Frogs in milk

If you're wandering what the heck is that supposed to mean, it's a name of an alt-history book by a Czech author named Jan Drnek, which deals with the Czechoslovak defensive war in September-October 1938. The name is a reference to an old Russian fable about two frogs who fall into a bucket of milk. One gives up and drowns, the second one treads milk in a desperate bid to survive. In the end, it inadvertently manages to churn the milk into butter which allows it to spring out of the bucket. It's supposed to convey the message that you should never give up, even when the odds against you seem overwhelming, because you never know what will happen.


Now, I didn't read the book. I read a few synopses so I know the basic outline of the story, which is as follows:

A group of generals stage a silent 'coup' when they prevent Eduard Beneš, the President of Czechoslovakia, from accepting the terms of the Munich Agreement. (This is what he did in OTL, in a direct violation of the constitution. Also in OTL, there was a huge opposition in the military and among most politicians against his decision, so the PoD is pretty solid, IMO.) Instead a new government is formed of conservative politicians and military leaders. This government refuses the terms of the Munich Treaty on September 30th, and the German attack comes during the night the day later. As expected, France and Britain disavow Czechoslovakia and provide no help to it whatsoever.

However, the German plan for a swift victory doesn't survive the first contact with the enemy. German infantry gets bogged down in the frontier hills and their formidable fortifications and the progress is slow and costly. The Czechoslovak army fights differently that the Germans had expected - it mounts an effective flexible defence instead of stubbornly clinging to its fortifications. Also, the fortifications were built with this in mind, very much unlike the Maginot Line in France. The Czechoslovak air forces disperse over dozens of field airstrips and give the Luftwaffe's bombers a bloody nose, while the Czechoslovak bombers perform nearly suicidal strikes against German airbases which further disorganize the German air force. Czechoslovaks also resort to quite controversial tactic when they sometimes use the Sudeten Germans as human shields, driving them towards the advancing Wehrmacht and thus slowing it down even more.

On the 6th of October, Poland invades the disputed Zaolzie region in northern Moravia/Silesia. The attack doesn't make much headway (and ironically the local Germans side with the Czechs against the Poles) and it proves disastrous for the Poles when the Soviet Union uses it as pretext for an invasion of Poland. The Soviets also begin supplying aircraft (and "volunteer" pilots) to Czechoslovakia.

The Soviet invasion of Poland causes panic in Germany as it suddenly faces the prospect of bordering on the USSR. Hitler orders a rushed attack in southern Moravia, where the fortifications are deemed to be the weakest and the terrain is supposed to be most favourable for armoured manoeuvres, hoping to quickly end the war against Czechoslovakia so that Germany can deal with the Soviet threat.

Unfortunately for the Germans, this is exactly what the Czechoslovak generals expect, which is why they focus their remaining reserves and armoured units in this region. Also the forts prove to be much more advanced than the Germans expected and the terrain stops being so favourable when the Czechs flood the lowlands and blow up key bridges/elevated roads. The Soviet fighters and bombers now operate from Czechoslovak airfields and aid the ground forces, which mount an effective counter-attack against the armoured spearheads in southern Moravia. Germans are unpleasantly surprised to learn that their Panzers I and II are next to useless against the Czech light tanks, while the Czechs learn to use their anti-aircraft guns against the heavier IIIs and IVs (the story is sometimes pretty ironic). As a result, by the 16th of October the whole incursion in the south turns up to be a huge blunder for the Wehrmacht, which loses a lot of men, tanks and equipment in the fiasco.

But it doesn't end there: the Czechoslovaks subsequently throw everything they have against the disorganized and bled out Germans and advance into Austria, threatening Vienna (where an anti-Nazi uprising now begins), while at the same time the Red Army advances deep into Poland. This proves to be the last straw for the German generals, who stage a coup against the Nazis, arrest (or shoot?) Hitler and other key Nazi leaders, disarm the SS and subsequently decide to end the war in order to save Germany from a looming disaster that would ensue if Poland collapsed and the Soviets openly joined Czechoslovakia.

An armistice is signed and Germany withdraws its forces from Czechoslovakia (and Austria probably regains independence, I am not exactly sure). The Soviets stop their advance in Poland on the Curzon line in order to prevent open conflict with Germany and the Western Allies. The war ends on the 20th of October, 1938.

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Now, from what I've read, the depiction of the events is... how to say it, well, very optimistic from the Czechoslovak point of view, and the author admits the odds of things happening as he described them are low. Again, I didn't read the book, but from what I've seen in the synopses, it doesn't seem to be stretched into the ASB territory.

What do you think?

(Also, the author is reputedly preparing a follow-up, which will deal with the Soviet invasion of Central Europe and the subsequent war against a coalition of European countries in 1942. Might be interesting.)
 
The problem is: The Czech fortifications were indeed strong, and their army wasn't the worst either, but said fortifications were only along the pre-Anschluss German border. After all, Versailles forbad a German-Austrian unification, and Austria alone wouldn't be dangerous?

Hitler would simply attack from the south, and the Czechs would be screwed. And Göring may decide to bomb Prague. :(
 
This thread could have legs.

Meaning...?

The problem is: The Czech fortifications were indeed strong, and their army wasn't the worst either, but said fortifications were only along the pre-Anschluss German border.

That's a myth.

mapa.jpg


Not only were the fortifications present, but there were special plans for defence of this region.

Hitler would simply attack from the south, and the Czechs would be screwed.

Well, he would try. Whether he'd succeed against fortifications, a determined defence and all kinds of other obstacles, that's an open question.

And Göring may decide to bomb Prague. :(

Of course. The point is - terror bombing would be of little use for Germany. Plus, the Germans wanted Czechoslovakia intact. Whether they'd resort to terror bombing of Czech towns (almost all of which had significant German minorities living in them, BTW), that's again unclear.

Look here for a very well done timeline on a similar premise.

http://althistory.wikia.com/wiki/Invasion_of_Czechoslovakia_(Fall_Grün)

I've seen it. Of course the outcome there is significantly different.

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Bear in mind, I am not defending the book, I haven't even read it and I take it it's one of those "what-ifs" with a clear agenda. On the other hand, the general outline doesn't seem outright crazy, so I am interested in other opinions.
 
Am I correct in recalling that the Czech arms industry was among the best in the world and that its tanks were at least on a par with those used by the German Army at the time?
 
LT vz.35*-the main type of light tank used by 1938 Czechoslovak army-was, as far as I know, far superior to PzKpfw I and II which at the time made up most of Germany's tanks, as the PzKpfw IIIs and IVs were just entering service. LT vz.38 had not yet entered service in Sept. 1938, but after the annexation of Czechia the Germans kept it in production as PzKpfw 38(t) and used it throughout the war.

(*this stands for Light Tank mk. 35)

Czechoslovak military was well-equipped with artillery, machine guns and other stuff the Germans then put to a good use in Poland and France :rolleyes:

The problem was that the main arms factories were pretty close to the German border. If that would have mattered, I don't know. In a long dragged-out war, probably yes. In a short face-off, no.
 
It seems pretty optimistic for the Czechs although I can see them holding back the Nazis. If Goering bombs Prague it's going to be very hard to keep the British and French out of the fight.
 
Ah, I don't think the French (and thus, the British) would move a finger to help. They washed their hands over Czechoslovakia when they signed the Agreement.

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I am more interested about the opinions on the role the Soviets play in this scenario - their (limited) invasion of Poland, that in the end proves crucial and helps Czechoslovakia to survive (since the prospect of the Red Army marching to Germany's borders scare the Nazis to no end).
 
I am more interested about the opinions on the role the Soviets play in this scenario - their (limited) invasion of Poland, that in the end proves crucial and helps Czechoslovakia to survive (since the prospect of the Red Army marching to Germany's borders scare the Nazis to no end).

It depends on a lot of uncharacteristic altruism of Stalin - obviously he had done his best to warn off Poland and construct a united front against Germany's demands, but he'd never made a secret to the Czechs that he didn't intend to commit the Red Army without French involvement. To his paranoid mind, it smacked of a trap.

As for the military side of it: the Red Army was not brilliant (it lacked experience and was pretty thoroughly Purged), but it wouldn't have had its pants round its ankles like in 1941, and it only has to take on Poland, which is neither Finland nor Germany. I can imagine some embarrasing failures - perhaps giving Hitler false confidence - but ultimately in the relatively open country of Volhynia and Galicia, Russia has more men, guns, and tanks than Poland ever will and it will eventually tell.

I wonder what France and especially Britain think of the Godless Communist Aggression Oh Noez. Guarantees in the strongest terms to Finland, Romania, and Turkey are forthcoming, of course (Estonia and Latvia depend on whether the Soviets have the cajones to push 1939-style treaties on them; Lithuania, meanwhile, is going to be making eyes at Vilnius); and I think the Entente would be keen to end the war before large Soviet gains.

On a side note, I think the book is accurate in having Horthy be too sensible to try anything.
 
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