French intervention in the Dutch Patriot Revolution

In OTL Louis XVI wanted to intervene in the Dutch Patriot Revolution by backing the Patriot faction but refrained from doing so because of the state his finances were in because of the American Revolution. So let's say that the ARW is resolved between Britain and the Americans before France gets involved, leaving the French free to back the Dutch Patriots against the British/Prussian backed Orangist faction.

Meanwhile Joseph II was looking to trade parts of the Austrian Netherlands for Bavaria but was prevented because of the Furstenbund, led by Prussia, opposing his plans. France didn't Austria to become too powerful but now it needs to cross Austrian territory to fight similar opponents so maybe the two could come to an agreement?
 
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How does this impact the French Revolution with no French intervention in the ARW or Patriot exiles from the Netherlands?
 
The Patriot Revolution wouldn't happen without the American one. It was directly inspired by it. Prior to the ARW, the patriot literature in the Netherlands didn't consider mass popular agitation as a route to power. Focus was on winning the public opinion war among the political elite and making the Stadtholder look a failure by sabotaging him where possible. They then would use future stadtholder elections to issue in another stadtholderless period.
 
There would be no Patriot Revolution like OTL without the Fourth Anglo-Dutch War (which was part of the ARW).
 
The Patriot Revolution wouldn't happen without the American one. It was directly inspired by it. Prior to the ARW, the patriot literature in the Netherlands didn't consider mass popular agitation as a route to power. Focus was on winning the public opinion war among the political elite and making the Stadtholder look a failure by sabotaging him where possible. They then would use future stadtholder elections to issue in another stadtholderless period.

The ARW still happens in this scenario except that the Americans win the war without French intervention.
 
No way the Prussians would just let it happen. And it wouldn't help the Patriots all that much either aside from the military support. As strong as their political position was, the issue of their French support was still a problem for them, even more so when it was overt. Britain might've been the honorable enemy, but France was the hereditary enemy going back centuries.
 
Socrates,
that's getting sidetracked. chances diminish, but not down to the no way in hell category. There's also a possibility of a compromise peace, which was rejected out of hand because the americans knew the French were coming.

It's not ASB, so just go with the premise and then evaluate the situation as presented.
 
the bigger problem is that the revolt was in the 80's, while the Bavarian Crisis was already solved by then. The Bavarian situation changes from one of Austria taking advantage of a succession issue to Austria outright forcibly annexing the country on some other pretext.
 
No way the Prussians would just let it happen. And it wouldn't help the Patriots all that much either aside from the military support. As strong as their political position was, the issue of their French support was still a problem for them, even more so when it was overt. Britain might've been the honorable enemy, but France was the hereditary enemy going back centuries.

That didn't seem to be an issue from what I've read and the patriots were anticipating French intervention and welcomed them during the Batavian Revolution.
 
There's no way in hell America wins the war without French help.

Honestly, had Germantown gone differently, had Washington's plan there actually gone off, the Americans would have destroyed two British armies in the space of a few weeks. The Crown wouldn't have had a major field force left in the colonies, so a negotiated peace of some sort becomes very, very plausible.

Such a thin premise suits the needs of the prospective TL, so it's worth going with.
 
Honestly, had Germantown gone differently, had Washington's plan there actually gone off, the Americans would have destroyed two British armies in the space of a few weeks. The Crown wouldn't have had a major field force left in the colonies, so a negotiated peace of some sort becomes very, very plausible.

Such a thin premise suits the needs of the prospective TL, so it's worth going with.

The problem is one of the factors that led to the Patriot Revolution was the disastrous Fourth Anglo-Dutch War which was the Dutch intervention in the ARW. And the Dutch don't intervene unless the more powerful France and Spain do.
 
The problem is one of the factors that led to the Patriot Revolution was the disastrous Fourth Anglo-Dutch War which was the Dutch intervention in the ARW. And the Dutch don't intervene unless the more powerful France and Spain do.

There were lots of problems with the Orangist government anyway. Perhaps there could have been some other event that could discredit the government just as much?
 
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