French victory in the Italian War of 1499-1504

In this world, after France takes over Milan in 1499 (OTL). After that France decides to send a large army to aid the Pope in centralizing its control over the Papal States. In the early 1500, France also takes over Modena, Ferrara, Mantua, Lucca, Monteferrat and also gives the Papal States control over Tuscany. Now, a road to Naples has been created. In the last war, France was defeated because the states of Northern Italy had struck in the French rear. Now, Northern Italy is controlled by France. France does not sign a treaty with Spain to partition Naples. They go ahead and defeat weak Naples. Now, the control of France on mainland France is absolute and the Papal States, for its survival becomes a French satellite. Following that French, Roman and mercenaries conquer Sicily. A Spanish invasion of Sicily is thwarted. Now only Sardinia is under Aragon, rest of Italy is under France.
 
There are three good reasons it didn't happen in OTL: they are named Alexander VI, Ferdinand II, and Tercio Espanol. Machiavelli had a fair amount to say on the matter too.

A strong French showing is certainly possible. They may gain, in decreasing likelihood, Savoy, Milan, Genoa, Naples, Sardinia and Corsica, or Sicily proper. But at that point, with Spain and/or Austria and/or the Habsburgs on their knees, I believe that they would prefer Brabant, Flanders, Burgundy, Lorraine, perhaps Catalonia or Navarre...
 
There are three good reasons it didn't happen in OTL: they are named Alexander VI, Ferdinand II, and Tercio Espanol. Machiavelli had a fair amount to say on the matter too.

A strong French showing is certainly possible. They may gain, in decreasing likelihood, Savoy, Milan, Genoa, Naples, Sardinia and Corsica, or Sicily proper. But at that point, with Spain and/or Austria and/or the Habsburgs on their knees, I believe that they would prefer Brabant, Flanders, Burgundy, Lorraine, perhaps Catalonia or Navarre...
Yes, but Savoy and Genoa were French allies.Corsica was under Genoa. I agree that that they would prefer Brabant, Flanders, Burgundy, Lorraine, perhaps Catalonia or Navarre but Italy was a major point of contention between them. France had claimed Milan and Naples.
 
Won't the papacy just flip after they've gotten what they wanted? Seriously they're surrounded by the French if France takes Naples & Milan. When the papacy invited the French to take Naples I don't think they envisioned France holding Milan as well. I think we'd see a big counter league focused on France and the papacy (if they don't flip) as opposed to Venice based on the gains proposed.
 
Won't the papacy just flip after they've gotten what they wanted? Seriously they're surrounded by the French if France takes Naples & Milan. When the papacy invited the French to take Naples I don't think they envisioned France holding Milan as well. I think we'd see a big counter league focused on France and the papacy (if they don't flip) as opposed to Venice based on the gains proposed.
No. In 1499, France conquered Milan and then in 1500 Naples.
 
Their capture of Naples was distinctly shaky and collapsed very quickly, a neat reminder that early Renaissance operational ranges were short and the French were out of their depth. There is no way they are conquering and holding all of Italy.
 
No. In 1499, France conquered Milan and then in 1500 Naples.

The order doesn't matter, I would imagine that as the Pope would deny the French passage through the Papal states once they hold Milan if their intent is to annex it.

Should the French then attack him, he'll call for a coalition against France. Now it depends on whether or not others are strong enough to actually join in, but France in Milan and Naples is simply not good, also how will the papacy maintain its independence, all their territories are surrounded by the French (Avignon, and now in this scenario Rome & her environs).

That's the reason we had the league of cognac against the Imperial Habsburgs and at that time Milan was still independent.
 
The order doesn't matter, I would imagine that as the Pope would deny the French passage through the Papal states once they hold Milan if their intent is to annex it.

Should the French then attack him, he'll call for a coalition against France. Now it depends on whether or not others are strong enough to actually join in, but France in Milan and Naples is simply not good, also how will the papacy maintain its independence, all their territories are surrounded by the French (Avignon, and now in this scenario Rome & her environs).

That's the reason we had the league of cognac against the Imperial Habsburgs and at that time Milan was still independent.
The Papal States was too weak to fight against France, alone.
 
The Papal States was too weak to fight against France, alone.

Which is why I mentioned coalitions and leagues implying/stating that the Pope will either join one against France or call for one as he did OTL against Venice, France and Spain each time he (whichever pope he was) felt they were too strong in Italy until the Sack of Rome which reduced the Papacy to a secondary player that followed Spain.

Whether or not such a league will win against the French is a different matter. But almost certainly any players in Italian affairs will not be comfortable will long lived French presence in both Milan and Naples, unless other pressing matters distract them.
 
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