French Defeat but Russian Victory in WW1.

As we all know in WW1 Russia fell to revolution and soon signed a peace treaty with Germany while France endured to the end, but how plausible is, for a timeline I might write, a reversed scenario in which France surrenders at any point of the war, and possibly falls to some kind of socialist revolution or fascist/proto-fascist coup, but the entente manage to win the war as a whole from the Eastern and Italian fronts either way?

What do you expect would be the territorial changes and the new states formed in Europe, Africa, the Middle East and the Pacific with France place in the peace negotiations substituted by Russia? would Germany be able to keep Alsace-Lorraine? would tensions significantly increase between the UK and a much empowered Russia after the war? would USA still have got directly involved as a belligerent in WW1 even with France out of the war? would Russia eventually reform itself into a more democratic state? if there are big geopolitical tensions between the UK and Russia with who would you expect the rest of the European nations to align with respectively? and what role would France occupy in this timeline following their humiliating defeat and exclusion from the peace treaty of WW1?

(My apologies if how I worded this post sounds or looks awkward or weird, first time I post)
 
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I’d say it’s pretty unlikely. You’d need a POD as far back as the 1860s IMO. The Russian Army wasn’t ready to fight a modern war. Russia needs to go into the war with a much larger industrial base. The Empire’s small industrial base, as well as criminal mismanagement of this base by the Tsarist government, was unable to produce war materials at a satisfactory rate.
Most vital I think is having a political leadership that isn’t willing to meddle in military affairs. IMO there is no universe in-which a Russia led by Nicholas II wins WW1. The man was manifestly incompetent.
The French Army in 1914 was one of the largest and best trained militaries in the world. Their main deficiencies were in leadership (due to most of the generals and high-ranking officers being decrepit veterans of the 1871 campaigns) and weaponry (particularly the machineguns issued to French soldiers, which jammed easily) AFAIK. And the talent was there, officers like Petain for example, it just took time for them to rise up the ranks. Yes, the French Army were close to collapse in 1917, but this was after the Russian Army had already collapsed.
I’m not saying this scenario is impossible but I’d suggest an earlier POD. In the event that France does collapse though I’d say the Entente is screwed. With the defeat of France, Britain’s lost their main bridgehead in the continent, I don’t think Belgium and Italy would be able to hold out long on their own. Even if they win a victory it would probably be pyrrhic.
 
At minimum/close to minimum, how far back would you say the POD would need to be for the change to Russia to be enough significant to make a difference in WW1? and in what ways could Nicholas II be replaced or never be crowned?
 
As we all know in WW1 Russia fell to revolution and soon signed a peace treaty with Germany while France endured to the end, but how plausible is, for a timeline I might write, a reversed scenario in which France surrenders at any point of the war, and possibly falls to some kind of socialist revolution or fascist/proto-fascist coup, but the entente manage to win the war as a whole from the Eastern and Italian fronts either way?

What do you expect would be the territorial changes and the new states formed in Europe, Africa, the Middle East and the Pacific with France place in the peace negotiations substituted by Russia? would Germany be able to keep Alsace-Lorraine? would tensions significantly increase between the UK and a much empowered Russia after the war? would USA still have got directly involved as a belligerent in WW1 even with France out of the war? would Russia eventually reform itself into a more democratic state? if there are big geopolitical tensions between the UK and Russia with who would you expect the rest of the European nations to align with respectively? and what role would France occupy in this timeline following their humiliating defeat and exclusion from the peace treaty of WW1?

(My apologies if how I worded this post sounds or looks awkward or weird, first time I post)

This is pretty plausible, the easiest way is to have Stolypin come to power earlier and last for as long as possible, his agricultural reforms had a large positive impact, couple that with a reform of the railway system and you eliminate the food shortages that caused the Russian Revolution in OTL.
 
On September 4th 1914 the Entente signed a 'no separate peace' agreement. 1914 France is not 1940 France. In 1914 France had allies, its not 1870 France. No matter how deep Germany pushes into France in 1914 - the Entente will always think it can win.
 
At minimum/close to minimum, how far back would you say the POD would need to be for the change to Russia to be enough significant to make a difference in WW1?
I’d say the latest POD for a successful Russia in WW1 is 1894. Have Alexander III avoid the train crash which killed him, allow him to continue Sergei Witte’s industrialisation program, then you have Russia going into the war with more advanced rail networks and industrial capacity.
If you just want Russia to not implode once the Germans start advancing I’d say the Revolution of 1905. Have the defeat against Japan be worse, have the government crackdown on demonstrators be more extreme, have Nicholas II abdicate in favour of the Tsarevich, Prince Lvov or some other reformer takes over the government. You might see Stolypin style reforms on a much larger and more effective scale.
in what ways could Nicholas II be replaced or never be crowned?
Fun little POD I’ve not seen used before - the Ōtsu incident. In 1891 then-Tsarevich Nicholas was nearly assassinated by a Japanese nationalist. Have the assassination attempt be successful and you neatly remove Nicky from the picture. I mean it also probably starts a war between Russia and Japan fifteen years early but that’s a whole other can of worms…
 
1) Germans do a race to the sea from the get go instead of trying to go straight to Paris and the Marne. They take the Channel ports, preventing the British from logistically supporting a army in France. France falls in 1915-1916.

2) Ottomans stay neutral, and the straits remain open to the British. The British sell and deliver supplies and guns to keep the Russians in the war. Because German prioritizes France to knock them out early, Germans don't make any gains in Poland and neglect Austria in 1915-1916. Russians can send armies in the Caucuses to Eastern Europe.

3) Ottoman neutrality leads to Bulgarian neutrality and German focus on the Western Front means Serbia stays in the war. Italy and Romania joins the war as well on the side of the Entente. Without the Ottomans in the war, the entire British Empire can be sent to Europe, with British and Commonwealth troops funneling into Italy, Serbia, Romania, and Russia.

4) 1916 comes around. It's just Germany and a weaker Austria vs a stronger Russia backed by Italy, Romania, Serbia, and Great Britain. Germany goes all in on an offensive against Russia hoping to force a negotiated settlement while the rest of the Entente invade Austria. Russia barely holds on but Austria surrenders and Germany is forced to seek terms.
 
1) Germans do a race to the sea from the get go instead of trying to go straight to Paris and the Marne. They take the Channel ports, preventing the British from logistically supporting a army in France. France falls in 1915-1916.

2) Ottomans stay neutral, and the straits remain open to the British. The British sell and deliver supplies and guns to keep the Russians in the war. Because German prioritizes France to knock them out early, Germans don't make any gains in Poland and neglect Austria in 1915-1916. Russians can send armies in the Caucuses to Eastern Europe.

3) Ottoman neutrality leads to Bulgarian neutrality and German focus on the Western Front means Serbia stays in the war. Italy and Romania joins the war as well on the side of the Entente. Without the Ottomans in the war, the entire British Empire can be sent to Europe, with British and Commonwealth troops funneling into Italy, Serbia, Romania, and Russia.

4) 1916 comes around. It's just Germany and a weaker Austria vs a stronger Russia backed by Italy, Romania, Serbia, and Great Britain. Germany goes all in on an offensive against Russia hoping to force a negotiated settlement while the rest of the Entente invade Austria. Russia barely holds on but Austria surrenders and Germany is forced to seek terms.
What would you expect would be the territorial changes following this alternative WW1?
 
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