Sorry for having neglected this thread recently. I have been trying to come up with my own vision of the French government after Jospin's election, but I'm still not 100% happy with the result.
However, thanks to your contributions, things are clearer in my mind about who's in and who's out.
Let's start with those who are out:
François Hollande remains First Secretary of the Party. His immediate agenda is to win the legislative elections scheduled for 9 and 16 June. Then he will have to get the party ready for the regional and cantonal elections of 2004, and also organize his own succession to the leadership. It has been agreed with Jospin that a senior ministerial post would be given to him: Finances/Economy/Industry or a big social department - with Matignon remaining a possibility.
Martine Aubry stays in Lille and will try to be elected Deputy in June. She is, as the saying goes, "en réserve de la République". Jospin has the possibility to recall her after 2 or 3 years, either as First Secretary of the Party, or as Prime Minister.
Bertrand Delanoë remains Mayor of Paris - plenty for him to do at this post.
Jack Lang is out. He will be President of the National Assembly if the left win the June election.
Bernard Kouchner is out (he wanted more than Health Minister, Jospin didn't want him at the Quai d'Orsay, even as Védrine's deputy minister, and the big Social ministry was taken by Ségolène Royal). It has been agreed that he will be given a winnable circumscription in June (probably in Seine-Saint-Denis, Paris suburbs). From there he would be able to get the chairmanship of a committee and talk a lot.
Daniel Vaillant is out. He hasn't been completely convincing as Interior Minister, despite his real qualities. He's very close to Jospin, and I see him as leader of the Socialist group at the Assembly (with a possible come back in the government towards the end of Jospin's term).
IN THE GOVERNMENT:
Dominique Strauss-Kahn is Prime minister. I'm still not 100% convinced that's what would have happened, only 80% but that will have to do.
Laurent Fabius stays as Finance Minister. He's only been running this department for 2 years, and besides there's no other place for him.
Hubert Védrine keeps the Foreign Affairs. His performance so far has been excellent and given the international situation, Jospin would rather have an experienced and respected man at the Quai d'Orsay.
Ségolène Royal is given a big Health and Social Security department. National Education was another possibility for her, but she's never been very popular with the teachers. With François Hollande out of the government, she has to be in. She might already be thinking of succeeding Hollande at the head of the Party (not sure Jospin would be very happy with this). She would probably run for President of the Poitou-Charente région in 2004, but Jean-Pierre Raffarin, not having been Prime minister, and a disastrous one at that, would be tough to beat.
Elisabeth Guigou is a problem for me. Since 1997, she has been Justice Minister (the first woman at this post), and then Aubry's successor as Minister of Employment. She is a bright and reliable person, but she hasn't been really convincing at this last position. Jospin would want her in the government. She could have been a possible Prime Minister. He could have given her the Interior but in the context (security has been a key issue in the presidential campaign) it's likely he would have gone for a more traditional Interior Minister, like Jean Glavany. So the only senior post left for her would be National Education and Research.
Jean Glavany has been Jospin's campaign director. I see him as Interior Minister.
Jean-Marc Ayrault also has to be in if Vaillant is to get his spot as leader of the socialist group in the Assembly. He could get Agriculture or Parliamentary Relations.
Pierre Moscovici would get an important department (he has been deputy under Védrine for European Affairs from 1997 to 2002 and has also been the principal redactor of Jospin’s programme in 2002. He is a friend of Strauss-Kahn. I see him as minister for Employment and Solidarity. Not an easy task but a way for him to escape from a somewhat technocratic image. If successful, Moscovici could be a strong contender for party leader after Hollande.
Julien Dray has a good social profile, with a no-nonsense twist. I’m not sure Jospin is a big fan of his, but he would probably be in the government nevertheless. He could be in charge of security under the Interior Minister, or Minister for Cities.
Raymond Forni is the President of the National Assembly. In order to vacate the position for Jack Lang, he would get a portfolio, either as Guigou’s main deputy at National Education, or as Minister of Justice.
Marylise Lebranchu is the outgoing Minister of Justice. She either keeps her position if Forni goes to National Education, or she can be Culture and Communication minister. She’s close to Martine Aubry and she’s been a good minister in 1997-2002, so she has to stay in the government.
REMAINING ISSUES:
Ministry of Defence: would Jospin keep Alain Richard, minister between 1997 and 2002, for reasons similar to those he has to keep Védrine at the Foreign Ministry? Would he innovate and appoint a woman – Elisabeth Guigou? Still not sure…
The Communists: I see Gayssot remaining as Transport minister. Buffet could stay at Sports on a short time basis, before succeeding to Robert Hue at the head of the Party. Hue could then join the government – but where?
The Greens: Cochet would probably stay at Environment (he hasn’t been there very long). Cambadélis would also stay in, maybe with a different portfolio. I can’t see Voynet coming back so soon, so another secretary of state could be given to a new face (preferably a woman)
Young Lions: as he did in 1997, Jospin would want to have new faces in his government. Manuel Valls, Vincent Peillon, would probably be in. André Vallini as well. Montebourg is not an option – Jospin doesn’t like him and doesn’t trust him.
That’s where I am at the moment. I’ll be waiting for your comments.