French without Napoleon

What will happen to France if their never have Napoleon.
Did the First French Republic going to survive to today or not.
Did the First French Republic going to gain victory in French Revolutionary Wars.
 
What will happen to France if their never have Napoleon.
Did the First French Republic going to survive to today or not.
Did the First French Republic going to gain victory in French Revolutionary Wars.

1) another general will give a whiff of grapeshot, so Directoire will still be established. Likely no expedition to egypt, so no Aboukir and french navy stays stronger, no british Malta either. Another general will be used in the coup to establish consulat ( Moreau or Massena, most likely ). definitely no Empire. From there two possibilities, either restoration as a constitutionnal monarchy ( ala Monck ) or Consulat stays on. The former is extremely unlikely if military consul is Moreau or Hoche ( butterflies may ensure he lives ), nore possible if Massena ( but the bribe will have to be HUGE ).

2) No. Directoire is unavoidable and Consulat almost certain. From there, two possibilities, as above.

3) Definitely. It did OTL and Napoleon role in it was minor ( Italy ).
 
3) Definitely. It did OTL and Napoleon role in it was minor ( Italy ).

I'd certainly agree that France will still win, but I'd thought the Italian campaign was major business in both the Revolutionary Wars. Isn't that why the Austrians overstrengthened their Italian wing in round three?
 
I'd certainly agree that France will still win, but I'd thought the Italian campaign was major business in both the Revolutionary Wars. Isn't that why the Austrians overstrengthened their Italian wing in round three?

Italian campaign was to be a secondary theater, in the directoire original plan, to make a diversion and gets austria to divide its forces while the main thrust was coming in the germanies.

The quality of the troops and generals affected to it reflected this, as well as the numbers of troops available for operations ( when Bonapartes got commands, he could attack with 28000 men out of a theoretical effectif of 115000+ , IIRC, and the judgements he wrote about his immediate subordianates was .... less than enthousiatic).

Bonapartes intrigued to get the command and changed the plan without refering to Paris. He then endlessly clamored for reinforcement. To get these, he exagerated the importance of the theater.

Notheless, this was a secondary theater ( like Switzerland ) and the life of the republic was saved by the clash of armies in the low countries and germanies. Basically, while Austria lost some important territories here, a defeat wouldn't threaten Vienna, while a french defeat wouldn't spell the doom of the republic, as a defeat at say Fleurus may have.
 
Italian campaign was to be a secondary theater, in the directoire original plan, to make a diversion and gets austria to divide its forces while the main thrust was coming in the germanies.

The quality of the troops and generals affected to it reflected this, as well as the numbers of troops available for operations ( when Bonapartes got commands, he could attack with 28000 men out of a theoretical effectif of 115000+ , IIRC, and the judgements he wrote about his immediate subordianates was .... less than enthousiatic).

Bonapartes intrigued to get the command and changed the plan without refering to Paris. He then endlessly clamored for reinforcement. To get these, he exagerated the importance of the theater.

Notheless, this was a secondary theater ( like Switzerland ) and the life of the republic was saved by the clash of armies in the low countries and germanies. Basically, while Austria lost some important territories here, a defeat wouldn't threaten Vienna, while a french defeat wouldn't spell the doom of the republic, as a defeat at say Fleurus may have.

You're ignoring of course the fact that in 1797 Napoleon was in striking distance from Vienna. Not to mention that in 1798-1800 it was the main battleground of the war, until Hohenlinden.

The importance of Napoleon's campaign can also be resumed in one word: money. After he gained Milano, he was able to finance his expedition but also to send funds to the Directorate, which put them into use on the other fronts.

I would mention here the humiliation of the Pope which certainly was to provide a cathalyst to the future republican/nationalist movements all around Europe.
 
From there two possibilities, either restoration as a constitutionnal monarchy ( ala Monck ) or Consulat stays on. The former is extremely unlikely if military consul is Moreau or Hoche ( butterflies may ensure he lives ), nore possible if Massena ( but the bribe will have to be HUGE ).
I think it would be fairly likely that Sieyès would dominate the new Consulate, as he originally intended. But he would probably not go to the extent Napoleon did and crown himself emperor, but perhaps some sort of First Consul-esque title with power centered on him is in the works?
 
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