French out of Mexico by spring 1866?

raharris1973

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What if Napoleon III started pulling out of Mexico from December 1864, with a withdrawal completed by early 1866? Could/would Louis Nap have intervened in the Austro-Prussian war and to what effect?
 
The question is why, as in, is it because it was such a disaster or an absolute success?

The other bit is that the 1866 war was simply over too fast for France to have an impact. AFAIR France didn't have the time to mobilise before Austria was crushed...
 

Saphroneth

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Peak French deployment in Mexico was only about 40,000 troops - roughly 6% of their army. The presence or absence of French troops in Mexico doesn't change their ability to intervene in the Austro-Prussian War much - the difference between deploying (say) 200,000 modern infantry and 230,000 is not particularly major.
 
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raharris1973

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The question is why, as in, is it because it was such a disaster or an absolute success?

Because Napoleon III comes to the conclusion he should be committed to getting out once Lincoln wins reelection in November 1864 and Sherman reaches the sea in December 1864, making a Union victory overdetermined. Possibly reinforced with some sterner or more explicit words from Seward.

The other bit is that the 1866 war was simply over too fast for France to have an impact. AFAIR France didn't have the time to mobilise before Austria was crushed...

Hmm I wonder if Louis Napoleon might feel he can be more demanding in terms of "compensation" in Luxembourg and Belgium under these circumstances [of being rid of the Mexico distraction by the time the Austro-Prussian War happens].
 
Because Napoleon III comes to the conclusion he should be committed to getting out once Lincoln wins reelection in November 1864 and Sherman reaches the sea in December 1864, making a Union victory overdetermined. Possibly reinforced with some sterner or more explicit words from Seward.
Not convinced here. He will not move just because of some upstart nation embroiled in its own conflict, that would be a massive loss of face!

It has to be a military defeat or a stable enough situation
 

raharris1973

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He will not move just because of some upstart nation embroiled in its own conflict, that would be a massive loss of face!

I wonder if OTL's situation was any less humiliating. That was pulling out due to combination of threats from an upstart nation and increasing fatigue fighting a mestizo rebel force.

Look at the situation of the CSA in December 1864, with Sherman's march to the sea it was visibly ugly, and irretrievable. It wasn't just bisected, it was cut into three parts!

Civil_war_1861-1865.jpg
 
I wonder if OTL's situation was any less humiliating. That was pulling out due to combination of threats from an upstart nation and increasing fatigue fighting a mestizo rebel force.

Look at the situation of the CSA in December 1864, with Sherman's march to the sea it was visibly ugly, and irretrievable. It wasn't just bisected, it was cut into three parts!

View attachment 292185
Ill have to check but my understanding of the Mexican expedition but as fans I remember, he left with at least the excuse of having put the guy on the throne.

And yeah, the U.S. hit the CSA pretty hard but as was discussed at length, they couldn't hold their own against a European power due to equipment (naval in particular) and training
 
What if Napoleon III started pulling out of Mexico from December 1864, with a withdrawal completed by early 1866? Could/would Louis Nap have intervened in the Austro-Prussian war and to what effect?

The only reason Napoleon III would start pulling out of Mexico in 1864 would be if they either managed to end the Republican resistance, or things went so pear shaped it would be inconceivable to remain. Hard to see how you can change that though, 1863-1865 was the apogee of French success in Mexico and was before serious American pressure (and supplies to the Republicans) began to convince Napoleon that it was time to steal what he could and bow out.

Even had he been able to withdraw all the forces of the Mexican expedition, well the Austro-Prussian War is also known as the Seven Weeks War. The Austrians would have to seriously blunt the Prussian successes for Napoleon to even consider being able to mobilize in their support.
 
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