General Shtern smashed into the Japanese on the 18th he simply rolled over the exposed Japanese infantry and drove deep into their columns.

*Ok, OK it’s a Pistol, it wasn’t that he was just happy to see you!
 
Zhukov paced, “Still he is brave. Assign him to command a penal unit. If he does well we can feed him back into the line, assuming he survives.”
Oh Zhukov...I see what you did there. ;)
 
August 15, 1940 – Report OBW (Oberbefehlshaber West) Luftwaffe Operations UK, Internal Distribution Only

….as is apparent by Kesselring’s continued complaints as to the narrowness of the front. Operations remain focused on the interdiction of maritime traffic. Kesselring has had great success in closing the channel to shipping. Since the action on 8 August the British have apparently stopped all transits of ships. The critical issue now is can the channel battle be transitions to forward operations against the British mainland. For now Kesselring seems content to strike at air fields and tracking stations in the South. Absent other targets and lacking clear political direction this seems to be….
Of greater concern to Luftwaffe operations are the necessity to maintain sufficient forces in Polish and Lithuanian territories. According to internal reports General Kesselring is adamant that unless significant numbers of frontline fighters and bombers can be released from the East, that no victory is possible against the RAF. The recent transfer of units following the success of the French campaign has highlighted his concerns. Some 40% of new machines and 30% of current fighter strength is being deployed in the East. Field Marshal Goering has recently met with Kesselring and Sperrle. Each pressed Field Marshal Goering for a stronger commitment of forces against, however Goering remains unenthusiastic about the operation.


August 16, 1940 – Directive 16, Issued by Adolf Hitler Fuhrer and Supreme Commander of Armed Forces*

In order to compel the English to enter into negotiations to end the present conflict I intend to intensify air and sea warfare against the English homeland. I therefore order as follows:
1. The German Air Force is to engage and destroy the English Air Force with all the forces at its command. Attacks are to be directed primarily against flying units, grand installations and their supply organizations. Aircraft industry, including the manufacturing of antiaircraft equipment may be targets under the restrictions described below.

2.
After achieving air superiority the attacks maybe made against Southern ports.

3.
Air Attacks on enemy warships and merchants ships are to be prioritized.

4.
No direct attacks against civilian targets are to be executed except as to those areas engaged in maritime commerce or aircraft production.

5.
I reserve to myself the right to decide on terror attacks as a measure of reprisal, but as we are attempting to compel a negotiated settlement, such attacks shall be limited so as to not exacerbate English resolve to fight.

6.
The navy is authorized to begin the proposed intensified naval war, surface and submarine units will concentrate on cutting maritime traffic to and from the British Isles.

Farther in the Future –

…and now Sunoco Television Comedy hour presents “Yellow Perils” starring Peter Lorre as the ‘Emperor of Long Beach”

Curtain rises on a small house, the living room and kitchen are visible. The furniture is nice, but slightly run down. Alvin Childress, playing Samson and dressed as almost a caricature of the butler enters. He pulls down the front of his shirt and squares his tie. Lillian Randolf, playing Jenny a combination cook and maid, is sitting at the table shucking corn.

SamsonI hopes the Emperors in a better mood today.


Jenny – Umm huh, he was sure enough put out last night. You would think he wouldn’t carry on so when that nice Mr. Saki comes over to do the garden up. But all he keeps saying is that he don’t trust em.


Samson – I knows. Why he followed poor Saki all over the yard. He even watched him when he took his lunch. Said, that ‘you can’t trust no Japanese to not overdo it. That they are always biting off more than they can chew and its usually hims that pays the bill’ (laughter)

(Lorre playing the ‘emperor’ enters, he is dressed in a long robe with heavy black glasses obscuring his face)

Emperor – Samson, I want you and Jenny to tidy up the front room. I am expecting guests any minute.


Samson – Guests your honor?


Emperor – Yes my banker mister Sikorsky is coming over. I am hoping for some good news about those oil wells. If they are half as profitable as I hope, why we can all think about packing up and heading back to home. I’ll be able to buy my throne back!


Samson – (in a low voice to the audience) Less he’s talking about moving back to Mississippi it ain’t my home! (laughter) Don’t expect me to be eating more of that wanting soup


Emperor – What did you say Samson?


Samson – Nothin boss, just think how good it be to get some more of Miss Emperor home cooked means. Guess we won’t have to eat any more of old Jenny’s cooking!


The Emperor looks pained, obviously his wife is not good cook and the thought of her preparing meals alarms him.


Emperor – Now let’s not be to hasty. Empress Whatwrong** may be too busy to cook.


Samson – (again in low voice) Heaven above I hopes so! That women could burn water when she boils it?


The doorbell rings, Samson goes to answer the door. Igor Sikorsky is there dressed in a dark suit. He seems a little nervous. Though it is California Sikorsky is dressed with fur hat as well.


Samson – Come on in Mr. Sit or see. The Emperor is expecting ya.


Emperor – Ah my good man, it is good to see you. Samson get my banker a drink of our finest whiskey. (Samson starts to walk towards the liquor cabinet)


Sikorsky – Well with the news I have I am not sure….


Emperor – Hold on Samson make it some of the wine we got as a gift from Renault (The Emperor grabs Samson and points him towards the wine rack)


Sikorsky – You see those wells we invested in didn’t quite have as much oil as we hoped


Emperor – Wait Sampson make it one of the beers I had you pick up yesterday for chauffer (Intercepting Samson again he turns him around to pushes him towards the kitchen, Samson acts dizzy)


Sikorsky – In fact we didn’t hit any oil, well not any regular oil, we did manage to rupture a pipeline tha the navy was using…

Emperor – Make it a cup of water, use the paper cups (He grabs Samson’s lapels stops him)

Sikorsky moves into the room.


Sikorsky – I am terribly sorry of course, but we were able to sell the land back for more than we paid.


Emperor – Well that is something, perhaps a little beer is in order (Samson spins again and heads towards the kitchen)


Sikorsky – In fact we made $5,000 on the first lot


Emperor – wine (Samson spins, he is acting increasing dizzy)


Sikorsky – and $10,000 on the second


Emperor – whiskey (Samson is visible unsteady he reaches for the whiskey bottle and misses it)


Sikorsky – of course we lost $5,000 on the third lot


Samson – I knows, I knows wine, he staggers towards the rack


Sikorsky – then we lost another $5,000 on the last lot

Samson hesitates, there is a pause he is frozen between the wine and the kitchen

Sikorsky – as it is you made $5,000, but I am afraid most of that went to my commission –


Samson – Water it is! He staggers into the kitchen


*In this TL Directive 16 is different than the one (Directive 17) issued on 1 August 1940. In part this is due to the distraction provided by the brief Italian-French War and the situation on the Eastern Front. You may want to view the original at this site - http://www.alternatewars.com/WW2/WW2_Documents/Fuhrer_Directives/FD_17.htm

**Of course Wanrong, but this is a 1950s US TV show
 
From PU-36 (Soviet Field Regulations), Suggested Revisions 1940 edition


…this was shown conclusively in Marshal Timoshenko’s operations in Manchuria. Thus the advantage of light armored formations acting as advanced screening and exploitive units is self evident. While larger and heavier units can be deployed against fixed positions the mobility of lighter units makes them manifestly more adapted to the modern battlefield. Further proof of this is provided by the German fascist victory over the French in the spring campaigns. German armored units were lighter in almost all respects than their French counterparts*. By combining the speed of lightly armored units in mass formation to exploit and bypass fixed units the Soviet army has created a new doctrine in armored warfare. As a consequence of the victories in Manchuria and Poland the deployment of armor formations in large concentrations has been validated**. Further while the deployment of heavier armor units will proceed according to STAKVA plans more numerous lighter vehicles are distinction the ‘masters’ of the battlefield.


January 14, 1941 - Readiness Report, 15 Mechanized Corp (USSR), 10th Tank Division


Which by early summers should reflect the deployment of additional vehicles. We have as of this date received 25 more BT-7s and 21 T-28s, we confirm the delayed deployment of the second KV unit, while we expect it to arrive no later than July 15th this coming year. Should aggressive action be necessary to forestall any fascist aggression the Division remains ready. The attached commissar report confirms that the recent victories here in Poland and in the East have further reinforced the socialist spirit of the troops. Colonel Suvorov reports that the only a significant issue is a shortage of artillery shells of the heavy caliber. Given the expenditures in this and the Manchurian campaign….

January 21, 1941 – Yalu River Line, USSR-Japanese de facto border


Shigenori flew his Ki-27 over the River line. Just a week ago he would have been taking hostile fire from the Northern bank. Now the he could see the Russian anti-aircraft batteries but they remained silent. His finger ached for a second and he fought the temptation to begin a strafing run on the Russians. He could feel his face getting red and the shame flowing into him. The Russians had beaten them. It seemed impossible that the Imperial Army had suffered so greatly at their devil’s hands, yet there they were just across the river from Japan’s Korea. He could hear the dull voice of General Kawaka announcing the cease fire and the withdrawal of Japanese troops into Korea. Until then he had believed that the fall of Dunhua and the destruction of the Kwantung relief force were Red lies. But he saw the straggling units passing over the Yalu every day now. Sometimes he even left the air base and went up to the river to stare as the men ‘marched’ in. They wouldn’t fight again soon, he was sure of that. He could see defeat on their face. He heard rumors too that the Japanese cut off in China were withdrawing to the coast. Worse were the Japanese settlers streaming out of Manchukuo they told tails that froze his soul. He wondered where the defeat would end.


March 2, 1941 – STAVKA planning Meeting, Moscow


Marshal Timoshenko was in an expansive mood. The tea was excellent today and for his officers were enjoying the meeting. He could see Zhukov speaking with Konev. That tempered his mood a little. Konev was too much the political animal. But, why worry. His victory in Manchuria and the indecisive action in Poland had consolidated his control over the army. Now with his ‘Eastern’ clique he was firmly in control. The question was how best to exploit it. Voroshilov further down the table was not quite in so good a mood. ‘Too bad for him’ thought Timoshenko gleefully, the pig threw in his lot with the NKVD and now had to take the lemon. “Comrades if we might begin, we have quite a bit of work ahead of us.” The room settled down as the men found their seats. “As you know, Acting First Secretary Lazar has tasked us with providing an answer to the English proposal. While the details are to weighty for discussion I think we might come to a consensus on our opinion.” He emphasized the ‘our’ just enough so that the room understood he could just as easily said ‘his’ opinion. “The English are opening a door for us, the question is should we walk thought it? Comrade Shaposhinikov, I believe you had some initial numbers for us?”


The Soviet Chief of Staff rose and walked over to a large map pinned on the far wall. “We believe that here in the North, what we have labeled East Prussia-Lithuania the Germans have between 25 and 30 divisions. They are of mixed quality, but few armor units have been detected. Just to the South in their Polish area are another 25 to 30 divisions, here there are significant armor units, although we believe significant numbers were withdrawn for the French campaign. Moving South opposite our own positions around Krakow are 30 to 35 divisions, again we believe few armor formations. Many of these divisions are in the process of rebuilding following their defeat at Marshal Voroshilov’s hands. Along the Carpathian line another 10 to 12 divisions, strictly infantry. Our estimates are that in total the Germans may have 100 to 115 divisions by May. Most armored units will be rebuilding or absent in France. Infantry divisions will likely be understrength as well. The German Air Arm is heavily committed to its battle with the English and should be a negligible factor in any campaign.”


Shaposhinikov took a breath and continued. “Our own forces which we project to be available for a May operation are as follows, again running North to South. Opposite the Estonian and Latvian frontiers the 27th Army with 6 divisions and the 22nd Army with another 6. Directly on the Prussian-Lithuanian border the 11th Army with 9 divisions and the 20th Army with another 10, this assumes the release of the divisions from the 24th and 28th Army reserves. The Northern Strike Force tentatively under General Shtern command is composed of the 3rd Army, 10th Army and 4th Army, totaling in all 25 divisions and another 18 in reserve. The Southern Strike force under General Zhukov is composed of the 5th, 6th 16th and 26th Armies with a total of 33 divisions and another 18 in reserve. Four additional armies hold our positions against the Rumanians, with a total of 25 divisions. I believe Comrade General Zhukov will now speak as to general operations.”


Zhukov cleared his throat, “Currently we have three major contingency plans for operations against the Fascists. First is a general spoiling attack against the German allies in Rumania and Lithuania. This would entail re-deployment of significant forces form the 4th and 5th armies respectively, including most of the armor corps. In this scenario five central armies would stand on the defensive in Poland. Given the terrain and general conditions the planning committee feels this option should not be adopted unless the political leadership has an overriding concern.” Eyes went down to Konev for a moment, but the General remained passive. General Shaposhnikov*** has developed the second major option, a defensive deployment. This would entail the deployment of covering armies near the current border supported with a second line, perhaps alone the old…” Zhukov hesitated for a second, about to use a name but thought better of it “…defensive line of 1938. I am sure that if we need to discuss this option more fully that Comrade General Shaposhnikov can give us more detail. But the Main forces would be some 200 miles from the current front. This leave option three, which we have codenamed Arctic. This is the most aggressive option with the bulk of our armor forces deployed in the Southern and Northern Polish salient. Each wing would basically move directly into the recent German annexations of Poland, with the strategic objective to meet South of Warsaw, then swing North towards Danzig, trapping perhaps 100 German divisions in a central pocket and another 50 against the Baltic. We expect concentrations of men and supplies to be complete no later than mid-May and operations to begin immediately thereafter.****


*This is in fact true as the German armor was distinctly inferior to the French on a one to one basis


**As in our TL the Russians created whole Mechanized Corps (although the names is not identical to US and UK Corps). In 1941 these formations were reaching their apex in concentration. Here a decreased concentration on ‘heavies’ is the lesson learned from the Polish and in particular the Manchurian Campaign.


***Shaposhnikov was Army Chief of Staff in our TL, and did suggest a defense in depth plan to Stalin


****This plan is largely based on an actual report submitted to Stalin by Timoshenko, co-signed by Zhukov and entitled “Report on the Plan of Strategic Deployment of Armed Forces of the Soviet Union to the Chairman of the council of People’s Commissars of 15 May 1941. Here is Zhukov’s opening remarks on the plan: - “Considering that Germany, at this time is mobilizing its forces and rear services, it has the capability of forestalling our deployment and delivering a surprise blow. In order to avert such a situation, I consider it necessary on no account to give the initiative to the German command, to pre-empt the enemy deployment and to attack the German Army at the moment when it is in the process of deployment and has not yet succeeded in organizing the front and cooperation of its forces” original reference (I found it in a secondary source) is V. Karpove “Zhukov” Komuinest voorushennykhsil (Communist Armed Forces) No, 5 (March, 1990), 61.
 
Soviet armor being used en masse in 1941 instead of penny-packets?

Oh boy, the Nazis are going to go down if they try anything.

Well....the big change here is not the concentration of Soviet Armor, they were concentrating in large Mechanized Corps in 40, but the actual doctrine. They are drawing the wrong lessons from Manchuria and the First Polish campaign. They think their en mass cavalry style deployment is right, it isn't. Worse they don't understand how to use armor when they get a breakthrough at all. All though 40, 41 and 42 in our TL their armor doctrine was spectacularly bad, even as their machines improved dramatically. They also really lacked ground/air coordination. Combine this with more emphasis on light units and the Germans won't be going down easy or at least not to quickly. Of course the Germans learned some things as well, future posts on that.

JC (Gemellus)
 
March 13, 1941 – Command Bunker, London


It was slightly past 11 PM and the Prime Minister was still busy at work. A late riser and a confirmed night owl he enjoyed the evening hours, often reading correspondence sent to the office that was far below his level, simply to get a feel of what was going on. There was a sharp rapping at the door and Winston looked up to see Lord Halifax standing there. “Come in, how is the Holy Fox* this evening?” Halifax offered up a smile, and pondered the PM. The man was a force of nature no doubt. Who else could keep things together during this long winter? As Halifax entered the room he could see a novel lying to one side of the papers on Winston’s desk, “Ah keeping up with Captain Hornblower?”** Churchill smiled “If we had a dozen me with half the pluck he showed the war would be long over.” “True” replied Halifax “but then what would you do after midnight?” Churchill laughed, and gestured to a chair. “So tell me Mr. Ambassador how are things in Rome?”


Halifax spoke “The Italians are cautious. They are scared of the Germans, scared that they beat the French, scared that they might beat us. Some want to throw in with Hitler and take what scraps they can get. Ciano however seems to have rallied enough of the men around el duce to see that a Italy’s true interest lie elsewhere. Of course the oil we send them help, and letting them have Tunisia and Corsica seems to have sated them. The thrashing they got on the French border also motivates some in the Army at least for a rematch. If we can pull of this alliance with the Russians I think they will live up to their agreements.” Churchill was silent, Halifax continued “But they won’t directly enter the war until after the Russians attack, the Count was firm on that. Nothing until 30 days after the Bear moves. Then they will open the Austrian front, and let us base out of Corsica.”


“I spoke with Sir Andrew.*** He has said that the Italians are letting us inspect the facilities on Corsica and even do some improvements on the air fields there. He said the O’Connor is forming up what he can. Of course we are still short of men.” Winston sighed “When I think of all those Tommys safe abed in Amsterdam, when we need them now.” Halifax replied “But Winston the greater the glory eh? Those shall hold their manhood cheap that they aren’t with us now.” Churchill laughed aloud and pounded the desk. “Yes, yes” he said, then turned somber as the sound of air raid sirens were faintly heard. “There is Jerry over for another attack on the docks. Were back now in the South you know.**** Most of the old airdromes are back, but they take a pounding from the Nazi’s. But we are winning. Dowding assures me that the ring will hold this time. The Germans seem to know it themselves, their more cautious. Now if we can just light another fire or two under Herr Hitler we can get back in this war.”


March 22, 1941 – Report from Wehrmachtsfürsorge- und versorgungsabteilung


…that his office recognizes the great difficulty units faced during the last winter campaign fought against the Russian forces. Accordingly contracts have been let to the appropriate firms after consideration of the prototypes referred to in the Report of 22 December 41. Sufficient stockpiles of goods are also being gathered from occupied areas including depots in France and Belgium. Taken in total we can expect that Wehrmacht forces should be equipped no later than the early winter of 41, assuming that the conditions outline in section 7 of this …..



*Churchill’s nickname for Halifax
** Churchill was an avid reader of Forrester’s Horatio Hornblower
***Cunningham, C-in-C of the Royal navy in the Med
****In our TL the RAF planned to pull out of the South in the event losses got to high.
 
April 4, 1941 – Berlin, Office of Admiral Canaris, Abwehr


“The field reports really leave no doubt.” Said Canaris “The Russians are mobilizing for a general attack. We have detected two major concentrations, one here in the North of Poland, along the 1940 stop line and another here in the South, centered on Krakow. The Luftwaffe confirms that the Soviets are putting up more and more fighters making clandestine reconnaissance very difficult. They confirm that along with the buildup in armor the Russians are also forward loading their artillery parks and airdromes. Our special intelligence confirms most of this and that there are two other concentrations of troops opposite the Rumanians and Lithuanian borders. However we believe that both of those are either defensive or designed to bluff us. We haven’t detected any increased armor in either area and the Luftwaffe says that reconnaissance over each is not as difficult as the two Polish areas. It is therefore my considered opinion General that the Russians are preparing to enter the war. I would guess no later than the end or middle of May, perhaps as early as the 1st, but they don’t appear to be quite ready for that yet.”


General Halder shook his head. Most of what Canaris told him he could confirm though army reconnaissance. “You know what a war in the East will mean? The English have stopped our air assault over the South of England. We can contest the channel, but frankly we have lost the initiative there. The Navy is hopeless, they surface fleet is bottled up and too small to do any good, the U-boats lack enough bases and range to cut off the Isles. We have already be shipping units back East for most of the winter, because the corporal doesn’t trust the Russians, now I have to confirm that they plan to attack? He will lose his mind!” Canaris nodded knowingly. One of the dachshunds that followed the Admiral everywhere left its box and walked over to Halder. The General smiled, like the head of Intelligence, Halder shared a strong love of dogs. He reached down and absent mindedly stroked the dog, “A war against Russia now, with England still in the fight? It can’t end well for us. We have the interior lines, and we will sweep them out of the air, but its’ like an elephant fighting an anthill. We will kill millions but in the end the ants will drag us down.”


Canaris took a short breath and spoke, “Well the champagne salesman won’t save us. But maybe if we give them a good licking, break two or three of their armies we can…” Halder interrupted him. "We have been working on our own operation since winter. But the corporal waxes and wanes. One week it is we attack in the east on such and such a date, the next he equivocates. He hates the Russians but I think the Polish campaign has made him cautious. He had a feel for Stalin you know, he was certain what the bastard would do. Now he sees the Russians running riot in China and it gives him pause. No, I guess we will have to soldier on. We are gamed out a scenario of two if the Russian’s attack, we think we can handle them quite well. The problem is where to go after the initial victories. It’s all very well to talk about Lebensraum but it’s a damn big place!”


April 19, 1941 – Jewish Autonomous Region, formerly Heilongjiang province of Manchukuo


Another train pulled into the disbursal station at Harbin. A squad of bored looking NKVD troops, in their distinctive blue hats, came up to meet the train. The lieutenant in charge took out a large megaphone, as the steam hissing from the breaks gave way to silence he began to shout. “All persons are to immediately dismount the train. All persons are to immediately dismount the train. You have arrived at your disbursal station and will move from here to your new settlement.” Tentatively several dozen, then hundreds of people exit the train onto the platform. Some were Hasidic, with long black coats and curls, most however were simple the typical jumble of humanity. An NKVD officer dismounted the train and walked over to his native counterpart. Quickly checking rank and noting he was the superior officer the Native troops came to attention. “Welcome to Harbin Comrade Captain.” The arriving officer grunted “I’ve been here before this is my 5th trip to this pisshole. All to deliver another couple thousand Jews and Poles to our new province.” The statement required no response so the lieutenant remained silent. “I need a bath and something to drink.” On firmer ground now the lieutenant pulled out a flask. “I carry some to keep the chill off my bones.” Taking the proffered liquor the Captain took a drink. “Ah…quite good. Yes, I can see how this would keep the chill down. In any event let’s sign them in. He pulled up a clipboard in his left hand. “I have 3,876 bordered Moscow, transit camp 17, with 104 dead or disposed of during transit. That leaves 3,772 for settlement. You have transport for the countryside?”
 
The Curtain Goes up

From “Stumbling Giant” McKenzie Curren, West Cross Publishing, 1978


Of course the Soviet Air Force was technologically inferior to the Luftwaffe of 1941. While some excellent platforms were being deployed, the mainline Soviet fighter that accompanied the initial attacks against German occupied Poland were the I-16. Nicknamed the Donkey by Soviet pilots the I-16 had performed well in Spain and China. But the more innovative Air Marshals like Novikov were disturbed by Soviet loses to the newer Japanese plan. But even with adequate planes the Soviets suffered a critical disadvantage, German pilots had been at war for 2 years, many had clocked hundreds of hours of combat, almost all of the Russians were novices. The Soviets did possess three potential advantages, greater numbers, initiative as to target selection and the possibility of surprise. Unfortunately the Germans had another technological advantage that stripped the Russians of both the initiative and surprise.


Following the winding down of the cross channel air campaign the Germans had constructed a series of interlocking Radar stations along the Eastern front. Copying the Kammhuber line in the West the Germans had complete coverage from the Baltic to the Rumanian border, and a independent system surrounding the Rumanian oil fields. The attack of 24 May was detected while the Soviets were concentrating their planes over their air fields. Worse the Soviets had not deployed radios in any of their fighters, where the Germans had long developed a coordinated response system. When the first Soviet flights crossed the border, the Luftwaffe was waiting. More than 4,000 Soviet planes were launched at the beginning of the campaign; more than a 1,000 were shot down. Worse followed, the German bombers followed the disorganized Soviets back to their bases. The JU-88 in fact was so fast in comparison to Soviet fighters that the bombers often arrived before the returning Soviets. The results were catastrophic. Another 1,000 Soviet planes were lost on the ground or crashed when they arrived at air fields that were no longer functional.


On 25 May the Soviets attempted to renew the contest. Again they concentrated the planes over air fields and then sortied into German occupied Poland in an attempt to support the developing ground attack. But before they could strike the Germans launched their own concentrated attacks on the Soviet Air Fields. Taking off at 03:00 the Germans caught a large number of Soviet planes taxing for takeoff or readying. The 109s cleared the skies as German ground attack and medium bombers struck. Soviet losses again were several hundred planes and their supporting attacks were severely disrupted. Those planes that did launch to support the Russian ground forces were soon in running battles with radar and radio directed Luftwaffe fighters. Few if any intervened in the ground battle. By the end of the second day the Soviet Air force was a spent force. A few units, mainly those equipped with the newer Yak-1s and more distant from the battlefield had some level of organization. But by the 3rd day the Luftwaffe had achieved local and theater wide air superiority.
 
May 25, 1941 – 4th Regiment, 10th Tank Division, Strike Force Shtern


Not for the first time Konstantin wondered where the hell the air force was. Only occasionally could he see Red Fighters flying overhead, but never any ground support planes. His Regiment had long ago passed effective artillery support, now he needed the R-Zs* now. He needed to know what was going on up ahead. Each time a scout car returned, if they returned, he only got garbled accounts of where the Germans were. Now that his infantry was lagging he could use the support. Not for the first time he wished the rest of his command had a radio. A small dip in the ground was ahead, and then a rising slope. The back of his spine itched. The Germans could be just over the ridge, maybe that was where the artillery that had hit his infantry was parked. “Load low velocity round Buka, I think the German guns may be over the ridge.” Sgt. Buka slammed a round into the 45mm main gun. “Loaded Comrade Captain” He used the signal lamp to tell the driver to accelerate. The tank leapt forward rising out of the shallow dip and moving quickly up the rise. Konstantin spared a quick look at the other tanks, most were dutifully following, except Gregor’s, that appeared stuck down in the shallow. Just then the T-26 crested the ridge.


May 25, 1941 – 173rd Regiment, 34th Infantry division – PAK company


Felix could hear the Russians before he could see them. He looked down at the door knocker** and touched its barrel. He had sighted the gun on the ridge and carefully marked off the meters. Now the whole company waited. Suddenly the first Russian tank crested, well to the left of his line of fire, gun number 4 would take that. Two more tanks came over the slope, each of these to the right. The Germans, well concealed in the woods held their fire. Finally what he was waiting for, another tank came over and he could make out the telltale antenna of a command tank. That was his. Quickly he refined his sight and gave the order…Fire. Seconds later the rest of the company opened up.


May 28, 1941 – Action Report, 34th Infantry, Lomza Sector


…The Soviet armor had been successfully separated from the infantry by a timed infantry barrage from divisional guns. The bulk of the armor was apparently lighter tanks or the T-26 or slightly heavier B-7s. The tank traps funneled the approaching armor into the positions of the 173rd Regiment supported by the PAK company. 23 Soviet vehicles were immediately knocked out. However the arrival of heavier tank, tentatively identified as T-34 abruptly discomforted our positions. Only the rapid deployment of some anti-air craft guns allowed the Regiment to successfully destroy the relieving force. By nightfall Soviet Infantry had arrived and per operational orders a careful withdraw to the secondary line was accomplished…


May 29, 1941 – Lithuanian Army Headquarters, Lithuanian Front


General Plechavicius eyed the Luftwaffe officer with some skepticism. “So you are telling me that tomorrow you will be able to fly support for my troops?” The German nodded in the affirmative “Because,” continued the Lithuanian “for the last few days support from our ally has been seriously lacking.” The Luftwaffe colonel spoke “I have been in contact with our general headquarters for the Baltic forces and have been assured ground support missions for your troops and ours on this front will commence tomorrow. They have further assured me that Soviet thrusts have been contained in Poland and….” The General interrupted “I have little interest in Poland, I am only interested about what you can do here and now. My army is underequipped to fight the Russians and unless you can assist us the Russians will overrun my second line.” The German sensed and opportunity. “Of course if you were to allow operational command of…” Again the Lithuanian interrupted. “President Semtona invited you into this country, he did not invite you into our beds. The army will remain independent.” The German nodded and smiled. Time would tell.


May 29, 1941 – Belgrade, Apartment of Prince Paul Karadordevic


The Regent offered a sherry to his visitor, who spoke “So as you can see your majesty your adherence to the recent German treaty places your country in a most difficult position.” Paul waved his hand and spoke “Mr. Smith, your government can speak all it wants about difficult positions, but unlike England I do not have a channel between me and the Germans, much less the Italians. Who I will remind you until quite recently were not seen as ‘allies’ of your government either. I am trying to keep my country alive in a pool filled with sharks. Now you tell me that the Russians have entered the war and that means the Germans will lose. But last year the Germans stopped the Russians and then overran France. Now you want me to risk the future of my nation?” Mr. Smith sipped the sherry, “Excellent, really excellent. You have a refined palate. But you must know that a choice must be made soon. If Italy enters the War against the Germans they are finished, then your recent treaty will be viewed by my government and others as a betrayal. You may well be treated like the Rumanians or Hungarians. IF you don’t ally with the correct powers now and if Germany loses the war it could well be the end of Yugoslavia.” Prince Paul was silent for a moment, then spoke. “You know there is an old story my classics teacher told me once about an invading army. It seems they were about to invade the Peloponnese and sent a message to Sparta. It said ‘If Sparta resisted and if they lost, that the invaders would burn their city and sell the Spartans into slavery, so they had better surrender.’ The Spartans sent back a one word reply ‘If’.



*Polikarpov R-Z, the obsolete light bomber the Soviets flew at the beginning of Barbarossa
**Nickname for 3.7 cm gun
 
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