I'm doing research for a timeline that involves France staying out of the American Revolutionary War. Now, ignoring what happens in the Americas, what happens in France? Does revolution still break out in France, or is it avoided?
I'm doing research for a timeline that involves France staying out of the American Revolutionary War. Now, ignoring what happens in the Americas, what happens in France? Does revolution still break out in France, or is it avoided?
Well its obviously subject to butterflies as a French decision not to kick the heredity enemy while they are down requires some serious changes in the upper echelons of the French government.
However if they had kept to their pre-1775 deficit levels they would probably not have hit crunch time till post 1800 however that is ASB. 1774 was a sweet spot for the French budget as it had been some time since a major war and continued peace meant a lower than normal deficit and faster economic growth. In fact continued economic growth was seeing the debt burden fall proportionally and the deficit narrow.
But 18th Century Europe tended to have wars every decade or so and it had been 11 years since the end of the Seven Years War so they were due for another one which would have seen spending boom, tax income fall and the debt burden grow. So even if we butterfly away the Revolution I just can't imagine France staying at peace for very long and as soon as it gets in a major war then 1789 is inevitable. If you want a date I'd say 4-8 years after the end of the next major war.
Someone recently said that they had looked at the numbers, and the ARW only gave the French finances an extra year or two. However, it's very possible that this aversion of this war would prevent de Calonne's rise to power, and the splurge of spending he caused.
I think this would mean the early run-up to the revolution would be very similar, albeit two to ten years later. The calling of the Estates-General would have happened, as would the Third Estate calling themselves the Commons and wanting to look at things other than the debt.
However, here things could go differently. The idea of the nation as an embodiment of the popular will would not have had a practical example, and thus the radicals pushing for the declaration of a "National Assembly" would likely have been a small fringe based on abstract philosophe books. Republicanism would also have not been seen as something for a great country like France, as republics up to this point were generally small trade-based territories.
In addition, the ARW allowed the French soldiers fighting there to be exposed to revolutionary ideals, and bring these back to all over France when they returned. This would likely mean Enlightenment ideals would be more focused on Paris, and the messages of support flowing in from the rest of the country would have been more timid. In addition, the military would have been more likely to be conservative, as militaries often are.
This, combined with the weaker ideas of what is possible, is likely to make the Commons more cautious about what they declare, so they do not get strung up by the neck. I can imagine them focusing on specific complaints, such as the role of tax collectors, access for the middle class to the state bureaucracy, reforming the tax code and regulation of bread prices to appease the peasantry.
To the extent they do want to reform the nation, it would be more modelled after Britain. They would likely want the Commons to meet regularly, and be necessary to pass laws, and an abolition of feudal obligations also seems likely. The Assembly of the Notables also called for regional assemblies, which is interesting, and I'm not sure if they were supposed to replace the Parlements or not.
One of the consequences would perhaps be that England wouldn't be so much hostile towards France in the 40 years after the american revolution (French Revolution and Empire). I have recently read in the "Times" Archives online articles which justified the english policy toward France by the French policy toward the USA in the late 18th century.
So, a war of Bavarian succession would be the only flash point to start a European war. That sounds good. In the timeline I've been researching for I was planning for another 7 years-esque war to precede a second American Revolution.
So in this War of Bavarian succession, what would the basic sides of the war look like? Would it basically be the same as the 7 years war, or would it be something different?
Well, the PoD I had planned was an American loss at Saratoga.
What would need to happen for the powers to fight over the crown of Bavaria?
Well, the French government won't be pissing away all the gold in their coffers by funding the American rebels. If I recall correctly, the war debt accrued by Louis XVI was one of the major causes for the economic slump that led up to the French Revolution.
as the reduction in government spending reduces short term aggregate demand.
The war costs were a relatively small amount of the total debt. Most of the debt was just the very lucrative lifestyle of the King's court. I suspect a European war would be much more expensive than the ARW for France.
Incidentally, most wars tend to be followed by an immediate economic slump, as the reduction in government spending reduces short term aggregate demand.
The American Revolutionary War cost France over 1 billion livres, considering the total debt of France was 3.6 billion in 1788 I wouldn't call that an insignificant sum. The royal court cost 37 billion livres in 1788, while not a small sum, it was just under 6% of the total expenditures of the French state.
French Debt (in livres)
1721 1.7 billion
1764 2.4 billion
1770 1.8 billion
1783 3.3 billion
1788 3.6 billion
Annual cost of Interest payments
1721 48 million
1774 120 million
1782 220 million
1788 318 million (51% of the total budget)
Debt owed by the U.S. to France in 1788: 144 million livres
The French lent the Americans money to the U.S. had an interest rate of 5%. However, France had to borrow this money at a 7% rate!
The American Revolutionary War cost France over 1 billion livres, considering the total debt of France was 3.6 billion in 1788 I wouldn't call that an insignificant sum. The royal court cost 37 billion livres in 1788, while not a small sum, it was just under 6% of the total expenditures of the French state.
French Debt (in livres)
1721 1.7 billion
1764 2.4 billion
1770 1.8 billion
1783 3.3 billion
1788 3.6 billion
Annual cost of Interest payments
1721 48 million
1774 120 million
1782 220 million
1788 318 million (51% of the total budget)
Debt owed by the U.S. to France in 1788: 144 million livres
The French lent the Americans money to the U.S. had an interest rate of 5%. However, France had to borrow this money at a 7% rate!
Another important factor, that led to the Revolution in 1789, was the crop failure of 1788 and the expected crop failure of 1789, that sky-rocketed the wheat, flour and thus bread prices. No political decision can butterfly away a crop failure, but if there's not OTLs co-incidence of the hunger-revolts and the summoning of the estates general, the two seperate events might bring about significantly different results. The hunger-revolts probably would have been partly crushed, partly appeased like so many before and the estates general would have been a convention of noted gentlemen from the different estates with far less revolutionary consequences. Yes, there would above any reasonable doubts have been reforms, even the representatives of the first 2 estates knew, that many reforms were long overdue and wanted to limit the power of the king as well, but it would have been reforms and not a revolution.