From Exile to Triumph: a Western Roman Timeline

They actually did find rice at a roman archaeological site in France I think

As I have mentioned a couple of times, the Romans did know rice. But they did not grow it, and they used it as a medicine. In short, it was an imported luxury good. What surprised me the most (and the reason why I posted the original suggestion) is that apparently there were available description of the rice as staple food (Theophrastus) and about the details of its cultivation (Aristobolus, and Theofrastus itself to some degree), but nevertheless, we had to wait for 1468 or so to have the first recorded italian production of rice. And besides, nowadays Italy produces roughly 50% or European rice, which is why made an earlier introduction of rice intriguing. A sort of farm-wank for TTL WRE, now that I think about it.
 
As I have mentioned a couple of times, the Romans did know rice. But they did not grow it, and they used it as a medicine. In short, it was an imported luxury good. What surprised me the most (and the reason why I posted the original suggestion) is that apparently there were available description of the rice as staple food (Theophrastus) and about the details of its cultivation (Aristobolus, and Theofrastus itself to some degree), but nevertheless, we had to wait for 1468 or so to have the first recorded italian production of rice. And besides, nowadays Italy produces roughly 50% or European rice, which is why made an earlier introduction of rice intriguing. A sort of farm-wank for TTL WRE, now that I think about it.
I think that would be very cool if the Romans were trying to become an exporter of food and spices started to produce rice and got a monopoly in the west
 
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Speaking of "flow of food", I guess that without any TTL version Gothic wars the population of the italian peninsula will experience at least relative growth, not to mention a greater urban population. Realistically, even if the Empire manages to take back some parts of Africa (say, Carthage and its surroundings) this may well not be sufficient. Could this trigger some (at least minor) agricultural innovation? The cultivation of rice as staple food in Northern Italy, for example. I know the Romans considered it a spice and used it just in medicine, but apparently Theophrastus knew it was used as a "regular cereal" in Asia. I know this might be a bit of a stretch, since the first "risaia" in Italy dates to 1468, but I mean, OTL delay in the use of rice in Italy seems to me a lot more surprising. Maybe ITTL the "risotto alla milanese" has some garum in it...
Definitely the lack of any events resembling the OTL gothic war represent (IMO) the best thing that could ever happen to Italy and its inhabitants. Maybe I could exaggerate but it seems to me that the gothic war literally crippled the Italo-Romans to the point that its negative effects lasted for centuries ( just think how different would have been european history with a completely unified medieval Italy). That’s one of the reasons I don’t like Iustinianus.

Since the beginning of this timeline I tried to describe the imperial need to supply the army and the city of Rome. In the future I would return to the question ( as I would like to avoid consecutive updates centered around one single topic) but as RyuDrago already explained, you shouldn’t underestimate Italic agriculture. It’s more a question of “prestige”, where the inhabitants of the capital receive foods, thus elevating the city to a superior status ( ideologically and demographically).

About the introduction of rice in Italy I have to be honest I didn’t have considered so far, the possibility of an alternate ( and accelerated) agricultural and technological development. This because I don’t want to favour the Romans too much before starting a new age of Crisis ( which would probably coincide with the final part of this timeline). However as long as I don’t write anything about the topic everything is possible in the future.
 
Chapter XXXI: Flavius Iustinus Augustus
Chapter XXXI

In the eyes of the people who lived at the beginning of the VI century, the gothic kingdom in Spain appeared as the target of God’s wrath. Alaric’s death at Vouille represented a real misfortune for the Goths, but no one could ever imagine that it was only the beginning of a long series of unfortunate events. Shortly after defeating the Roman usurper Iovinus, Gesalec moved against the Suebic kingdom in the north in order to stop their attacks. This campaign represented Gesalec’s only opportunity to strengthen his maimed kingdom by bringing the Suebi under Gothic hegemony, thus finally uniting the Iberian peninsula. However the war was neither quick nor glorious as the Suebi proved elusive, while the gothic army was growing unhappy with Gesalec’s inability to bring this war to an end. Finally the two armies clashed near the city of Salmantica in 514 AC. For the second time in less than a decade the Goths suffered a crushing defeat. For a second time a gothic king found death while trying to preserve the integrity of his own kingdom. This time however neither the Suebic king Veremund, nor any of his soldier initially claimed the victory against Gesalec and soon the goths started to blame one of Gesalec’s commanders for the recent defeat. Nonetheless the kingdom required a king and the war required a leader. Before dying, Gesalec sired two sons: Alaric and Theodoric, respectively now 3 and 2 years old. Thus the real power was exerted by their mother Amalafrida. Her position as regent for her two sons was immediately weakened by the peace treaty she concluded with Veremund: the suebic kingdom would expand its territories, with the city of Salmantica now representing the limit of its eastern expansion while the Tagus river represented its southern border. Only time would tell if the gothic kingdom would survive this crisis.

On the other end of the Mediterranean, the eastern half of the empire was at a turning point. In 518 AC emperor Anastasius died of old age. The old emperor had no child but many relatives, who could succeed him. His niece Irene was married to the former consul Flavius Olybrius Iunior, emperor Olybrius’ grandson and Marcianus brother-in-law, thus making him a valid and prestigious candidate for throne. A second option was the former eastern consul Flavius Probus, Anastasius’ nephew. Finally there were the two brothers Hypatius and Pompeius who could claim the throne. However none of these pretenders had the support of the key elements of the imperial palace in Constantinople, probably due to the religious affiliation of emperor Anastasius. After Anastasius’ death, the only military units that resided inside the imperial capital and thus were able to influence the election of the new emperor, were the Scholae Palatinae, the Domestici and the Excubitores. While the first two units were a creation of the early IV century and now they represented a sort of parade regiments, the Excubitores formed a smaller but better equipped and trained elite unit. After having proposed several candidates as possible successor to the deceased emperor, including the Illyrian “Candidatus” ( member of the Emperor’s bodyguard) Pietrus Sabbatius, the Excubitores were able to impose their own candidate to the other military units and the Senate. The new emperor of the east was an Illyrian soldier originating from Bederiana, the Comes Excubitorum Iustinus.

The new emperor of the east was old and childless but he didn’t lack relatives. One of them was that Pietrus Sabbatius who had refused the throne and was Iustinus’s nephew. Soon this young and ambitious man, who would take the name of Iustinianus after his uncle, would become one of the most powerful member of the imperial administration, receiving the title of Magister Militum, Consul and later Patricius. It didn’t take long before the new emperor received the official congratulations from the western court, while the western Caesar Procopius would deliver a great speech in front of the eastern Senate, praising the military skills of the new emperor and his Chalcedonian faith. Even thought the two Augustii didn’t enjoy a special relationship, like the one between Anastasius and Nepos, the two men still showed mutual respect and the will to cooperate with their counterpart. This immediately came in the form of religious reconciliation between Rome and Constantinople, with the official rejection of the Henotikom and the Monophysite policy of the previous emperor. The new eastern emperor enjoyed a brief but peaceful reign as the Persian remained quiet during his reign, while the imperial coffers were filled with the riches the previous emperor had accumulated thanks to almost 30 years of wise financial policies. The only initial threat to his reign was represented by Flavius Vitalianus, Magister Militum Praesentalis, who had previously rebelled against the Monophysite faith of the previous emperor. Despite having favoured the religious reconciliation between Rome and Constantinople, this general was too powerful and autonomous, but more importantly he had once defied an emperor, a crime in the eyes of Iustinus. Thus he was appointed Consul in 520 AC and invited to the Great Palace in Constantinople where he would be treacherously stabbed by an officer loyal to Iustinus. With the elimination of this threat the new dynasty now safely sat on the throne of Constantinus.
 
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Interesting Suebic resurgence, too bad we have few much of them during their Arian phase. If the Kingdom would thrive it would be interesting to see if (probably because a defeat didn't bring down the Visigothic power and the Western realms were now settled) and how would seek contact and relation with Rome, considering of all the barbarians settled in the West they would be the only ones (excluded Britannia) which never had a foedus of sort with the Empire - hence de jure they "illegally" occupy Galicia in the eyes of Rome. On the other side the Visigoths which had plenty of foedus with the WRE could try to normalize relations with Rome to lick their wounds and receive support to regain Galicia (maybe Toletum will close an eye over African appetites for Rome in exchange of help for unifying Iberia - and an alliance in anti-Frank function could still work. In the end the Goths were the people who worked most with both the Empires and the more Romanized so who knows).

And finally I can't wait to see what do you have in mind with Justinian!
 
Definitely the lack of any events resembling the OTL gothic war represent (IMO) the best thing that could ever happen to Italy and its inhabitants. Maybe I could exaggerate but it seems to me that the gothic war literally crippled the Italo-Romans to the point that its negative effects lasted for centuries ( just think how different would have been european history with a completely unified medieval Italy). That’s one of the reasons I don’t like Iustinianus.

Since the beginning of this timeline I tried to describe the imperial need to supply the army and the city of Rome. In the future I would return to the question ( as I would like to avoid consecutive updates centered around one single topic) but as RyuDrago already explained, you shouldn’t underestimate Italic agriculture. It’s more a question of “prestige”, where the inhabitants of the capital receive foods, thus elevating the city to a superior status ( ideologically and demographically).

About the introduction of rice in Italy I have to be honest I didn’t have considered so far, the possibility of an alternate ( and accelerated) agricultural and technological development. This because I don’t want to favour the Romans too much before starting a new age of Crisis ( which would probably coincide with the final part of this timeline). However as long as I don’t write anything about the topic everything is possible in the future.
Thanks for the feedback. And as, always, great update!
 
Can we see the Suebic Kingdom as the ATL Portugal to Visigothic Spain?

Is a possibility. Albeit it would be more a Kingdom of Gallaecia rather than Lusitania, with Lucus Augusta as current capital - albeit the original seat, Bracara, could be restored with the Northeastern border more safer. (by the way Osilipus should be still the southernmost city in their hand). But it could be possible as OTL Gallaecia and Lusitania may split due to internal splits and succession crisis or more simply being conquered by the Visigoths.
 
If I recall correctly the suebi are eventually what become the Portuguese like how the Visigoths eventually become the Spanish and Franks French etc. So aren't they already the Portugal to visigothic Spain ittl?
 
Interesting Suebic resurgence, too bad we have few much of them during their Arian phase. If the Kingdom would thrive it would be interesting to see if (probably because a defeat didn't bring down the Visigothic power and the Western realms were now settled) and how would seek contact and relation with Rome, considering of all the barbarians settled in the West they would be the only ones (excluded Britannia) which never had a foedus of sort with the Empire - hence de jure they "illegally" occupy Galicia in the eyes of Rome. On the other side the Visigoths which had plenty of foedus with the WRE could try to normalize relations with Rome to lick their wounds and receive support to regain Galicia (maybe Toletum will close an eye over African appetites for Rome in exchange of help for unifying Iberia - and an alliance in anti-Frank function could still work. In the end the Goths were the people who worked most with both the Empires and the more Romanized so who knows).

And finally I can't wait to see what do you have in mind with Justinian!
We will see Roman meddling in Spain, considering that both the Goths and the Suebi are eager to outlast the other. The Romans and the Franks are the only possible external powers that can influence the events, but at the moment the Franks are not really able to act here, while the Romans will have other things to worry about soon.
About Justinian I can say that the events will take an interesting path during his reign and the eastern empire is finally going to be affected by the butterflies.
Thanks for the feedback. And as, always, great update!
You’re welcome
Can we see the Suebic Kingdom as the ATL Portugal to Visigothic Spain?
Only geographically and only for the time being. I think that this alternate kingdom of the Suebi is going to mirror the events of another OTL post Roman kingdom. I won’t add anything else, otherwise I would reveal too much about future updates.
If I recall correctly the suebi are eventually what become the Portuguese like how the Visigoths eventually become the Spanish and Franks French etc. So aren't they already the Portugal to visigothic Spain ittl?
Obviously in this timeline all this ethnicities will be butterflied but you shouldn’t forget that OTL the Germanic populations composed only a tiny fraction of what later would become the Portuguese, French, Spanish ecc.
 
Given OTL the Eastern empire exhausted itself with the reconquests of Justinian. With there no reason to expand out west is it possible they could solidify the Danube front or even retake Dacia? I'm skeptical if they could hold out against the Arabs, maybe a Hadrian style wall across the Suez isthmus to protect Egypt and North Africa but that would only seem necessary in hindsight.
 
Given OTL the Eastern empire exhausted itself with the reconquests of Justinian. With there no reason to expand out west is it possible they could solidify the Danube front or even retake Dacia? I'm skeptical if they could hold out against the Arabs, maybe a Hadrian style wall across the Suez isthmus to protect Egypt and North Africa but that would only seem necessary in hindsight.

Maybe not a wall across the Sinai Peninsula, but rather a string of fortified cities like Dara along the entire frontier with the Persians (I believe Dara was built in OTL was built to counter the major Persian frontier city of Nisibis, to function as a sort of frontier base), i.e. in the Levant as well, with the resources that wouldn't be expended in OTL's Reconquests of Justinian.

This could prove beneficial in countering the Arabs if and when they come knocking.
 
Given OTL the Eastern empire exhausted itself with the reconquests of Justinian. With there no reason to expand out west is it possible they could solidify the Danube front or even retake Dacia? I'm skeptical if they could hold out against the Arabs, maybe a Hadrian style wall across the Suez isthmus to protect Egypt and North Africa but that would only seem necessary in hindsight.
The Arab conquests were only possible to the sheer extent that they occured due to both the Sassanian and Roman empires being completely exhausted of men an manpower to the point that one major defeat was enough to sieze truly tremendous amounts of territory from the Romans and the Sassanians were so desperate that they resorted to chaining soldiers together after having lost their primary armies. With a Roman empire that has not only avoided having to reconquer the West but has also been able to continue detering the Sassanians thanks to not having to deploy nearly so many troops to the West, I am not convinced that there is anything even remotely inevitable about the Arab conquests.

That is not to say that the Arabs would not be a threat. They were an extremely dynamic force at their time and with the Arabian Peninsula being an extremely difficult place to invade for an Army like Rome's they could be a thorn in the Empire's side, or maybe even a rival for a very long time. I just don't see the set up for the meteoric rise to power that they achieved OTL.
 
Depends entirely on how Justinian deals with the Barbarians, Sassanians and Western Romans. If he commits too much to Africa or Iberia in the hopes of returning them to the empire, or if he conflicts too much with the Western Romans in a bid to assert seniority, or if he tries to extend too deep into Persia...

Justinian was a man who grasped for more than the empire could handle, more than his advisors could prevent. He wanted to be the man who made the Empire great again, and he wouldn't be different here in that regard. I could very well see him trying to "end the Persian threat" and bog down the Empire in Persia with a financially ruinous war just in time for the Plague. And that Plague is gonna wreck a Western Roman Empire that is largely connected to Eastern trade and borders.
 
Well, about the plague, considering would arrive till to Britannia, would affect most of Europe likely so the Empires would cry the Roman Barbarian realms won't smile. Italy won't risk threats considering also the Lombards were beaten time ago and the Ostrogoths of Pannonia would likely resist even from a Gepid invasion. Granted, the effects may be reduced if the Empires would have sufficient money to deal with this crisis...
 
Maybe because Justinian won't be using belisarius in the west he actually won't get bogged down in a war with the Persians because belisarius will be belisarius and wipe the floor with them. This is my own hopeful conjecture though born out of wanting to see both Roman empires survive and see the Muslims get thrown back into Arabia by both the sassanids and Romans. Honestly if the Muslim conquests didn't happen they'd probably be considered asb or pretty close to it
 
Well, no. The conquests came at exactly the right time and still took a lot of work by Muslim commanders against superior numbers. Its like calling Napoleonic France ASB because the conditions existed for a period of time until they didn't.

The Arabs had the better generals and greater mobility and even then it was a critical affair to win every battle on the basis that losses could not be afforded. There's a timeline on hiatus on the forum that examines the early conquests, written by Goulash Comrade that might interest you.

If the eastern Romans did focus on Persia, then a lot of the conditions preceding the conquests don't happen. Maybe the Arabs affiliate with Rome and are used to settle Iraq more strongly. Maybe Islam spreads into Byzantium more peacefully, or doesn't exist or has it's expansionist spirit sniffed ahead of time during the Ridda Wars.
 
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Given OTL the Eastern empire exhausted itself with the reconquests of Justinian. With there no reason to expand out west is it possible they could solidify the Danube front or even retake Dacia? I'm skeptical if they could hold out against the Arabs, maybe a Hadrian style wall across the Suez isthmus to protect Egypt and North Africa but that would only seem necessary in hindsight.
Consolidation of the Danubian Limes is totally possible but I would exclude any campaign in Dacia. About the wall, even the narrowest point is over 100 km thus making any wall impossible to effectively man.
Maybe not a wall across the Sinai Peninsula, but rather a string of fortified cities like Dara along the entire frontier with the Persians (I believe Dara was built in OTL was built to counter the major Persian frontier city of Nisibis, to function as a sort of frontier base), i.e. in the Levant as well, with the resources that wouldn't be expended in OTL's Reconquests of Justinian.

This could prove beneficial in countering the Arabs if and when they come knocking.
The problem is that the Romans don’t expect any problem coming from Arabia. When (and if) the Arabs will come it could be to late to start building fortification along the new border ( or maybe other factors that I won’t mention now, could make this decision impossible to take).
The Arab conquests were only possible to the sheer extent that they occured due to both the Sassanian and Roman empires being completely exhausted of men an manpower to the point that one major defeat was enough to sieze truly tremendous amounts of territory from the Romans and the Sassanians were so desperate that they resorted to chaining soldiers together after having lost their primary armies. With a Roman empire that has not only avoided having to reconquer the West but has also been able to continue detering the Sassanians thanks to not having to deploy nearly so many troops to the West, I am not convinced that there is anything even remotely inevitable about the Arab conquests.

That is not to say that the Arabs would not be a threat. They were an extremely dynamic force at their time and with the Arabian Peninsula being an extremely difficult place to invade for an Army like Rome's they could be a thorn in the Empire's side, or maybe even a rival for a very long time. I just don't see the set up for the meteoric rise to power that they achieved OTL.
We probably just avoided long and costly wars in the west but the Persians are not going to be so easily defeated. Certain circumstances could make them an even worse enemy.
Depends entirely on how Justinian deals with the Barbarians, Sassanians and Western Romans. If he commits too much to Africa or Iberia in the hopes of returning them to the empire, or if he conflicts too much with the Western Romans in a bid to assert seniority, or if he tries to extend too deep into Persia...

Justinian was a man who grasped for more than the empire could handle, more than his advisors could prevent. He wanted to be the man who made the Empire great again, and he wouldn't be different here in that regard. I could very well see him trying to "end the Persian threat" and bog down the Empire in Persia with a financially ruinous war just in time for the Plague. And that Plague is gonna wreck a Western Roman Empire that is largely connected to Eastern trade and borders.
The last emperor who attempted to definitely end the Persian threat was Julian and it didn’t end well. Two centuries have passed and none of his successors have attempted this, so any eastern Roman emperor would think twice before even starting a new military campaign ( barring the occasional raid/attacks against border cities/ siege and ransom), regardless of the western situation. But they could still be forced to war...
Well, about the plague, considering would arrive till to Britannia, would affect most of Europe likely so the Empires would cry the Roman Barbarian realms won't smile. Italy won't risk threats considering also the Lombards were beaten time ago and the Ostrogoths of Pannonia would likely resist even from a Gepid invasion. Granted, the effects may be reduced if the Empires would have sufficient money to deal with this crisis...
Currently I was thinking about possible ways that could reduce the impact of the plague over the western empire, but probably I should just depict it as deadly as OTL. Fortunately the lack of any war resembling the gothic one will certainly help the empire and the italic population.
Maybe because Justinian won't be using belisarius in the west he actually won't get bogged down in a war with the Persians because belisarius will be belisarius and wipe the floor with them. This is my own hopeful conjecture though born out of wanting to see both Roman empires survive and see the Muslims get thrown back into Arabia by both the sassanids and Romans. Honestly if the Muslim conquests didn't happen they'd probably be considered asb or pretty close to it
What about a different number of Roman empires? And while we are here we could also change something about Persian history before the Arab invasion. Not much, just a couple of names.
Well, no. The conquests came at exactly the right time and still took a lot of work by Muslim commanders against superior numbers. Its like calling Napoleonic France ASB because the conditions existed for a period of time until they didn't.

The Arabs had the better generals and greater mobility and even then it was a critical affair to win every battle on the basis that losses could not be afforded. There's a timeline on hiatus on the forum that examines the early conquests, written by Goulash Comrade that might interest you.

If the eastern Romans did focus on Persia, then a lot of the conditions preceding the conquests don't happen. Maybe the Arabs affiliate with Rome and are used to settle Iraq more strongly. Maybe Islam spreads into Byzantium more peacefully, or doesn't exist or has it's expansionist spirit sniffed ahead of time during the Ridda Wars.
I just want to remind everyone that you can still choose the fate of the Arabs.
Just vote here:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/first-poll.449625/
 
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