French Presidential Election 2002 - Jospin wins

I intended to have only 5 or 6 "CNI" candidates elected, mostly in Provence-Alpes-Côtes d'Azur (to be more specific, I considered it could happen in Vaucluse and Var. I added Christian Vanneste in Nord and Chales Millon), considering that the UMP would be in disarray after Chirac's defeat (and Chirac's leadership would be non-existent) but also that party discipline and hostility to Le Pen's ideas in a vast majority of UMP voters would bring such a move to failure. The other "Divers Droite" are either De Villiers's friends or independent candidates. Let's go with this : 14 candidates left the UMP between the two rounds, and 5 were elected.

As for the Greens, I assumed that they would make a deal with the PS in some consituencies AND win some seemingly unattainable constituencies thanks to a third candidate for the second round (hence a Green reprensentative in Alsace, near Mulhouse, and in Jura). I might have been a bit generous with them, though.

The PS score is an extrapolation of 1997 with many three-way second rounds and the effect of sociological changes, especially in western constituencies (that's why Laval and Angers have a PS representative, which they only had in 2007 IOTL). And they have not the majority by themselves : you need 289 seats for that. They can make it alone with the Radicals.
 

Archibald

Banned
The elephant in the room is: will Jospin government close Sangatte ? (the center for illegal migrants that Sarkozy closed; a move that did not solved the problems. Illegal migrants did not vanished !)

Hubert Vedrine in the UN tackling Collin Powell on March 7, 2003 ? :D
 
Hubert Vedrine in the UN tackling Collin Powell on March 7, 2003 ? :D

Absolutely! The man was Mitterrand's adviser for many years, and then general-secretary of the Elysée between 1991 and 1995 and for 5 years under Jospin (and Chirac), Foreign Minister. Védrine is brilliant and articulated, less spectacular and theatrical than Villepin, but more than a match for Colin Powell or anybody else, I can assure you.
 
Sorry for having neglected this thread recently. I have been trying to come up with my own vision of the French government after Jospin's election, but I'm still not 100% happy with the result.

However, thanks to your contributions, things are clearer in my mind about who's in and who's out.

Let's start with those who are out:

François Hollande remains First Secretary of the Party. His immediate agenda is to win the legislative elections scheduled for 9 and 16 June. Then he will have to get the party ready for the regional and cantonal elections of 2004, and also organize his own succession to the leadership. It has been agreed with Jospin that a senior ministerial post would be given to him: Finances/Economy/Industry or a big social department - with Matignon remaining a possibility.

Martine Aubry stays in Lille and will try to be elected Deputy in June. She is, as the saying goes, "en réserve de la République". Jospin has the possibility to recall her after 2 or 3 years, either as First Secretary of the Party, or as Prime Minister.

Bertrand Delanoë remains Mayor of Paris - plenty for him to do at this post.

Jack Lang is out. He will be President of the National Assembly if the left win the June election.

Bernard Kouchner is out (he wanted more than Health Minister, Jospin didn't want him at the Quai d'Orsay, even as Védrine's deputy minister, and the big Social ministry was taken by Ségolène Royal). It has been agreed that he will be given a winnable circumscription in June (probably in Seine-Saint-Denis, Paris suburbs). From there he would be able to get the chairmanship of a committee and talk a lot.

Daniel Vaillant is out. He hasn't been completely convincing as Interior Minister, despite his real qualities. He's very close to Jospin, and I see him as leader of the Socialist group at the Assembly (with a possible come back in the government towards the end of Jospin's term).

IN THE GOVERNMENT:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn is Prime minister. I'm still not 100% convinced that's what would have happened, only 80% but that will have to do.


Laurent Fabius stays as Finance Minister. He's only been running this department for 2 years, and besides there's no other place for him.

Hubert Védrine keeps the Foreign Affairs. His performance so far has been excellent and given the international situation, Jospin would rather have an experienced and respected man at the Quai d'Orsay.

Ségolène Royal is given a big Health and Social Security department. National Education was another possibility for her, but she's never been very popular with the teachers. With François Hollande out of the government, she has to be in. She might already be thinking of succeeding Hollande at the head of the Party (not sure Jospin would be very happy with this). She would probably run for President of the Poitou-Charente région in 2004, but Jean-Pierre Raffarin, not having been Prime minister, and a disastrous one at that, would be tough to beat.

Elisabeth Guigou is a problem for me. Since 1997, she has been Justice Minister (the first woman at this post), and then Aubry's successor as Minister of Employment. She is a bright and reliable person, but she hasn't been really convincing at this last position. Jospin would want her in the government. She could have been a possible Prime Minister. He could have given her the Interior but in the context (security has been a key issue in the presidential campaign) it's likely he would have gone for a more traditional Interior Minister, like Jean Glavany. So the only senior post left for her would be National Education and Research.

Jean Glavany has been Jospin's campaign director. I see him as Interior Minister.

Jean-Marc Ayrault also has to be in if Vaillant is to get his spot as leader of the socialist group in the Assembly. He could get Agriculture or Parliamentary Relations.

Pierre Moscovici would get an important department (he has been deputy under Védrine for European Affairs from 1997 to 2002 and has also been the principal redactor of Jospin’s programme in 2002. He is a friend of Strauss-Kahn. I see him as minister for Employment and Solidarity. Not an easy task but a way for him to escape from a somewhat technocratic image. If successful, Moscovici could be a strong contender for party leader after Hollande.

Julien Dray has a good social profile, with a no-nonsense twist. I’m not sure Jospin is a big fan of his, but he would probably be in the government nevertheless. He could be in charge of security under the Interior Minister, or Minister for Cities.

Raymond Forni is the President of the National Assembly. In order to vacate the position for Jack Lang, he would get a portfolio, either as Guigou’s main deputy at National Education, or as Minister of Justice.

Marylise Lebranchu is the outgoing Minister of Justice. She either keeps her position if Forni goes to National Education, or she can be Culture and Communication minister. She’s close to Martine Aubry and she’s been a good minister in 1997-2002, so she has to stay in the government.


REMAINING ISSUES:

Ministry of Defence: would Jospin keep Alain Richard, minister between 1997 and 2002, for reasons similar to those he has to keep Védrine at the Foreign Ministry? Would he innovate and appoint a woman – Elisabeth Guigou? Still not sure…

The Communists: I see Gayssot remaining as Transport minister. Buffet could stay at Sports on a short time basis, before succeeding to Robert Hue at the head of the Party. Hue could then join the government – but where?

The Greens: Cochet would probably stay at Environment (he hasn’t been there very long). Cambadélis would also stay in, maybe with a different portfolio. I can’t see Voynet coming back so soon, so another secretary of state could be given to a new face (preferably a woman)

Young Lions: as he did in 1997, Jospin would want to have new faces in his government. Manuel Valls, Vincent Peillon, would probably be in. André Vallini as well. Montebourg is not an option – Jospin doesn’t like him and doesn’t trust him.


That’s where I am at the moment. I’ll be waiting for your comments.
 
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Cambadélis is not a Green. I suppose you're talking about Jean-Luc Benhamias or Guy Hascoët.

I'm not sure Forni would enter the Cabinet. Don't forget he was involved in a (minor) scandal about the way he was taking advantage of his position as chairman of the National Assembly (using the Hôtel de Lassay cellars for his own benefit and son on...). Since Chevènement is out, and Forni being his main rival in France-Comté, I'd say that Forni would be happy with the presidency of the Region France-Comté.

You forgot one young lion, one who was quite close to Jospin and who probably had entered either the Cabinet as junior minister or the Matignon team : Eric Besson...
 
Nice to read from you captain. You're right, I meant Benhamias, not Cambadélis - let's give HIM a position in the government to apologize!

I didn't remember about Forni being involved in a mini-scandal (I was living in the UK at the time). My reason to give him a position in the government was to vacate the presidency of the National Assembly so that Jospin could get rid of Lang.

Excellent point about Eric Besson: he might have been in, probably as a secretary of state.
 
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Archibald

Banned
Ségolène Royal is given a big Health and Social Security department.

I'd like to see how she will manage the 2003 heatwave
(I don't think the left winning in 2002 might change meteorology, while the reasons of the 15 000 deaths were already there, for a long time)

Guigou is a hottie (those blue eyes...)
 
I'd like to see how she will manage the 2003 heatwave
(I don't think the left winning in 2002 might change meteorology, while the reasons of the 15 000 deaths were already there, for a long time)

Guigou is a hottie (those blue eyes...)


The old slogan of the socialists was "changer la vie", but I'm not sure it included the weather conditions!

I don't think there would be a huge difference as far as the 2003 heatwave is concerned. One thing, though: Ségolène would not give an interview in casual clothes from her holiday residence, as Chirac's health minister did. She would be in every retirement home, in every hospital - and on every TV / radio / newspaper.
 
On the other hand, I totally imagine the Figaro's headline : "Heatwave - IT'S ALL THE SOCIALO-COMMUNISTS' FAULT !"

So can I!

Anyway, I'm curently reviewing the main events of 2002 and 2003 in OTL. Don't see significant changes. Of course the gloom that followed the 2002 presidential election in OTL disappears.

2 issues to be considered:

- situation of the opposition: does the UMP (a coalition created to support Chirac's re-election bid - at the time UMP stood for "Union pour une Majorité Présidentielle") transforms itself in a new party, or does it collapse and revert back to RPR and UDF? And of course who is leader of the RPR - Juppé? And what of Sarkozy?
- what of the 2004 regional elections? In OTL, the left got a lanslide, winning 22 regions out of 24. I don't see the same result ITTL with the left in power.
 
I would not see the UMP collapse. The old UDF was an odd mixture of christian-democrats, moderates, and ultra-conservatives whose only common ground was anti-Gaullism (or "non-Gaullism" after 1969), pro-European stance and support for Giscard. In 202, Giscard was out, the RPR was not as Euroskeptic it used to be in the old Juillet-Garaud days, and, with a few exceptions, the late RPR was anything but Gaullist. I would say that the conservative majority of the UDF would not quit the UMP, at least not before the legislative elections : those guys would not want to be labelled as traitors by the right-wing electorate. After that, all goes with the new party leader's identity.

On the other hand, I suspect that Bayrou and the "new UDF" would have kept more support within the christian-democrat representatives and would stand as a junior, centrist partner for the UMP, but with significant diffrences. I'm also quite sure that a few UMP representatives would have made a case for an alliance with the FN and would have split from the UMP, assuming (but it's safe), that such an idea would have been dismissed (the FN would not go with it either, anyway). Just scan the members of the so-called "Collective for a popular Right" to find candidates, and add Millon to the mix.

Juppé, being Chirac's heir, would have a hard time to lake the lead after the defeat. I guess Sarkozy would try to push his luck and take a bid, either for himself or for Balladur, on a "Chiraquism has failed" platform. Nevertheless, I doubt he would have had a majority at the time. Still Juppé would eventually win, or Michèle-Alliot-Marie as a transitional leader.
 
I think UMP would be butterflied away since it has been created on April 23rd 2002 (cf. wikipedia in French) while the French were under the shock of the result of the 1st run.

I think ITTL Jacques Chirac would have run the 2nd run under the then usual RPR-UDF flag. As consequence, if (which is very likely) the left win the legislative election in June, the Justice department would show a great interest in Chirac- and RPR-related pending "affairs" and UDF would to dissociate them from RPR (IMHO).
 
I think UMP would be butterflied away since it has been created on April 23rd 2002 (cf. wikipedia in French) while the French were under the shock of the result of the 1st run.

I think ITTL Jacques Chirac would have run the 2nd run under the then usual RPR-UDF flag. As consequence, if (which is very likely) the left win the legislative election in June, the Justice department would show a great interest in Chirac- and RPR-related pending "affairs" and UDF would to dissociate them from RPR (IMHO).

Very true.

Not sure the UMP can survive Chirac's defeat. And I seem to remember that Michèle Alliot-Marie, the last president of the RPR, was not at all keen in having her party disbanded.

Sarkozy was very involved in Chirac's campaign, which was focused on security. In OTL, he ended up Interior Minister - and if Chirac had any guts, he would have appointed him Prime Minister, as Mitterrand did in 1988 with Rocard. In this time line, Sarkozy would have needed time to recover from this defeat. So the first roles in the Gaullist camp would be taken by Juppé and Alliot-Marie.
 
Juppé, being Chirac's heir, would have a hard time to lake the lead after the defeat. I guess Sarkozy would try to push his luck and take a bid, either for himself or for Balladur, on a "Chiraquism has failed" platform.

Now, that's interesting. I didn't think of Balladur at all, but you're right, that might have been an opportunity for him to come-back as an elder stateman who had been right all the time. Of course Alliot-Marie and Philippe Séguin (to name just these two) hate him, but Juppé had good relations with him when he was his Foreign Minister.
 
I think UMP would be butterflied away since it has been created on April 23rd 2002 (cf. wikipedia in French) while the French were under the shock of the result of the 1st run.

I think ITTL Jacques Chirac would have run the 2nd run under the then usual RPR-UDF flag. As consequence, if (which is very likely) the left win the legislative election in June, the Justice department would show a great interest in Chirac- and RPR-related pending "affairs" and UDF would to dissociate them from RPR (IMHO).

Well, yes and no. The UDF itself had already lost its major member, Démocratie Libérale (DL), the conservative-liberal party (UDF itself was not a party, but a confederation of center-right to conservative parties), and I don't think DL would come back to the more centralised and centrist UDF led by Bayrou after the elections. Autonomy is out of question ; one of the main leaders of DL, Alain Madelin, which is the closest thing to libertarians we have in France, ran for the first round of the elections in 2002 and gained a miserable 3, 91 % of votes. Even after Chirac's defeat, they would have joined with the RPR, especially if Balladur (their candidate in 1995) is in position to win the leadership. On the other hand, the smaller members of the former UDF, the Christian Democrats and the Radicals, would probably stay with Bayrou.
 
Good point about Démocratie Libérale. You're right, they couldn't really go back to the UDF. So maybe a new party around RPR and DL. Not sure they would still call it UMP, though.
 
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Archibald

Banned
at the time UMP stood for "Union pour une Majorité Présidentielle"
How would "couilles molles" and "Union pour un Mini-President" translate into english ? (rans for cover, couldn't resist !) :rolleyes:
 
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