From the Trotskyist Nation: Computer, Hammer and Sickle

From the Trotskyist Nation:
Computer, Hammer and Sickle

An alternate universe where I attempt to create a cybernetic socialist USSR from a Trotskyist USSR.

PoD: wife of lenin allows lenin's testament to be revealed

Now, establishing a Trotskyist USSR is easy enough. Based on my research, Trotsky would be either elected or he demands Stalin to give up his position. If Stalin refuses, Trotsky can simply coup him with the Red Army, considering he had that power in early to middle 1923.

Appreciated if someone would give me the possible candidates for post-Trotsky administration in the 1960s, 1970s and then 1980s-1990s. Perhaps it's mostly the Left Communists, but the "Right" Communists make a comeback in either the 1970s or 1980s?

I'll be mainly focusing on post-Trotsky USSR, and I expect a big boom in science, especially political because Trotsky is more "world communism" than Stalin. I'm not sure if cybernetics is established in 1960s as there is an OTL basis for this: Project OGAS, or the 80s where everything is kinda going to shit and they need a solution to deal with the inefficiency of the somewhat bureaucratic economy, but by then I'm kind of worried cybernetics becomes obscure.

Maybe it goes like OTL from the beginning, but ends up with OGAS being funded, then if the USSR's economy does begin to break down sometime in the 1980s-1990s, OGAS might be updated, given fresh new faces and USSR turns cybernetic socialist?

Problem is, with Trotskyism market socialism would be a lot more common. Perhaps the hardliners are either in control of the KGB or not, but anyway, go Stalin mode on the market socialists?

Then, you'd have two candidates, one being cybernetic socialism and pretty obscure compared to the other candidate, which is either status quo... or something. Inspired from Berg's radio talks, Kitov could bring cybernetics into the spotlight?

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As much as I like the premise, I think there’s a bit of handwaving involved to reach a cybernetic Trotskyist USSR. Trotsky’s power struggle with Stalin wasn’t really as simple as “he demands Stalin leave or coup” - Trotsky was quite unpopular with the Politburo and among the Old Bolsheviks in general due to his arrogant personality. Krupskaya revealing Lenin’s testament would definitely harm Stalin politically but I am still not sure Trotsky could keep power and consolidate it like Stalin did: despite his amazing organizing potential and his excellent tenure as head of the Red Army, the man just wasn’t an adept politician. There was an a good quote I believe I read in Isaac Deutscher’s biography of Trotsky that goes something like: “Trotsky had enormous energy and worked like a man possessed when he was advancing the revolution, but his strength faded as the revolution receded.” When the revolution was at its zenith he was in his element, but as it calmed down and the Soviet Union settled into the new order, he was outclassed by the more adept political figures like Stalin (he held the sort of back room dealing Stalin excelled at in contempt) and eventually he lost his life for it. I think you’d need a bigger set of changes than Lenin’s testament being revealed to see Trotsky leading the USSR.

Also, I understand that OGAS and cybernetics is the end goal of the timeline, but you can’t kick Stalin out but have it “continue as OTL” until the 1960’s. The butterflies alone during the build up to the Second World War would change the political climate enormously and it shouldn’t be dismissed.

TLDR: More details on the accession of Trotsky and the subsequent effects on history would be needed for a plausible timeline, but the premise is good!
 
As much as I like the premise, I think there’s a bit of handwaving involved to reach a cybernetic Trotskyist USSR. Trotsky’s power struggle with Stalin wasn’t really as simple as “he demands Stalin leave or coup” - Trotsky was quite unpopular with the Politburo and among the Old Bolsheviks in general due to his arrogant personality. Krupskaya revealing Lenin’s testament would definitely harm Stalin politically but I am still not sure Trotsky could keep power and consolidate it like Stalin did: despite his amazing organizing potential and his excellent tenure as head of the Red Army, the man just wasn’t an adept politician. There was an a good quote I believe I read in Isaac Deutscher’s biography of Trotsky that goes something like: “Trotsky had enormous energy and worked like a man possessed when he was advancing the revolution, but his strength faded as the revolution receded.” When the revolution was at its zenith he was in his element, but as it calmed down and the Soviet Union settled into the new order, he was outclassed by the more adept political figures like Stalin (he held the sort of back room dealing Stalin excelled at in contempt) and eventually he lost his life for it. I think you’d need a bigger set of changes than Lenin’s testament being revealed to see Trotsky leading the USSR.

Also, I understand that OGAS and cybernetics is the end goal of the timeline, but you can’t kick Stalin out but have it “continue as OTL” until the 1960’s. The butterflies alone during the build up to the Second World War would change the political climate enormously and it shouldn’t be dismissed.

TLDR: More details on the accession of Trotsky and the subsequent effects on history would be needed for a plausible timeline, but the premise is good!

I see. What if Trotsky just held power using the Red Army and executed/expelled his opposition? An earlier Great Purge if you will. Then he could be succeeded by another Trotskyist? I'm looking at members of the Left Opposition right now. Perhaps Muralov, or Beloborodov? It seems that Preobrazhensky could become the head of the Gosplan or succeed him too.

If the Bavarian Communists had support from the Soviets, like sending people and guns over to the bavarians I think they could have won and established more of a bigger foothold, against the Freikorps.
Perhaps Italy becomes socialist, instead of fascist but I think it would have been fascist if Benito still was in the fascist party and did overthrow the regime.
The Spanish Civil War? I dunno, perhaps with more support from the Soviets they would've succeeded.
I'd expect the Greek Civil War would succeed in the KKE's favor, considering that the only reason they failed was due to American support, and I'd think the Soviets would have sent funds.
What do you think? Do you think a Trotskyist USSR would have led to Germany being socialist/communist, and thus WW2 wouldn't happen.
 
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I see. What if Trotsky just held power using the Red Army and executed/expelled his opposition? An earlier Great Purge if you will. Then he could be succeeded by another Trotskyist? I'm looking at members of the Left Opposition right now. Perhaps Muralov, or Beloborodov? It seems that Preobrazhensky could become the head of the Gosplan or succeed him too.

If the Bavarian Communists had support from the Soviets, like sending people and guns over to the bavarians I think they could have won and established more of a bigger foothold, against the Freikorps.
Perhaps Italy becomes socialist, instead of fascist but I think it would have been fascist if Benito still was in the fascist party and did overthrow the regime.
The Spanish Civil War? I dunno, perhaps with more support from the Soviets they would've succeeded.
I'd expect the Greek Civil War would succeed in the KKE's favor, considering that the only reason they failed was due to American support, and I'd think the Soviets would have sent funds.
What do you think? Do you think a Trotskyist USSR would have led to Germany being socialist/communist, and thus WW2 wouldn't happen.

Well, using the Red Army to liquidate the Party apparatus and install himself would fulfill the "Bonapartism" that historically many in the upper echelons thought Trotsky would try, and later applied to Tukhachevsky - I am not sure the Red Army would simply follow along or that Trotsky would even try to do that, but I would be interested in reading about it.

As for abroad, Bavaria and the German Revolution of 1918-1919 was too early to really receive Soviet aid given that it was fighting for its life in its own civil war and didn't have any direct link to Germany - although with a seperate PoD involving either WW1 itself or within Germany or even Poland falling in 1920, there are ways to bring about a Red Germany: something I have been researching for a TL myself.

I am not so sure about Italy, but I made a thread about it a while back and the consensus seems that socialists triumphing over Mussolini and the Monarchy are unlikely without serious political change in Europe - you would need rapid shift in politics and socialist revolutions in neighboring nations to see it - but it is hard given the March on Rome was in '22.

As with the others, the Spanish and Greek Civil War's really depend on what happens before it (for instance, a Red Germany or something), without the context of earlier events it is difficult to predict. I think a Trotskyist USSR could lead to Communist Germany prior to the Second World War, but it would require a specific set of events - you can make it work if it is researched and done well!
 
Well, using the Red Army to liquidate the Party apparatus and install himself would fulfill the "Bonapartism" that historically many in the upper echelons thought Trotsky would try, and later applied to Tukhachevsky - I am not sure the Red Army would simply follow along or that Trotsky would even try to do that, but I would be interested in reading about it.

As for abroad, Bavaria and the German Revolution of 1918-1919 was too early to really receive Soviet aid given that it was fighting for its life in its own civil war and didn't have any direct link to Germany - although with a seperate PoD involving either WW1 itself or within Germany or even Poland falling in 1920, there are ways to bring about a Red Germany: something I have been researching for a TL myself.

I am not so sure about Italy, but I made a thread about it a while back and the consensus seems that socialists triumphing over Mussolini and the Monarchy are unlikely without serious political change in Europe - you would need rapid shift in politics and socialist revolutions in neighboring nations to see it - but it is hard given the March on Rome was in '22.

As with the others, the Spanish and Greek Civil Wars really depends on what happens before it (for instance, a Red Germany or something), without the context of earlier events it is difficult to predict. I think a Trotskyist USSR could lead to Communist Germany prior to the Second World War, but it would require a specific set of events - you can make it work if it is researched and done well!

Perhaps Trotsky could have been affected by something like an accident during a trip, that made him rethink his life and views. You know, like a near-death experience. But, I think this might be too convenient... Trotsky was affected by periods of illnesses during the power struggle, so it's not too unrealistic. Maybe he has a bout where he gets healthy, decides to go on a trip to... say, the Urals, then his illness comes back, and without any doctors or clinics to help him, he comes close to death until his body succeeds in fighting back, and Trotsky returns to Moscow changed forever. Actually, no this already has somewhat of a historical basis.
Trotsky spent a year in the wilderness (1925) so the bout of illness during his trip would cut it short, making Trotsky go back and with his ideals changed, work on a Red Army coup by influencing the soldiers and staff around him in the coup. That way, in 1927-1928 he can execute the coup successfully, seize power and purge his opposition. There were plenty of counter-revolutionaries in the army too, so that would have to go too, preferably during this climax of the power struggle so the Red Army doesn't "coup the coup".

About a Red Germany... the main problem with the Bavarian communists was that they simply didn't have any actual soldiers or generals. The Bavarian Red Army was literally just composed of factory workers and such. There was a battle between Hoffman and Toller, which brought the Freikorps into the war. If the meeting between Hoffman and Oven was interrupted or cut short, likely through BSR spies, then the Freikorps intervention could have been slowed down or even stopped.
You are right that the Soviets in Russia couldn't help the BSR, so... But it's not so really necessary for a Trotskyist USSR. Trotsky was even more proficient overseeing the Red Army than Stalin, so I have no doubt a Trotskyist USSR would win against Germany... I could see Trotsky giving up control of the USSR to a Trotskyist successor in order to control the Red Army instead.
 
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