What if the French had won the Franco-Prussian War and Napoleon III gets to keep his empire? Also, what would happen to Prussia and the rest of Germany?
On the other hand, answering it is always interesting...
First, it really depends on HOW he wins - one can either assume that there's better preparation, he doesn't have an ulcer, his army is properly armed, mobilised and commanded etc, or one can assume that its the OTL mess it was but the Germans get seriously unlucky and the French manage to trounce them. We all know the unlikely, not to say the impossible, seems to happen sometimes in war !
The immediate effect would be felt in Germany - OTL the formation of the Empire was hardly something everybody wanted, and didn't seem particuarly likely even going into the conflict. It is only retrospective history obsessed with Bismarck having a coherent plan from start to finish of the decade that makes it seem somehow inevitable.
Defeated, the Iron Chancellor would be out, probably on the back of street demonstrations and new elections to the diet which bring a Liberal majority. The North German Confederation would be in danger, and Prussian control of Hannover and Hesse-Kassel might well end in revolt.
More thoughts later
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
On the other hand, answering it is always interesting...
First, it really depends on HOW he wins - one can either assume that there's better preparation, he doesn't have an ulcer, his army is properly armed, mobilised and commanded etc, or one can assume that its the OTL mess it was but the Germans get seriously unlucky and the French manage to trounce them. We all know the unlikely, not to say the impossible, seems to happen sometimes in war !
The immediate effect would be felt in Germany - OTL the formation of the Empire was hardly something everybody wanted, and didn't seem particuarly likely even going into the conflict. It is only retrospective history obsessed with Bismarck having a coherent plan from start to finish of the decade that makes it seem somehow inevitable.
Defeated, the Iron Chancellor would be out, probably on the back of street demonstrations and new elections to the diet which bring a Liberal majority. The North German Confederation would be in danger, and Prussian control of Hannover and Hesse-Kassel might well end in revolt.
I'm quite willing to accept the POD being "various Acts of God", since this is war between two pretty well matched (on paper) powers.
I think Bismarck had a kind of rough plan. There is no way that all the things that happened could have happened without there being some kind of blue print in Bismarck's head of how things would play out. He knew what the dice of history needed to land on, and tried to load the proverbial dice as much as possible.
Despite this massive setback, I don't know how much real political realignment there would be in Germany. The idea of German unification was very popular and supported by the great majority of people. If Bismarck is unable to do it with military means, then its possible that the liberal nationalists get into the driver seat of German unification, and forge a more democratic (and peaceful) German unification.
I don't, for instance, see the Austrians suddenly attacking Prussia, or one of the remaining independent German states turning on Prussia. If anything, the loss would probably serve to further unite the German people. After all, the French started this war, and now they have taken some bit of GERMAN territory.
Actually, the military unification of Germany is quite possible. German revaunchist sentiments are high, and support across Germany for "restoring the Fatherland" is at dizzying levels. The popular sentiments blame the lack of German unification for the losses, and there is popular pressure to create a single German Army. This is aided by popular uprisings in the remaining German states outside the North German Confederation, uprisings which aim to force their princes into the Confederation. The uprising are a general success, and more power is given to the main legislative body. This ends up resulting in the same kind of chest-pounding militarism that Germany OTL did, only it is being done by a legislative body that actually has a good deal of power. In 1884, following a clash between German Nationalists and French troops in the bit of Germany France took after '71, the Germans declare war. They send troops through Belgium, which allows the troops to pass through because of rude noises that Napoleon IV has been making about southern Belgium. The French are roundly defeated, and Germany is finally declared. The Prussian King is made "Emperor of the Germans" (Not OTL's title), and the victory seals the power of the (newly renamed) Reichstag.
As a side issue, if the victory / lack of crushing defeat is early enough, could we see Rome still being gaurded by the French - leading to the Italian capital staying in Florence, at least for a while longer?
What German territory do you envision a victorious France taking ? I could see them BUYING Luxembourg with German resistance now negated
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Originally posted by pompejus
Wasn't France interested in the Saarland? That could be the peace treaty: France gains the Saarland and the option to buy Luxembourg from the Netherlands.
I'd think that the Italians could only be held off for so long... Perhaps Nap III manages to broker some kind of deal between the Pope and the Italians?![]()
It seems plaussible this solution for a possible peace treaty
also as say by Grey Wolf:
"I personally don't see Bavarians suddenly voting for unity with Prussia on the back of a defeat for them all"
I think that apart of Bavaria and other german states (at least southern german states) not unifying with Prussia because the defeat against France, it is possible a return of these states to a politic of alliance with France, IIRC Napoleon III was rather surprised that Bavaria and other southern german states decided to align themself with Prussia and sending also troops to fight against the French Empire, but with a final defeat of Prussian alliance Bavaria could have a more favourable ears for a future new alignment with France (Napoleon III could play the card of making of Bavaria the hegemonic state in Southern Germany, some kind of southern Prussia allied with France).
The lead up to the Franco-Prussian war was not so much French ‘aggression’ but rather the rise of Prussia. Everybody knew about Prussia’s earlier attack on Denmark and Austria so trying to portray 'poor little Prussia' as the victim of French aggression isn’t going to convince anybody. It would rather be seen as a case of a bully picking on the wrong kid and getting the stuffing knocked out of him instead.
The border regions between ‘Germany’ and ‘France’ have a long history of being taken as spoils of war, so nobody is going to see them as ‘German regions filled with Germans’ occupied by the nasty French! Alsace and Lorraine have changed hands in 1870, 1918 and 1940 without much difficulty….
Lastly, Bavaria and France have had a long history of mutual alliances. While German nationalism certainly was on the rise, I am sure the Kings of Bavaria preferred ruling in a Bavarian Hell than serving in a Prussian Heaven. Only 4 years ago, they sided with Austria against Prussia in the Austro-Prussian war of 1966 which would have ensured their independence under Austrian leadership. Getting them to assert their independence again with French assistance isn’t a great stretch of the imagination.