So, after losing all my data I had to find my resources from scratch, which actually led me to other places I didn't know, making me change quite a few parts of the original outline. Now I present to you the new and improved TL about Mexico during the Porfiriato.
Enjoy, and as always comments are welcome!
From Mexico to the World 2.0: A TL
A Short History of the Baja California War
Arguably, the most important moment in Mexican history is the conflict known as the Baja California War.
Although the War of Independence, the First Mexican-American War [1], and the French Intervention were far bigger and bloodier, in the end they failed to truly change the nation. Following each war, the coups and revolutions that plagued the country continued.
In contrast, after the Baja California War Mexico began a series of reforms that truly turned it into a strong and, save for 1908-1909, united nation.
The roots of the war can be traced to San Diego, in a man named Augustus Merrill. Inspired by the filibusters of Joseph Morehead, William Walker, and Henry Crabbs while ignoring their failures [2], and backed by the Mexican Land and Colonization Company (also known as the English Company), Merrill gathered a group of conspirators to try his luck in the peninsula
It is now known that one of the conspirators, Colonel John E. James, was planning to expose their plans before died in an accident [3].
On September 15, 1890 Mexico celebrated the 80th anniversary of the start of the War of Independence, along with the birthday of current President and dictator Porfirio Diaz.
In Baja California General Luis E. Torres, along with the rest of the government of the peninsula, celebrated in the Hotel Iturbide (owned by one of the filibusters). On the signal the “laborers” hired by the English Company, together with the bribed Mexican Guard, captured them and took over.
A week later, on September 22, the short-lived Republic of Lower California was born, its first action to send a declaration of Independence to Mexico City and a request for annexation to the United States [4].
Almost as soon as they began, their plans went up in flames. The United States immediately rejected the proposal, while the people in the peninsula rose up in revolt, which only grew worse when Diaz mobilized the army and sent it against the filibusters.
Mexico wasn't without problems, however. Due to other issues in the country, like the troubles in Yucatan, the renewed war against the Yaqui, and the rebellion of Catarino Garza [5], Diaz wasn't able to send the overwhelming force he wished. Despite this, by October 30 some 3,000 troops led by famed General Bernardo Reyes arrived in Los Algodones.
The Battle of Los Algodones in October 31 would mark the beginning of the end for the newborn nation. For a half a day the mercenaries resisted the Mexican assaults, until they were beaten by their superior training and equipment.
As they retreated, the mercenaries found their attempts to set up defensive lines frustrated by the rebellion in the peninsula, eventually having to fortify in Ensenada, capital of the Republic of Lower California.
The Siege of Ensenada is remembered by the ferocity with which the mercenaries and their Mexican supporters battled. From November 7-15 they threw everything they had at the Mexican Army, even as their supplies dried out when the two steamers provided by the English Company were captured by the American Pacific Squadron. Believing they would tortured after capture, most of them fought to the death.
Finally on November 15 the Mexican troops broke through and a brief street-to-street battle ensued, the mercenaries attempting to fight hand-to-hand as their ammunition ran out. During the chaos the government of the republic had fled, but they were captured a day later attempting to escape in San Felipe.
Against the wishes of the peninsula's people, Diaz allowed the few surviving mercenaries to go free. In exchange, however, the filibusters tried and sentenced to death. To the jubilation of Baja California, they were hanged on December 10.
[1] Of course it's the first. You can't make a Mexico TL without wars against the US.
[2] Defeated, defeated, and killed and his head stuck in a jar of alcohol.
[3] POD, in reality he did go and expose them.
[4] Pretty much what California did during the Mexican-American War.
[5] The Garza Revolution, the “prequel” to the Mexican Revolution, OTL started a year later. Here he takes advantage of the war in the peninsula.
Reactions
Although the war was fought exclusively in Mexico, it had effects around the world.
In Europe the Great Powers took joy in the American embarrassment. Their chief rival for influence in Mexico, the war was likely to push the United States away from the country.
Through they remained neutral, and were ready to quickly offer mediation in case the filibuster escalated into a real war, they didn't stop newspapers from running articles with headlines like AMERICAN IMPERIALISM or AMERICAN HYPOCRISY.
In South America, particularly the ABC nations of Argentina, Brazil, and Chile exploded in indignation. After all, hadn't the United States just assured them there would be no more taking of land by any country? They sent their support to Mexico, and congratulations after the conflict ended.
Even after being told the situation was no more than an independent filibuster, they remained weary of the Americans.
In the United States, the Baja California War was nothing short of a political disaster. Just a few months before they had hosted the First International Conference of American States [1] where they had, among other things, agreed that no country would ever take land from another.
Now a group of unknowns had to go and invade Mexico, making their words null in the eyes of Latin America. Despite their sincere claims they knew nothing of the plot, and President Diaz's apparent understanding, the damage was already done.
The filibuster, and the government's complete ignorance of it, was the main reason for the creation of the now-infamous Board of National Security a few years later [2].
Finally, in Mexico itself, the impact was revolutionary. The filibuster had proven without a doubt that, despite the many improvements and Diaz's best efforts, Mexico was still a weak nation, easy to invade.
The realization that, had the Baja conflict been a real invasion, there would have been next to nothing they could have done to stop it shook the president to the core. It led to the fateful decision he would make at the end of the year, something he had worked against since he took power in 1874 and would lead to the prominent place Mexico would take in the next century.
He would increase the size of the Army.
[1] On April 1890, and now known as the Summit of the Americas.
[2] The first of the new stuff in this version of the TL.