French stay out of ARW, what happens to France?

I did mean to say the expenditures of the royal court were 36 million not 37 billion livres in 1788. Throughout the 1780s the amount varied between 32 to 36 million livres per year. Below is a detailed breakdown of the 1788 budget.

Receipts 503,546,049 livres
Direct Taxes 157,583,461
Indirect Taxes 207,966,427
Royal Lottery: 9,860,000
Repayment of debt by the U.S. 1,600,000

Expenditures: 629,628,182
Debt: 310,426,744
Military: 165,510,050

1. Civil Administration: 145,802,388
a. Finance Charges 38,035,137

b. Police 19,087,036
-Parlements and Courts 3,690,081
-Legal Counsel and Secretaries to the King 5,803,340
-Salaries of stewards and various official offices 4,077,843
-Justices 3,384,302
-Secret Police and Mounted Police 1,963,300
-Concessions 83,370

c. Education 12,187,478
-Sorbonne 1,157,525
-Hospices & Orphanages 1,635,253
-Charity 1,785,350
-Aid to the Provinces 4,421,850

d. Public Domain 23,182,041
-Agriculture 1,186,280
-Industry 2,098,000 (includes a 2,000,000 contribution to factories, 90,000 to mines and 8,000 to the Beauvais tapestry factories)
-Commerce: 4,964,000 (2,659,000 to Chambres of Commerce, 1,515,111 to Postal Service)
-Public Works 14,953,120 (5,400,000 to the Port of Cherbourg; 9,165,960 for royal highways)

e. Aid to municipalities and and Provinces: 17,644,438
-Paris walls, pavements, roads and firemen 6,399,600
-Other provinces 3,103,000

f. Royal Court 35,666,258
-Court 32,736,511
-Privileges 2,929,747

2. Military and Diplomatic Expenses 165,510,000
a. Army 105,049,050
b. Navy and Colonial expenses 45,180,000
c. Foreign Affairs 14,390,000

3. Debt 310,426,744
a. Pensions 27,225,198
b. Debts with fixed interest 186,288,200
c. Indirect debts (interests and amortization) 6,440,727
d. Interest payments on advanced funds (general administration and domains) 13,264,497
e. Acquisition of assets and liquidation of rights 11,444,497
-acquisition of goods (timber and land) 4,409,732
-liquidations (termination of contracts of Salt of Lorraine and former Compagnie des Indes) 7,034,765

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

REVENUES 503,646,049

1. Tax Collections

a. Direct taxes 157,583,461
-taille and vigntième taxes 154,725,280
-arrears received 1,316,730
-various other taxes (Order of Malta etc) 1,541,451

b. Indirect taxes 207,963,427
-Concessions 60,000,000
-Tobacco, imports, drafts, etc 150,106,875
-Other goods (wood, paper, starch, etc) 51,000,000

c. Monopolies and Industries 14,334,774
-Postal Service 10,800,000
-Messenger Services 1,100,000
-Gunpowder 500,000
-Coinage 533,774

d. Receipts from the administration of the Royal Domain (i.e. Languedoc) 50,340,000

e. Receipts from other Provinces and Regions 29,698,880

2. Regular Non-Tax Receipts 43,726,500

a. Receipts from Ancient Sources (i.e. recovery of loans) 29,913,500

b. extraordinary sources 16,813,000
-Lotteries 9,860,000
-Debt repayment by the United States 1,000,000


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This is great stuff. There's a huge amount spent on the military, despite being a time of peace. Interesting that the army cost twice as much as the navy. Where does the revenue from the Caribbean show up?
 
Direct revenue from the colonies was listed as 7,173,333 livres. Nearly 70% of that was from Saint-Domingue, another 22% from Martinique and Guadeloupe. Keep in mind that there was indirect revenue such as taxes and surcharges on sugar, tobacco and coffee imports.

However, the direct expenses from the colonies (administration, defence, etc) was listed as 13,444,854 livres. Of that figure the largest single expense was for Île de France and Bourbon (44% of the total).

Most colonies had their own budgets and Saint-Domingue's was balanced at 13,866,514 livres.
 
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Direct revenue from the colonies was listed as 7,173,333 livres. Nearly 70% of that was from Saint-Domingue, another 22% from Martinique and Guadeloupe. Keep in mind that there was indirect revenue such as taxes and surcharges on sugar, tobacco and coffee imports.

However, the direct expenses from the colonies (administration, defence, etc) was listed as 13,444,854 livres. Of that figure the largest single expense was for Île de France and Bourbon (44% of the total).

Most colonies had their own budgets and Saint-Domingue's was balanced at 13,866,514 livres.

Wow. So the colonies are actually a tiny amount of the budget. It really makes no economic sense at all to go to war over them, paying many, many times more for war expenses than these places will ever bring in. I guess the economics of these Caribbean colonies must have been similarly foolish for all European nations. I wonder if settler colonies made any better logic.
 
Wow. So the colonies are actually a tiny amount of the budget. It really makes no economic sense at all to go to war over them, paying many, many times more for war expenses than these places will ever bring in. I guess the economics of these Caribbean colonies must have been similarly foolish for all European nations. I wonder if settler colonies made any better logic.

Just because the crown wasn't getting direct revenue does not mean it was not getting indirect revenue. The colonies provided around 126 million livres in economic activity for France. Of that total around 60% went to merchants and another 7% to insurance agents. In turn taxes were levied on commerce and provided an important source of revenue for the crown. Also, they did provide an important market for French exports among the wealthy settlers of the colonies.

The settler colonies were generally a drain on France and produced very little value. It was no wonder the French decided to keep Guadeloupe rather than New France when presented with a choice. Louisiana was even more unprofitable and as you can see the French crown was still paying the debts accumulated by the Compagnie des Indes in 1788.
 
Wow. So the colonies are actually a tiny amount of the budget. It really makes no economic sense at all to go to war over them, paying many, many times more for war expenses than these places will ever bring in. I guess the economics of these Caribbean colonies must have been similarly foolish for all European nations. I wonder if settler colonies made any better logic.

Just because those colonies weren't bringing in much money directly to the government doesn't mean they weren't bringing in huge amounts of money for the French merchants involved in them. Plenty of reason for France to badly want to keep them.

Edit: Uh, what the guy before me said.
 
So, a war of Bavarian succession would be the only flash point to start a European war. That sounds good. In the timeline I've been researching for I was planning for another 7 years-esque war to precede a second American Revolution.
How about a Spanish Flash-point in the Americas.
No matter which side wins in TTL's ARW, the 1763 boundary is gone. American Travel/Trade on the Mississippi will Increase, and New Orleans will be in Play.

Britain wins ARW,
Spain closes the port, Americans attack, British/Spanish War, France enters as Spanish Ally. European War

Americans win ARW.
Spain closes the port, Americans attack, Spanish-American War, France enters as Spanish Ally, Britain enters on American Side. European War.
 
Presumably any general European war where France is directly fighting in both Europe and the colonial sphere will be much more expensive than the ARW for them. French bankruptcy in the middle of a war anyone? They could get screwed in a peace treaty, and might drag Spain down with them.
 
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