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Hey Guys,
In 1863 the Polish began to rebel against Russian rule and Napoleon III gave the Poles his support which annoyed the Russians. Now Napoleon III is well known for being awful in his foreign policy (however domestically he was quite efficient).
What if in 1863 Napoleon III looked back to the glory days of Napoleon I (his Uncle) and believed that the creation of some kind of successor state to the 'Grand Duchy of Warsaw' was needed in order to counteract both Russia and Prussia somehow (or at least to have an ally against them in future). Thus even with his current invasion of Mexico Napoleon III would be at war with Russia and (more than likely) Prussia.
What would be the effects of the Franco-Prussian/Russian War? Who would ally with whom? Might we see France alone in its war with Prussia and Russia? If so how well could France perform with its commitments in Mexico as well? Would anyone ally with France such as Austria? Or would anyone else ally with the Russo-Prussian Alliance? Might we see the Poles in Prussia rebel as well, and if France does do this how will the rebels fair in Russia anyway? With Russia 'distracted' with a war against France might we see the Poles do better?