Friedrich Christian of Saxony Lives Longer

According to what I've read on Friedrich Christian of Saxony, it seems a crying shame that he only served as ruler for less than three months. I'm not saying his wife/brother didn't do as well as regent for his son, but his death led to the installation of a Russian "puppet" on the throne of Poland, and eventually the partitions of that country. I've been wondering about the repercussions in both Saxony and Poland if he had lived. All his brothers (with the exception of the duke of Courland) lived until the 19th century, but Friedrich DID have health problems, so maybe he only lives around 10-15years longer. How might this shake things up?
 
It likely keep Poland from being partitioned, but at the same time Poland will likely not reform, so we simply see Poland continued survival as a massive buffer state. The problem is whether his son is able to be elected, if not I expect a partition soon afterwards. But let's say his son is also elected in that case Poland may survive until the Napoleonic Wars, and here the Wettins and Poles may have a short window to reform Poland. If Frederick Augustus also play his cards right in alliance, he may come out of the Napoleonic Wars with Poland intact, maybe if he plays his cards right he trades Saxony for ducal Prussia at the alternative version of Vienna Congress. While it's the best trade, it would be worth it, because it would remove the Kingdom of Prussia incitement to focus on expansion in Poland and more their focus to north Germany.
 
Buffer states only live if the neighbors don't agree on what to do with it

...and Austria wanted to keep Poland alive. So if Prussia and Russia want to partition Poland, they have to go against Saxony (which while inferior to Prussia was a relative strong state in it own right) and Austria, in a point of time where Austria was allied with France and UK was unlikely to take part in the conflict. So Poland get to survive as long as it doesn't reform, but under the Napoleonic Wars there're a small moment in time where Poland can reform. If it doesn't reform there, I think a partition will become unavoidable.
 
It likely keep Poland from being partitioned, but at the same time Poland will likely not reform, so we simply see Poland continued survival as a massive buffer state. The problem is whether his son is able to be elected, if not I expect a partition soon afterwards. But let's say his son is also elected in that case Poland may survive until the Napoleonic Wars, and here the Wettins and Poles may have a short window to reform Poland. If Frederick Augustus also play his cards right in alliance, he may come out of the Napoleonic Wars with Poland intact, maybe if he plays his cards right he trades Saxony for ducal Prussia at the alternative version of Vienna Congress. While it's the best trade, it would be worth it, because it would remove the Kingdom of Prussia incitement to focus on expansion in Poland and more their focus to north Germany.

Would the Wettins really trade away Saxony though? It seems a bit like asking turkeys to vote for Christmas to come early, as someone once said about the Wittelsbachs trading away Bavaria in the WotSS
 
...and Austria wanted to keep Poland alive. So if Prussia and Russia want to partition Poland, they have to go against Saxony (which while inferior to Prussia was a relative strong state in it own right) and Austria, in a point of time where Austria was allied with France and UK was unlikely to take part in the conflict. So Poland get to survive as long as it doesn't reform, but under the Napoleonic Wars there're a small moment in time where Poland can reform. If it doesn't reform there, I think a partition will become unavoidable.

Well, given FC's OTL "Enlightened" tendencies, don't you think he will attempt reforms there? Esp since unlike Stanislaw, he's not on a leash to St. Petersburg.
 
On another, slightly different note, I always wondered about the possibility of Prince Xavier being elected as King of Poland in lieu of his brother (if FC were to still die on schedule), establishing a cadet line of the house of Wettin in PLC, that isn't answerable to Dresden (I mean FC had five sons ahead of Xavier (and no one could know in '63 that all except Friedrich August and Maximilian would die without surviving children)).
 
So what reforms would FC/Xavier need to bring about in PLC? Abolition of the liberum veto, obviously (maybe the Golden Privileges of the Sejm have to be chipped away)?
 
It likely keep Poland from being partitioned, but at the same time Poland will likely not reform, so we simply see Poland continued survival as a massive buffer state. The problem is whether his son is able to be elected, if not I expect a partition soon afterwards. But let's say his son is also elected in that case Poland may survive until the Napoleonic Wars, and here the Wettins and Poles may have a short window to reform Poland. If Frederick Augustus also play his cards right in alliance, he may come out of the Napoleonic Wars with Poland intact, maybe if he plays his cards right he trades Saxony for ducal Prussia at the alternative version of Vienna Congress. While it's the best trade, it would be worth it, because it would remove the Kingdom of Prussia incitement to focus on expansion in Poland and more their focus to north Germany.
Trading Saxony for ducal Prusia seems like a very very bad idea. Saxony was very rich in the 18th century. I think it would be smarter to try to link Poland and Saxony. Maybe acquire lower Silesia?
 
Would the Wettins really trade away Saxony though? It seems a bit like asking turkeys to vote for Christmas to come early, as someone once said about the Wittelsbachs trading away Bavaria in the WotSS

It's a risky deal, but if it's a success the Wettins can trade a minor kingdom for stable western border and a potential to make Poland into a great power.

Trading Saxony for ducal Prusia seems like a very very bad idea. Saxony was very rich in the 18th century. I think it would be smarter to try to link Poland and Saxony. Maybe acquire lower Silesia?

No it would not be smarter, it would simply make their western border unstable, while they also had to deal with a hostile Russia and at the same time it would also make their southern border unbstable by giving the Austrians interest in partition Poland. Of course it's not impossible it would happen, but the result would likely be that Poland would end up in war with a alliance of its neighbours.
 
Okay. Territory swaps aside, what changes might be instituted in the government (either of PLC or Saxony) and how might FC surviving affect the German political scene? Would he back his sister in Bavaria up? Or side with Prussia in the hopes of securing parts of Bavaria for his kids?
 
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