French victory at the Franco-Prussian War

What if the French had won the Franco-Prussian War and Napoleon III gets to keep his empire? Also, what would happen to Prussia and the rest of Germany?
 
On the other hand, answering it is always interesting...

First, it really depends on HOW he wins - one can either assume that there's better preparation, he doesn't have an ulcer, his army is properly armed, mobilised and commanded etc, or one can assume that its the OTL mess it was but the Germans get seriously unlucky and the French manage to trounce them. We all know the unlikely, not to say the impossible, seems to happen sometimes in war !

The immediate effect would be felt in Germany - OTL the formation of the Empire was hardly something everybody wanted, and didn't seem particuarly likely even going into the conflict. It is only retrospective history obsessed with Bismarck having a coherent plan from start to finish of the decade that makes it seem somehow inevitable.

Defeated, the Iron Chancellor would be out, probably on the back of street demonstrations and new elections to the diet which bring a Liberal majority. The North German Confederation would be in danger, and Prussian control of Hannover and Hesse-Kassel might well end in revolt.

More thoughts later
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
On my front, French victory would make the 1877 Russo-Ottoman War very unlikely.

On the other hand, answering it is always interesting...

First, it really depends on HOW he wins - one can either assume that there's better preparation, he doesn't have an ulcer, his army is properly armed, mobilised and commanded etc, or one can assume that its the OTL mess it was but the Germans get seriously unlucky and the French manage to trounce them. We all know the unlikely, not to say the impossible, seems to happen sometimes in war !

The immediate effect would be felt in Germany - OTL the formation of the Empire was hardly something everybody wanted, and didn't seem particuarly likely even going into the conflict. It is only retrospective history obsessed with Bismarck having a coherent plan from start to finish of the decade that makes it seem somehow inevitable.

Defeated, the Iron Chancellor would be out, probably on the back of street demonstrations and new elections to the diet which bring a Liberal majority. The North German Confederation would be in danger, and Prussian control of Hannover and Hesse-Kassel might well end in revolt.

More thoughts later
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
On the other hand, answering it is always interesting...

First, it really depends on HOW he wins - one can either assume that there's better preparation, he doesn't have an ulcer, his army is properly armed, mobilised and commanded etc, or one can assume that its the OTL mess it was but the Germans get seriously unlucky and the French manage to trounce them. We all know the unlikely, not to say the impossible, seems to happen sometimes in war !

I'm quite willing to accept the POD being "various Acts of God", since this is war between two pretty well matched (on paper) powers.

The immediate effect would be felt in Germany - OTL the formation of the Empire was hardly something everybody wanted, and didn't seem particuarly likely even going into the conflict. It is only retrospective history obsessed with Bismarck having a coherent plan from start to finish of the decade that makes it seem somehow inevitable.

I think Bismarck had a kind of rough plan. There is no way that all the things that happened could have happened without there being some kind of blue print in Bismarck's head of how things would play out. He knew what the dice of history needed to land on, and tried to load the proverbial dice as much as possible.

Defeated, the Iron Chancellor would be out, probably on the back of street demonstrations and new elections to the diet which bring a Liberal majority. The North German Confederation would be in danger, and Prussian control of Hannover and Hesse-Kassel might well end in revolt.

Despite this massive setback, I don't know how much real political realignment there would be in Germany. The idea of German unification was very popular and supported by the great majority of people. If Bismarck is unable to do it with military means, then its possible that the liberal nationalists get into the driver seat of German unification, and forge a more democratic (and peaceful) German unification.

I don't, for instance, see the Austrians suddenly attacking Prussia, or one of the remaining independent German states turning on Prussia. If anything, the loss would probably serve to further unite the German people. After all, the French started this war, and now they have taken some bit of GERMAN territory.

Actually, the military unification of Germany is quite possible. German revaunchist sentiments are high, and support across Germany for "restoring the Fatherland" is at dizzying levels. The popular sentiments blame the lack of German unification for the losses, and there is popular pressure to create a single German Army. This is aided by popular uprisings in the remaining German states outside the North German Confederation, uprisings which aim to force their princes into the Confederation. The uprising are a general success, and more power is given to the main legislative body. This ends up resulting in the same kind of chest-pounding militarism that Germany OTL did, only it is being done by a legislative body that actually has a good deal of power. In 1884, following a clash between German Nationalists and French troops in the bit of Germany France took after '71, the Germans declare war. They send troops through Belgium, which allows the troops to pass through because of rude noises that Napoleon IV has been making about southern Belgium. The French are roundly defeated, and Germany is finally declared. The Prussian King is made "Emperor of the Germans" (Not OTL's title), and the victory seals the power of the (newly renamed) Reichstag.
 
What German territory do you envision a victorious France taking ? I could see them BUYING Luxembourg with German resistance now negated

I personally don't see Bavarians suddenly voting for unity with Prussia on the back of a defeat for them all, but its your timeline :)

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Well, at least the North German Confederation, plus the rest of Hesse-Darmstadt (sic) would probably form *Germany, though it would really only be a Prussia++ (and even more so than OTL...).
 
I don't think there's much likelihood of that degree of a crushing victory by France - and it's hard to imagine France annexing any German territory. More likely Prussia would lose some recently gained territory in Western Germany which would revert to independent status.

While I think you're right there was some impetus to German unity, the enthusiasm for German unity under Prussian domination was not so great.

With that many states, it's pretty easy to play off their differences to prevent unification, although it seems inevitable Prussia will have a go at it again at some point.

Maybe this would breathe new life into the Frankfurt Diet?

I'm quite willing to accept the POD being "various Acts of God", since this is war between two pretty well matched (on paper) powers.



I think Bismarck had a kind of rough plan. There is no way that all the things that happened could have happened without there being some kind of blue print in Bismarck's head of how things would play out. He knew what the dice of history needed to land on, and tried to load the proverbial dice as much as possible.



Despite this massive setback, I don't know how much real political realignment there would be in Germany. The idea of German unification was very popular and supported by the great majority of people. If Bismarck is unable to do it with military means, then its possible that the liberal nationalists get into the driver seat of German unification, and forge a more democratic (and peaceful) German unification.

I don't, for instance, see the Austrians suddenly attacking Prussia, or one of the remaining independent German states turning on Prussia. If anything, the loss would probably serve to further unite the German people. After all, the French started this war, and now they have taken some bit of GERMAN territory.

Actually, the military unification of Germany is quite possible. German revaunchist sentiments are high, and support across Germany for "restoring the Fatherland" is at dizzying levels. The popular sentiments blame the lack of German unification for the losses, and there is popular pressure to create a single German Army. This is aided by popular uprisings in the remaining German states outside the North German Confederation, uprisings which aim to force their princes into the Confederation. The uprising are a general success, and more power is given to the main legislative body. This ends up resulting in the same kind of chest-pounding militarism that Germany OTL did, only it is being done by a legislative body that actually has a good deal of power. In 1884, following a clash between German Nationalists and French troops in the bit of Germany France took after '71, the Germans declare war. They send troops through Belgium, which allows the troops to pass through because of rude noises that Napoleon IV has been making about southern Belgium. The French are roundly defeated, and Germany is finally declared. The Prussian King is made "Emperor of the Germans" (Not OTL's title), and the victory seals the power of the (newly renamed) Reichstag.
 
As a side issue, if the victory / lack of crushing defeat is early enough, could we see Rome still being gaurded by the French - leading to the Italian capital staying in Florence, at least for a while longer?
 
As a side issue, if the victory / lack of crushing defeat is early enough, could we see Rome still being gaurded by the French - leading to the Italian capital staying in Florence, at least for a while longer?

I'd think that the Italians could only be held off for so long... Perhaps Nap III manages to broker some kind of deal between the Pope and the Italians? :confused:
 
What German territory do you envision a victorious France taking ? I could see them BUYING Luxembourg with German resistance now negated

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Wasn't France interested in the Saarland? That could be the peace treaty: France gains the Saarland and the option to buy Luxembourg from the Netherlands.
 
Originally posted by pompejus
Wasn't France interested in the Saarland? That could be the peace treaty: France gains the Saarland and the option to buy Luxembourg from the Netherlands.

It seems plaussible this solution for a possible peace treaty, also as say by Grey Wolf:

"I personally don't see Bavarians suddenly voting for unity with Prussia on the back of a defeat for them all"

I think that apart of Bavaria and other german states (at least southern german states) not unifying with Prussia because the defeat against France, it is possible a return of these states to a politic of alliance with France, IIRC Napoleon III was rather surprised that Bavaria and other southern german states decided to align themself with Prussia and sending also troops to fight against the French Empire, but with a final defeat of Prussian alliance Bavaria could have a more favourable ears for a future new alignment with France (Napoleon III could play the card of making of Bavaria the hegemonic state in Southern Germany, some kind of southern Prussia allied with France).
 
I'd think that the Italians could only be held off for so long... Perhaps Nap III manages to broker some kind of deal between the Pope and the Italians? :confused:


I agree, it was only a matter of time: Italy was always going to get Rome eventually.

Thing is, IIRC, the Papacy was very hostile to the Piedmontese-Sardinian takeover, and didn't normalise relations until Mussolini's time as premier. I have heard and read that this made many of the Italian people vaguely 'anti-italy'.

With a more ordered, negotiated settlement, could we see a better relationship between the Kingdom and the Papacy, and by extension, Papal support for the House of Savoy?
 
It seems plaussible this solution for a possible peace treaty

I think that any major French seizure of German territory (and that is what an annexation of the Saarland and the purchase [read: annexation] of Luxembourg is) will greatly strengthen the feelings of German nationalism, with a very pointedly anti-French flavor to them.

also as say by Grey Wolf:

"I personally don't see Bavarians suddenly voting for unity with Prussia on the back of a defeat for them all"

The thing is with the Franco-Prussian War of this ATL, the POD was only that France won, not that the lead up was any different. What that means is that France fought a war of aggression against Prussia in order to prevent that country's continued rise. Or at least that is probably how the war is portrayed ATL. It would seem ridiculous in this ATL so say that Otto von Bismarck purposely pissed Nappy III off so that he would declare a war (and it would seem even more ridiculous that the goal of this war was to force German unity, with the ultimate aim of declaring a new German Reich on the ruins of the Second French Empire).

So France fought a war of aggression that seems to be a case of cold-calculating politics, and grabbed a major industrial section of Germany, populated by Germans. The Bavarians wouldn't be revolting to join Prussia, then would be revolting to create "Germany".

I think that apart of Bavaria and other german states (at least southern german states) not unifying with Prussia because the defeat against France, it is possible a return of these states to a politic of alliance with France, IIRC Napoleon III was rather surprised that Bavaria and other southern german states decided to align themself with Prussia and sending also troops to fight against the French Empire, but with a final defeat of Prussian alliance Bavaria could have a more favourable ears for a future new alignment with France (Napoleon III could play the card of making of Bavaria the hegemonic state in Southern Germany, some kind of southern Prussia allied with France).

I think that this would elicit none to much sympathy from the populace of Bavaria particularly, or Germany generally. France is going to be built into a monster who has plotted to keep Germany divided and prostrate. The Franco-Prussian War is going to provide powerful ammunition to this argument of victimhood (I would point to the period between WWI and WWII in order to remind people to not underestimate the political potency of preaching of national victimhood).

I think the idea of a revived Frankfurt Assembly is quite a good one. Perhaps we have King Wilhelm step down after the loss to France, and his son, King Frederick, takes over? Frederick views the liberals as the means to create a united Germany, and makes some major concessions in order to give the liberals support.
 
The lead up to the Franco-Prussian war was not so much French ‘aggression’ but rather the rise of Prussia. Everybody knew about Prussia’s earlier attack on Denmark and Austria so trying to portray 'poor little Prussia' as the victim of French aggression isn’t going to convince anybody. It would rather be seen as a case of a bully picking on the wrong kid and getting the stuffing knocked out of him instead.

The border regions between ‘Germany’ and ‘France’ have a long history of being taken as spoils of war, so nobody is going to see them as ‘German regions filled with Germans’ occupied by the nasty French! Alsace and Lorraine have changed hands in 1870, 1918 and 1940 without much difficulty….

Lastly, Bavaria and France have had a long history of mutual alliances. While German nationalism certainly was on the rise, I am sure the Kings of Bavaria preferred ruling in a Bavarian Hell than serving in a Prussian Heaven. Only 4 years ago, they sided with Austria against Prussia in the Austro-Prussian war of 1966 which would have ensured their independence under Austrian leadership. Getting them to assert their independence again with French assistance isn’t a great stretch of the imagination.
 
The lead up to the Franco-Prussian war was not so much French ‘aggression’ but rather the rise of Prussia. Everybody knew about Prussia’s earlier attack on Denmark and Austria so trying to portray 'poor little Prussia' as the victim of French aggression isn’t going to convince anybody. It would rather be seen as a case of a bully picking on the wrong kid and getting the stuffing knocked out of him instead.

You know that the French declared war on Prussia and not the other way round? Of course Bismarck provoked this, but he could always say that he never intended to do so and France declared war simply because he wasn't willing to let them controll the election of the King of Spain without protest. And the people will belive him.

The border regions between ‘Germany’ and ‘France’ have a long history of being taken as spoils of war, so nobody is going to see them as ‘German regions filled with Germans’ occupied by the nasty French! Alsace and Lorraine have changed hands in 1870, 1918 and 1940 without much difficulty….

The point is that France is likely to annex parts of german teritory like the Saarland.

Lastly, Bavaria and France have had a long history of mutual alliances. While German nationalism certainly was on the rise, I am sure the Kings of Bavaria preferred ruling in a Bavarian Hell than serving in a Prussian Heaven. Only 4 years ago, they sided with Austria against Prussia in the Austro-Prussian war of 1966 which would have ensured their independence under Austrian leadership. Getting them to assert their independence again with French assistance isn’t a great stretch of the imagination.

The King might be inclined to take such an offer. The people would not. They didn't like the Prussians but they hated the french. Offer the Bavarian King a dominant role in southern Germany with frechn backing would be a very creative way to bring to locals on Prussia's side
 
Yes, the French declared war but that can be spun anyway you want. The 'people' can be persuaded to believe anything (especially Germans as later generations will show ;)).

This great outpour of German nationalistic feeling should France win and take some border region is simply not on the cards IMO. Firstly, it has always been done after a war and there was no nationwide feeling about being German yet. People where still firmly embedded to their own region. Heck, even today Bavarians barely acknowledge they're German too. And why would the people of Rhineland Germany believe anything some Prussian weirdo with a silly mustache is spouting? Especially after Prussia suffered a defeat? And let's not forget, Bismarck was hardly popular with the nationalists and reformists in Germany. Bismarck was above all a realist and he knew that only by blood and iron could he forge an united Germany. Otherwise, the Germans would never bow for any kind of central authority. Only the elimination of Austrian and French support would force Hannover, Baden-Wurtemberg and Bavaria to submit.

My point is that France and 'Germany' have been swapping border regions for centuries and continued to do so until 1945 when the Alsace and Lorraine changed hands once more. Sure, it has often become a cause for future war (as it partly did in 1914) but the actual regions never had that much problem with it. No major uprisings, no liberation movements etc.

Where do you get this impression that the Bavarian people didn't like the French? Or that their opinions mattered much in political circles? Bavaria and France have had a long history of alliances and an equally long history of enmity with Prussia. They just fought a war against Prussia. If properly presented, a deal allowing the fun-loving Bavarians to regain their full independence from the dour Prussians and perhaps even a dominant role over Germany in Prussia's and Austria's stead might entice them.
 
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