French stay out of ARW, what happens to France?

I'm doing research for a timeline that involves France staying out of the American Revolutionary War. Now, ignoring what happens in the Americas, what happens in France? Does revolution still break out in France, or is it avoided?
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
I'm doing research for a timeline that involves France staying out of the American Revolutionary War. Now, ignoring what happens in the Americas, what happens in France? Does revolution still break out in France, or is it avoided?

I think French intervention in the ARW accelerated the coming of revolution in France, but did not cause it. I still see a revolution in France within a fairly short time, one way or the other. But it would have been very different than IOTL, absent the philosophical idealism so many Frenchmen drank in from the success of the Americans.
 
I think its still on. I like to say that we're only three meals away from revolting, and quite a bit of the unrest was hunger......
 
Another factor that springs to mind; without his participation in the ARW to establish his reputation, Lafayette remains a fairly minor figure instead of being one of the early leaders of the Revolution.
 
So, it seems to me that everyone thinks that France is going to have a revolution one way or another. So I'm guessing that at best the revolution is delayed a few years without the extra debt incurred from participation in the ARW. Anyone wanna give a year?
 
Well its obviously subject to butterflies as a French decision not to kick the heredity enemy while they are down requires some serious changes in the upper echelons of the French government.
However if they had kept to their pre-1775 deficit levels they would probably not have hit crunch time till post 1800 however that is ASB. 1774 was a sweet spot for the French budget as it had been some time since a major war and continued peace meant a lower than normal deficit and faster economic growth. In fact continued economic growth was seeing the debt burden fall proportionally and the deficit narrow.
But 18th Century Europe tended to have wars every decade or so and it had been 11 years since the end of the Seven Years War so they were due for another one which would have seen spending boom, tax income fall and the debt burden grow. So even if we butterfly away the Revolution I just can't imagine France staying at peace for very long and as soon as it gets in a major war then 1789 is inevitable. If you want a date I'd say 4-8 years after the end of the next major war.
 
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Someone recently said that they had looked at the numbers, and the ARW only gave the French finances an extra year or two. However, it's very possible that this aversion of this war would prevent de Calonne's rise to power, and the splurge of spending he caused.

I think this would mean the early run-up to the revolution would be very similar, albeit two to ten years later. The calling of the Estates-General would have happened, as would the Third Estate calling themselves the Commons and wanting to look at things other than the debt.

However, here things could go differently. The idea of the nation as an embodiment of the popular will would not have had a practical example, and thus the radicals pushing for the declaration of a "National Assembly" would likely have been a small fringe based on abstract philosophe books. Republicanism would also have not been seen as something for a great country like France, as republics up to this point were generally small trade-based territories.

In addition, the ARW allowed the French soldiers fighting there to be exposed to revolutionary ideals, and bring these back to all over France when they returned. This would likely mean Enlightenment ideals would be more focused on Paris, and the messages of support flowing in from the rest of the country would have been more timid. In addition, the military would have been more likely to be conservative, as militaries often are.

This, combined with the weaker ideas of what is possible, is likely to make the Commons more cautious about what they declare, so they do not get strung up by the neck. I can imagine them focusing on specific complaints, such as the role of tax collectors, access for the middle class to the state bureaucracy, reforming the tax code and regulation of bread prices to appease the peasantry.

To the extent they do want to reform the nation, it would be more modelled after Britain. They would likely want the Commons to meet regularly, and be necessary to pass laws, and an abolition of feudal obligations also seems likely. The Assembly of the Notables also called for regional assemblies, which is interesting, and I'm not sure if they were supposed to replace the Parlements or not.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Well its obviously subject to butterflies as a French decision not to kick the heredity enemy while they are down requires some serious changes in the upper echelons of the French government.
However if they had kept to their pre-1775 deficit levels they would probably not have hit crunch time till post 1800 however that is ASB. 1774 was a sweet spot for the French budget as it had been some time since a major war and continued peace meant a lower than normal deficit and faster economic growth. In fact continued economic growth was seeing the debt burden fall proportionally and the deficit narrow.
But 18th Century Europe tended to have wars every decade or so and it had been 11 years since the end of the Seven Years War so they were due for another one which would have seen spending boom, tax income fall and the debt burden grow. So even if we butterfly away the Revolution I just can't imagine France staying at peace for very long and as soon as it gets in a major war then 1789 is inevitable. If you want a date I'd say 4-8 years after the end of the next major war.

The problem are that there are few potential flash points for the next war, at most I could imagine a greater Bavarian Succession War, but Maria Theresa wasn't really interested in such a war, so unless it's pushed a year into the future so that it happens after her death we aren't going to see such a war. Which leave Europe devoid of real pan-European flashpoints until 1799 when the Bavarian issue jump up again.
 
One of the consequences would perhaps be that England wouldn't be so much hostile towards France in the 40 years after the american revolution (French Revolution and Empire). I have recently read in the "Times" Archives online articles which justified the english policy toward France by the French policy toward the USA in the late 18th century.
 
Someone recently said that they had looked at the numbers, and the ARW only gave the French finances an extra year or two. However, it's very possible that this aversion of this war would prevent de Calonne's rise to power, and the splurge of spending he caused.

I think this would mean the early run-up to the revolution would be very similar, albeit two to ten years later. The calling of the Estates-General would have happened, as would the Third Estate calling themselves the Commons and wanting to look at things other than the debt.

However, here things could go differently. The idea of the nation as an embodiment of the popular will would not have had a practical example, and thus the radicals pushing for the declaration of a "National Assembly" would likely have been a small fringe based on abstract philosophe books. Republicanism would also have not been seen as something for a great country like France, as republics up to this point were generally small trade-based territories.

In addition, the ARW allowed the French soldiers fighting there to be exposed to revolutionary ideals, and bring these back to all over France when they returned. This would likely mean Enlightenment ideals would be more focused on Paris, and the messages of support flowing in from the rest of the country would have been more timid. In addition, the military would have been more likely to be conservative, as militaries often are.

This, combined with the weaker ideas of what is possible, is likely to make the Commons more cautious about what they declare, so they do not get strung up by the neck. I can imagine them focusing on specific complaints, such as the role of tax collectors, access for the middle class to the state bureaucracy, reforming the tax code and regulation of bread prices to appease the peasantry.

To the extent they do want to reform the nation, it would be more modelled after Britain. They would likely want the Commons to meet regularly, and be necessary to pass laws, and an abolition of feudal obligations also seems likely. The Assembly of the Notables also called for regional assemblies, which is interesting, and I'm not sure if they were supposed to replace the Parlements or not.

That makes sense; without French intervention in the ARW it will almost definitely fail, and there won't be the precedent of a successful republic, thus making a more egalitarian monarchy a la the British model as the standard government years later.

One of the consequences would perhaps be that England wouldn't be so much hostile towards France in the 40 years after the american revolution (French Revolution and Empire). I have recently read in the "Times" Archives online articles which justified the english policy toward France by the French policy toward the USA in the late 18th century.

Depends; if by the time the French situation stabilizes France decides its ready for a round two against Britain, not to mention that the outcome of the alt-French Revolution could still mean a mighty France breathing down the balance of power.
 
So, a war of Bavarian succession would be the only flash point to start a European war. That sounds good. In the timeline I've been researching for I was planning for another 7 years-esque war to precede a second American Revolution.

So in this War of Bavarian succession, what would the basic sides of the war look like? Would it basically be the same as the 7 years war, or would it be something different?
 
So, a war of Bavarian succession would be the only flash point to start a European war. That sounds good. In the timeline I've been researching for I was planning for another 7 years-esque war to precede a second American Revolution.

So in this War of Bavarian succession, what would the basic sides of the war look like? Would it basically be the same as the 7 years war, or would it be something different?

I'm sceptical this will be the flash point. After all, it wasn't one IOTL. Is there a strong enough reason for this to change? I suspect a more likely flash point might be over New Orleans or the Caribbean.

If the POD happens after the Seven Years War's peace treaties then I think the alliances will be basically the same. The following divisions are almost certain to exist:

France versus Britain
France versus Prussia
Austria versus Prussia

This makes France-Austria versus Britain-Hannover-Prussia. Russia is likely to side with France-Austria also. Minor players like Sweden and Saxony may change. Potentially the Ottomans could get roped in too.
 
Well, the PoD I had planned was an American loss at Saratoga.
What would need to happen for the powers to fight over the crown of Bavaria?
 
Well, the PoD I had planned was an American loss at Saratoga.
What would need to happen for the powers to fight over the crown of Bavaria?

Well, you really need to work out the reason France didn't want to go to war in America, because most of the reasons I can think of would also apply to the Bavarian war. Why would France give up a good opportunity to carve off the empire of Britain, their main rival, but then rush into a war to stop the (at that time) less dangerous Prussia, while handing the Habsburgs major expansion into Germany?

You'd probably also have to get rid of Gravier, the French foreign minister, who did everything he could to stop France having to back up his alliance with Austria.
 
Well, the French government won't be pissing away all the gold in their coffers by funding the American rebels. If I recall correctly, the war debt accrued by Louis XVI was one of the major causes for the economic slump that led up to the French Revolution.
 
Well, the French government won't be pissing away all the gold in their coffers by funding the American rebels. If I recall correctly, the war debt accrued by Louis XVI was one of the major causes for the economic slump that led up to the French Revolution.

The war costs were a relatively small amount of the total debt. Most of the debt was just the very lucrative lifestyle of the King's court. I suspect a European war would be much more expensive than the ARW for France.

Incidentally, most wars tend to be followed by an immediate economic slump, as the reduction in government spending reduces short term aggregate demand.
 
as the reduction in government spending reduces short term aggregate demand.

I confirm. In "Travels in France" by Arthur Young in 1787, he noted that because of cuts in public works, many workers were unemployed, and (also) because of cuts in "social" expenditures, they were nearly starving.
 
The war costs were a relatively small amount of the total debt. Most of the debt was just the very lucrative lifestyle of the King's court. I suspect a European war would be much more expensive than the ARW for France.

Incidentally, most wars tend to be followed by an immediate economic slump, as the reduction in government spending reduces short term aggregate demand.


The American Revolutionary War cost France over 1 billion livres, considering the total debt of France was 3.6 billion in 1788 I wouldn't call that an insignificant sum. The royal court cost 37 billion livres in 1788, while not a small sum, it was just under 6% of the total expenditures of the French state.

French Debt (in livres)
1721 1.7 billion
1764 2.4 billion
1770 1.8 billion
1783 3.3 billion
1788 3.6 billion

Annual cost of Interest payments
1721 48 million
1774 120 million
1782 220 million
1788 318 million (51% of the total budget)

Debt owed by the U.S. to France in 1788: 144 million livres

The French lent the Americans money to the U.S. had an interest rate of 5%. However, France had to borrow this money at a 7% rate!
 
The American Revolutionary War cost France over 1 billion livres, considering the total debt of France was 3.6 billion in 1788 I wouldn't call that an insignificant sum. The royal court cost 37 billion livres in 1788, while not a small sum, it was just under 6% of the total expenditures of the French state.

French Debt (in livres)
1721 1.7 billion
1764 2.4 billion
1770 1.8 billion
1783 3.3 billion
1788 3.6 billion

Annual cost of Interest payments
1721 48 million
1774 120 million
1782 220 million
1788 318 million (51% of the total budget)

Debt owed by the U.S. to France in 1788: 144 million livres

The French lent the Americans money to the U.S. had an interest rate of 5%. However, France had to borrow this money at a 7% rate!

The expenditures of the royal court were 37 million, not billion livres. (I guess that was a typo)

Another important factor, that led to the Revolution in 1789, was the crop failure of 1788 and the expected crop failure of 1789, that sky-rocketed the wheat, flour and thus bread prices. No political decision can butterfly away a crop failure, but if there's not OTLs co-incidence of the hunger-revolts and the summoning of the estates general, the two seperate events might bring about significantly different results. The hunger-revolts probably would have been partly crushed, partly appeased like so many before and the estates general would have been a convention of noted gentlemen from the different estates with far less revolutionary consequences. Yes, there would above any reasonable doubts have been reforms, even the representatives of the first 2 estates knew, that many reforms were long overdue and wanted to limit the power of the king as well, but it would have been reforms and not a revolution.
 
The American Revolutionary War cost France over 1 billion livres, considering the total debt of France was 3.6 billion in 1788 I wouldn't call that an insignificant sum. The royal court cost 37 billion livres in 1788, while not a small sum, it was just under 6% of the total expenditures of the French state.

French Debt (in livres)
1721 1.7 billion
1764 2.4 billion
1770 1.8 billion
1783 3.3 billion
1788 3.6 billion

Annual cost of Interest payments
1721 48 million
1774 120 million
1782 220 million
1788 318 million (51% of the total budget)

Debt owed by the U.S. to France in 1788: 144 million livres

The French lent the Americans money to the U.S. had an interest rate of 5%. However, France had to borrow this money at a 7% rate!

Always good to be corrected with facts! Do you have the split of the non-interest budget in 1788? Would be very interesting to see - is this data available online? Had the ARW been averted, I wonder what the cost of a European war would have been - more or less than the ARW? It's interesting that the Russian and Austrian governments managed to avoid bankruptcy during this whole time. Why was France so much worse?

Another important factor, that led to the Revolution in 1789, was the crop failure of 1788 and the expected crop failure of 1789, that sky-rocketed the wheat, flour and thus bread prices. No political decision can butterfly away a crop failure, but if there's not OTLs co-incidence of the hunger-revolts and the summoning of the estates general, the two seperate events might bring about significantly different results. The hunger-revolts probably would have been partly crushed, partly appeased like so many before and the estates general would have been a convention of noted gentlemen from the different estates with far less revolutionary consequences. Yes, there would above any reasonable doubts have been reforms, even the representatives of the first 2 estates knew, that many reforms were long overdue and wanted to limit the power of the king as well, but it would have been reforms and not a revolution.

It all depends what counts as a revolution I guess. I could certainly see a formal parliament established after the calling of the Estates, although it could depend on whether the hunger revolts came first or second. Do you have a list of crop failures? It would be interesting to see when would be the "best" time for the bankruptcy to happen...
 
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