french politics with no world war 1

i am new to this so here goes : if ww1 was postponed (by franz ferdinand surviving for instance) who will take control in france. is the millatary likely to take power? the socialists? bonapartists? discuss. thank you for your time.
 
In our time line, the decade leading up to 1914 saw a considerable decrease in political polarization. That is, radicals were less radical than they had been in the years before 1905 and conservatives were somewhat less conservative. One big contributor to this was a growing consensus in favor of the need to increase the military strength of the Third Republic.

If the start of the World War is postponed, then we would, in all likelihood, see a continuation of the military reform efforts that began in 1911 and "business as usual" in electoral politics. To put things another way, while there would be one or two reshuffles of the Council of Ministers every year, major changes in policy would be rare. Likewise, the military leadership would be so busy with management of efforts to improve the French Army, it would have no time to meddle in politics.
 
do you think there is any chance of a now strenghtened military resting the power from the republican goverment? espically if they ever try to cut the budget.
Wrestling, I think you mean. And... I'm not exactly sure, but I don't think so. There was instability, yes, but the biggest issue was the relation between religion and State, which showed itself politically quite well in the turn of the century. Without the Union Sacrée, maybe the issues would have remained, but that isn't clear per se. A larger military seems likely, but the biggest change for French politics?

No Soviet Union.

Possibly no 1929 crisis either with a booming European trade and industry, so both extremes, left and right, wouldn't have developped as much as OTL, which induced a lot of the polarization seen during the Thirties in France.
 
The French at some point basically decided that despite the hiccups the Third Republic was the way to go. Monarchist support collapsed but so did revolutionary left support. You may note that even when actual socialists came to power interwar years the business community engaged, nobody flipped out, and despite how it looked from the outside with the constantly changing cabinets and what not the same key people basically did their thing regardless.

do you think there is any chance of a now strenghtened military resting the power from the republican goverment? espically if they ever try to cut the budget.

If the ultras or socialists wanna throw a coup (they kinda don’t though) both sides will find some support from the military—but the military on its own? Nah.
 
Politics might be rather stable in France with Germany being a constant worry. I’m pretty sure most French people understood Germany could easily roll into the country if a massive revolution happens again. They need Russia to fight them in the first place and Britain too. A unstable government ruins that plan. I do see the military bureaucracy expanding more into French Africa. With politics more focused on the military France might try to utilize its North African colonies more efficiently. This might me more integration to a limited extent. French fears of Germany might push them to use North Africa to close the gaps between them and Germany. How much population and industry could that add to France?
 
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