French Militarily Supporting the Polish?

Hey Guys,

In 1863 the Polish began to rebel against Russian rule and Napoleon III gave the Poles his support which annoyed the Russians. Now Napoleon III is well known for being awful in his foreign policy (however domestically he was quite efficient).

What if in 1863 Napoleon III looked back to the glory days of Napoleon I (his Uncle) and believed that the creation of some kind of successor state to the 'Grand Duchy of Warsaw' was needed in order to counteract both Russia and Prussia somehow (or at least to have an ally against them in future). Thus even with his current invasion of Mexico Napoleon III would be at war with Russia and (more than likely) Prussia.

What would be the effects of the Franco-Prussian/Russian War? Who would ally with whom? Might we see France alone in its war with Prussia and Russia? If so how well could France perform with its commitments in Mexico as well? Would anyone ally with France such as Austria? Or would anyone else ally with the Russo-Prussian Alliance? Might we see the Poles in Prussia rebel as well, and if France does do this how will the rebels fair in Russia anyway? With Russia 'distracted' with a war against France might we see the Poles do better?
 
If the grandson acts too much like his predecessor then Britain would join up with the Prussians even if they had to work with the Russians.
 

67th Tigers

Banned
No, the British were also well up for an intervention. Russia was their principle bogeyman until.... well, they still are.
 
So you think Britain might get involved if/when France does? If this did happen then is it pretty much a given that Poland will gain its independence (perhaps alongside the former Grand Duchy of Lithuania)?

If the Poles were doing so well in Russia might we see the ones in Prussia revolt as well? If so would France and/or Britain support them as well? If so would the Polish there win as well?
 
I think Nappy III would be in trouble, finding himself at war with Prussia, Russia and Austria.
How likely would you say it is for him to get Britain as an ally initially against Russia? If he managed it then would Britain technically go to war with Prussia and Austria as well if/when they join Russias side? Who would win this war do you think?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Hmm, Britain joining would be hard, they were no fans of Nappy III. The Brits especially disliked his Mexican adventure. However having Britain join France would of course give the Frenchies an important edge. But since the main war would be at land and not at sea, the French would be in a hard (but not impossible) situation.
 
IIRC the Mexican adventure was pretty much a sideshow involving only colonial troops, so the Armee Metropolitaine was available. I just doubt that would be enough for this job.

Let's assume this war will be fought along traditional lines, with a French force marching into the war zone to meet and smash the enemy. If France declares war on Russia, how do they do that? They've almost got to march through Germany, and the German states are unlikely to be happy with the prospect. Can he get Austria to support him? I don't quite see it, what with his position on Italy. But without Austrian support, moving on Poland will end up driving the German states into Prussia's arms and Bismarck can go to war crying 'aggressor' all the way. Russian forces, on the other hand, will find no problems whatsoever riding Prussian rails to the Rhine.

If Napoleon has time enough to prepare, he may be able to prise open the German League, though. That would be interesting. There's certainly enough animosity against Prussia around. Maybe not enough to work with the Erbfeind, but then again, maybe, too. Anyone know details about Baden, Württemberg, Hannover, Saxony and Bavaria? How amenable would they be to a well-prepared diplomatic effort to get the Prussians out of their hair and be 'independent' (French clients)?

I think it'd be better to find somewhere else to bother the bear. Maybe Napoleon could invade the Crimea again?
 
Well this had been an aim of Napoleon III in the Crimean War and the complexities of trying to make it a realistic aim were one of the major reasons that the 1856 campaigns were not met with wholehearted support and a way to end the war was sought.

Austria is in a curious posiition, having sided with Britain and France in 1855 (their ultimatum to Russia basically forced Russia to accept peace) but having recently seen French-backed Sardinian armies defeat them in war.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
I think the real problems are Russia and how hated the french were in germany.

Lets assume France beats the Prussians. Given a certain amount auf luck and Prussia distracted by an rebellion in Posen this is possible.
A french intervention could provoke an Austrian intervention (they had Galicia remember?), but lets assume they stay neutral or are tied down in Italy.

Still by the time french troops arive on the polish theater the polish rebells should be mostly crushed. So France faces the russian with its supply lines going trough hostille german lands (given the spirit of the time you can bet on a guerrilla campaign) .

But even if France wins and sets up a polish puppet: How do we get russia to accept that?
They could just withdraw inland for the moment but refuse a peace.

Marching on Moscow would probably not be a good idea for the french.

So they are forced to permanently station an army in poland.
This would not only be a huge economic drain, it would also force them into a continued occupation of some german territory. And here the real mess begins.

So I think the hole thing is very risky for the french, without a clear perspective for victory.
 
The French and British had no problems attacking in the Baltic and Black Sea in the Crimean War. And if Prussia joins Russia (which I doubt, they have other interests at this time), I am sure Denmark, which is gearing up for the second Schleswig crisis at this time would be happy to join. If the Ottomans let the French pass the straits, the Russians may go for the Ottomans too.

Basically, you have the Russo-Ottoman War, the Second Schleswig War, the Austro-Prussian War, the Franco-Prussian War all in one big mess?

Austria-France-Denmark-Ottomans against Prussia-Russia?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
The French and British had no problems attacking in the Baltic and Black Sea in the Crimean War. And if Prussia joins Russia (which I doubt, they have other interests at this time), I am sure Denmark, which is gearing up for the second Schleswig crisis at this time would be happy to join. If the Ottomans let the French pass the straits, the Russians may go for the Ottomans too.

Basically, you have the Russo-Ottoman War, the Second Schleswig War, the Austro-Prussian War, the Franco-Prussian War all in one big mess?

Austria-France-Denmark-Ottomans against Prussia-Russia?
Well, neither Prussia, nor Austria wanted an independent Poland, andf would certainly not help creating one.
 

Lukkonle

Banned
Well, neither Prussia, nor Austria wanted an independent Poland, andf would certainly not help creating one.
Austria entertained an idea to seperate Galicia and Congress Poland and make it a seperate entity under Austrian archduke.
Well-at least according to Bismarck memoirs.Bismarck, the Man and the Statesman, volume 2 page 255
However the Polish elites and potential recruits were devestated by events of 1848 and had no resources nor strenght to rise up against Russia in considerable numbers.
 
Personally, I see chances for France & UK intervining for Polish independence only as a part of a delayed Crimean War. Sth like this:

1850 Nicolas I got offed by a angry Hungarian
1850's Rforms in Russia; Lifting of martial law in Congress Poland; increased conspirational activity
1860-1862 of ATL Crimean War. During it an uprising in Poland takes place. As a part of peace agreement Congress Poland becomes independent.

For even a chance of successful uprising it must take place before Warsaw-Petersburg railway is finished. Otherwise it's too easy for Russia to move troops into Poland.

Of course, the above scenario would've interesting knock-on effects on the rest of Europe. For example: what of Italy?
 
Austria entertained an idea to seperate Galicia and Congress Poland and make it a seperate entity under Austrian archduke.

That could be a way to woo Austria onto France's side--tell them that if they agree to an independent Poland, it will be ruled by an Austrian noble.

The Polish nationalists might like that, but if the Austrian's powers are limited and he signs some agreement to raise his children Polish, that might be doable.
 
Personally, I see chances for France & UK intervining for Polish independence only as a part of a delayed Crimean War. Sth like this:

1850 Nicolas I got offed by a angry Hungarian
1850's Rforms in Russia; Lifting of martial law in Congress Poland; increased conspirational activity
1860-1862 of ATL Crimean War. During it an uprising in Poland takes place. As a part of peace agreement Congress Poland becomes independent.

For even a chance of successful uprising it must take place before Warsaw-Petersburg railway is finished. Otherwise it's too easy for Russia to move troops into Poland.

Of course, the above scenario would've interesting knock-on effects on the rest of Europe. For example: what of Italy?

That sounds like an interesting scenario there.

How would TTL's Alexander II react to taking the throne a few years early after an assassination and without the Crimean War to show how backward Russia is?

Perhaps early in his reign, he's all vindictive like Alexander III was OTL, but then the Crimean War and the loss of Poland cause him to become something like OTL's reformer.
 
That could be a way to woo Austria onto France's side--tell them that if they agree to an independent Poland, it will be ruled by an Austrian noble.

The Polish nationalists might like that, but if the Austrian's powers are limited and he signs some agreement to raise his children Polish, that might be doable.
How about you have Franz Joseph I of Austria assassinated in 1853, then have his 21 year old Liberal brother Maximilian (OTLs Emperor of Mexico) become Maximilian I. Then he supports the January Uprising with the independence of Galicia in return for having his own brother Archduke Karl Ludwig places as the Emperor/King of the new Polish Empire/Kingdom.

Or would a Maximilian I have too many butterflies beforehand?
 
Another thought: Let's say there is an Anglo-Franco-Austrian alliance against a Russo-Prussian alliance, what could we see happening in other countries? For example how would Sweden or Denmark react? Could we see Denmark attack Prussia with the main alliance in order to create a new front against the Prussians? Alongside this could we see Sweden attack Russia in an effort to gain Finland which they'd lost 50 years previously? Would Italy do what it did in OTLs Franco-Prussian War and take advantage of the wars and invade and take Rome?
 
Another thought: Let's say there is an Anglo-Franco-Austrian alliance against a Russo-Prussian alliance, what could we see happening in other countries? For example how would Sweden or Denmark react? Could we see Denmark attack Prussia with the main alliance in order to create a new front against the Prussians? Alongside this could we see Sweden attack Russia in an effort to gain Finland which they'd lost 50 years previously? Would Italy do what it did in OTLs Franco-Prussian War and take advantage of the wars and invade and take Rome?

Sweden would do what we did OTL crimean war: Sure, we can help you, just supply us with modern weapons first.

And by 1863 Sweden didnt have plans like that anymore. We had the Bernadottedynasty that were not to eager on foregin adventures. Oh, i almost forgott my real reason to avoid Swedish intervention in a war. I dont want to bet butteflied away:p
 
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