French President Lionel Jospin, 2002

[Archibald]

A pretty good scenario that complete mine well.
I had forgotten Aubry. She is indeed far better than any other I mentionned, and never got a chance OTL. Juppé got deprived of one year (2004-2005) and went to Québec for a year before returning to Bordeaux.

Juppé - Aubry, now that would be something. Aubry is a loud mouth while Juppé is cold with a touch of cynicism. Tete d'ampoule contre pot a tabac

I'll pick Juppé rather than Gaymard for some reasons a) because Juppé is easier for Alternate History because of 10 year hindsight b) because I appreciate what he did to Bordeaux and c) because he was groomed as Chirac successor on the center-right agenda before Sarkozy screwed the Right toward the FN.

This TL would also need Phillippe Seguin not dying so early and been given a proper role. Seguin was one hell of a character.

The way I see it, Aubry - Juppé in 2007 with a rematch in 2012. who will win and who will lose, is anybody guess. 2007 would be voter fatigue (Aubry) versus corruption (Juppé and Chirac).

 

[KingCrawa]

I got bored in the shower so I gave some thought to how you could propel Jospin to victory in 2002

You need two PODs to make it work

POD 1: Sarkozy tired of being Chiracs whipping boy, runs in the RPR primary on a significantly more conservative platform then Chirac (see his 2012/2017 suggested platform). This requires Chirac to pivot to the right in order to hold the nomination.

POD 2: Chirac pays attention to the polling that suggests JMLP was going to do well and maintains his right wing stance in an attempt to blunt the FNs rise. This costs him a whole load of moderate votes who would have gone to him out of incumbent loyalty and instead go to Jospin as the least worst option. Chirac loses maybe two per cent. This is enough to put him and Jospin in the second round

Come the second round Jospin campaigns on his economic legacy and when people talk about security issues he responds with "I would have liked to do more but the President was convinced everything was fine. Of course if I was president everything would be different" (tacitly laying responsibility for Frances security problems at Chiracs feet)

Jospin would benefit from a load of left wing votes which in OTL went to Chirac in order to stop Le Pen and this combined with his rock solid PS vote would possibly (emphasis on the possibly) be enough to push him over the line into the Elysee.

 

[Redolegna]

POD 1: Sarkozy tired of being Chiracs whipping boy, runs in the RPR primary on a significantly more conservative platform then Chirac (see his 2012/2017 suggested platform). This requires Chirac to pivot to the right in order to hold the nomination.

There's no such mecanism at the time, and Sarkozy wasn't the seemingly unstoppable force he looked like a few years after. He was very busy rebuilding bridges he had burnt and making people forget his whole support for Balladur in 1995. He hit the ground running as soon as he was named Minister, but he needed Chirac in power.

POD 2: Chirac pays attention to the polling that suggests JMLP was going to do well and maintains his right wing stance in an attempt to blunt the FNs rise. This costs him a whole load of moderate votes who would have gone to him out of incumbent loyalty and instead go to Jospin as the least worst option. Chirac loses maybe two per cent. This is enough to put him and Jospin in the second round

Chirac's campaign was already massively to the right and absolutely no moderates voted for him when such people as Bayrou or Lepage were available. He did worse than in 1995, both in relative and absolute numbers, he was very much running a campaign for his core voters, trying to keep them away from Boutin, Madelin or Saint-Josse and, in some cases Le Pen and Mégret.

Come the second round Jospin campaigns on his economic legacy and when people talk about security issues he responds with "I would have liked to do more but the President was convinced everything was fine. Of course if I was president everything would be different" (tacitly laying responsibility for Frances security problems at Chiracs feet)

That's already what Jospin was doing and what he was lambasted for, campaigning on his "bilan". And a PM in a cohabitation has no ground for complaining about being unable to do thing on domestic affairs, especially when it has lasted for five full years. What Jospin needed to do was embracing the S in PS, which he refused to do (shades of Mitterrand in '88) and strip a few points away from Besancenot, Laguiller, Chevènement and Taubira by forcefully reminding people of just how disastrous Chirac had been in 1995-7 (and 86-88 and 74-76, for that matter).

Jospin would benefit from a load of left wing votes which in OTL went to Chirac in order to stop Le Pen and this combined with his rock solid PS vote would possibly (emphasis on the possibly) be enough to push him over the line into the Elysee.

That factor did not come into play before the second round – absolutely nobody on the left wing took Le Pen as a serious threat, thus why they felt it was possible to vote for whomever they felt like since obviously 2002 was a retread of 1995, just as 1981 had been one for 1974.

One thing that could affect the totals is if it's possible to move around the date of the first round to a week later. Plenty of people abstained (my parents among them) because they were on holidays and lines were just too long to get a proxy vote. It hit particularly hard in Paris where FN votes are always very low and where it would have boosted Jospin and Chirac's numbers quite a bit.

 

[lotrian]

I actually thought about this election outcome a lot.
My main goal having been to avoid Le Pen making it to the second round, but I also wanted to see if Jospin could win the second round.
I chose as a POD a Charles Pasqua candidacy. OTL he tried to run but couldn't make it, due to several reasons (lack of signatures, being involved in several scandals, ...)
Having him run for the MPF, with de Villiers supporting him (another POD), he could steal some votes of the FN in three key regions :
1. Vendée : due to the support of de Villiers
2. Western part of Paris region. He used to be the godfather of Hauts-de-Seine, being the predecessor of Sarkozy, and has many supports there.
3. Provence. He is originally from Grasse, with Corsican origins. Basically his whole political agenda matches exactly what the FN electors in Provence are looking for.

With a bit of re-arranging the votes in his way, mainly from Le Pen, but also from Chirac, Mégret and Chevènement, I ended up with the following results. For the first round :
1. Jospin 16.18%
2. Chirac 15.79%
3. Pasqua 10.66%
4. Le Pen 10.56%

I know my calculations have many flows, but with butterflies that big, it is not unlikely.
I had started to do a second round calculation outcome, but it ended up with Chirac still winning against Jospin, so this POD might not be the best for a Jospin win.

However, there are many consequences of no Le Pen in the second round, whoever wins in the second round. Here are a few things which pop in my head :
- No "vote utile" trend. We actually might see even more candidates in 2007 than in 2002 !
- The RPR/UMP might no make this drift towards the far right as OTL.
- The creation of a party in between the RPR/UMP and the FN, with a mix of souverainism, anti-EU and anti-immigration policies and economical liberalism. I could well see it headed by people like Pasqua, Dupont-Aignan, Seguin, or.... Sarkozy !