French Civil War 1936/7

I have been thinking about what if the Spanish Civil War inspires a french right wing coup against the Popular Front? Which areas are most likely to support the rebels and will Corsica, Brittany and others areas try to gain independence (á la the gobernitos in Spain)?
 
This is very unlikely considering what happened just two years earlir on the 6th of February 1934.

Even beyond this, France did not had a fascist movement able to take power by force or through a coup and most of the armed forces were solidly behind the Republic.
 

Cook

Banned
This is very unlikely...
Actually it was highly likely. Leon Blum’s Popular Front was unable to provide assistance to the Jose Giral’s Spanish Popular Front government because of the fear that it would prompt the collapse of the government and an army coup.

Blum’s government had already outraged conservative circles by reducing the working week to 40 hours and nationalising the banks and armaments industries. Blum himself was a target of hate not only because of his politics but also because he was a Jew. He was especially unpopular with the army, and ‘Better Hitler than Blum’ became a common remark in officer circles, many were still saying it in 1940 when the panzers rolled in and they were able to determine for themselves the veracity of the remark.

Had Blum gone ahead with supplying aid to the Spanish his government would have almost certainly fallen and a coup against what would then be a Communist and radical Socialist dominated government by right wing army elements was the probable outcome.
 
Actually it was highly likely. Leon Blum’s Popular Front was unable to provide assistance to the Jose Giral’s Spanish Popular Front government because of the fear that it would prompt the collapse of the government and an army coup.

Blum’s government had already outraged conservative circles by reducing the working week to 40 hours and nationalising the banks and armaments industries. Blum himself was a target of hate not only because of his politics but also because he was a Jew. He was especially unpopular with the army, and ‘Better Hitler than Blum’ became a common remark in officer circles, many were still saying it in 1940 when the panzers rolled in and they were able to determine for themselves the veracity of the remark.

Had Blum gone ahead with supplying aid to the Spanish his government would have almost certainly fallen and a coup against what would then be a Communist and radical Socialist dominated government by right wing army elements was the probable outcome.

I would frankly like to get your sources for this, as the French army launching a coup against the Popular Front government is very unlikely as the bulk of the Army was Republican and a lot of superior officers left wing at that!

The French right wing was utterly divided during the late 1930s and fascist movements never made much of an headway in France anyway. The Croix de Feu and the Parti Social Français had a lot more in common with Gaullism than with Fascism and even less with Nazism. They were explicitely against antisemitism and racism. The Parti Populaire Français of Doriot was a rag tag of former communists, disappointed socialists with a smattering of former Action Française people thrown in. They started fighting with each other almost as soon as they were created and they lacked a coherent doctrine.

The Parliamentary right in the Alliance Démocratique and Fédération Républicaine, lacked clear leaders and a coherent doctrine. They were very much parliamentarian and opposed to changing the constitution. While it is fair to say that they did not liked the communists, they would certainly not have launched a coup against the Popular Front.
 
Simultaneous civil wars in Spain and France would be pretty bad. I mean considering how bad the Spanish Civil War was, having it spill over to their neighbours would be horrific. Interesting, but horrific. I mean, Jesus, imagine: the rule of law collapses across half of Western Europe...with potential for the UK, Italy, Germany and various Spanish factions to get involved in France. Interesting. Implausible? Yes. But it would certainly make an interesting timeline.
 

Cook

Banned
I would frankly like to get your sources for this...
England’s Last War against France: Fighting Vichy 1940 – 1942 by Colin Smith.

The Bitter Sea by Simon Ball.

De Gaulle: The Rebel 1980 – 1944 by Jean Lacouture.


While it is fair to say that they did not liked the communists, they would certainly not have launched a coup against the Popular Front.
Nearly half of Blum’s cabinet threatened to resign over the issue and his military advisors were telling him that the loyalty of the army could not be guaranteed, so a rebellion or attempted coup was not something that could be ruled out at all.
 
I found a map of the 1936 elections in France, and if one used that as a possible guide for how things would have gone on a regional basis, the Northwest would have been the rightist heartland, as would the west, and the Massif Central region to a lesser extent. The left was strong in the central part of the country, outside of the Massif Central. Also, the Parisian suburbs of course were left, and they would have conveniently surronded the right-leaning districts of western Paris.
In the Spanish civil war there was some connection between which areas fell in behind Franco and which didn't with the February 1936 elections. I'm referring to the division of Spain right at the start of the war, not after Franco's forces started to conquer different regions.
 
The Croix de Feu and the Parti Social Français had a lot more in common with Gaullism than with Fascism and even less with Nazism. They were explicitely against antisemitism and racism.

I dont know about that... La Rocque himself might not have been antisemitic, but there were quite a few people in the PSF who were. And I don't think antisemitism is required for Fascism...

But how would you dieffrentiate Degaullism and fascism?
 
I found a map of the 1936 elections in France, and if one used that as a possible guide for how things would have gone on a regional basis, the Northwest would have been the rightist heartland, as would the west, and the Massif Central region to a lesser extent. The left was strong in the central part of the country, outside of the Massif Central. Also, the Parisian suburbs of course were left, and they would have conveniently surronded the right-leaning districts of western Paris.
In the Spanish civil war there was some connection between which areas fell in behind Franco and which didn't with the February 1936 elections. I'm referring to the division of Spain right at the start of the war, not after Franco's forces started to conquer different regions.

Any chance that you could post that map?
 
Any thoughts on how neighbouring countries would react to a civil war? I assume the UK like in Spain would be sympathetic to the rebels. Italy and Germany on the other hand is in my mind a bit more complex on one hand they are anti Popular front on the other they want territories from France that can hardly be ceded by the rebels if they are claiming to save the country.
 
I believe that Hitler had some contingency plans for a French Civil War, which included annexing Austria, on the assumption that a France fighting a civil war would hardly be in position to intervene. I would imagine Hitler would try to pull off as many annexations, border rectifications and other aggressive projects as possible during this window of opportunity. In addition, Germany would also try to make sure a leftist victory doesn't take place in France, and would try to ensure that relatively pro-German politicians like Laval, Flandin, Bonnet, de Monzie and others are included in the winning right-leaning side.
 
I believe that Hitler had some contingency plans for a French Civil War, which included annexing Austria, on the assumption that a France fighting a civil war would hardly be in position to intervene. I would imagine Hitler would try to pull off as many annexations, border rectifications and other aggressive projects as possible during this window of opportunity. In addition, Germany would also try to make sure a leftist victory doesn't take place in France, and would try to ensure that relatively pro-German politicians like Laval, Flandin, Bonnet, de Monzie and others are included in the winning right-leaning side.

When it comes to Austria France isnt really the problem for Germany, Italy is.

So the germans will probably support the rebels with arms and so on?
 
I would think Germany would find it very hard to resist intervening in some respects. They can hardly sit idly by and watch a left-wing side win, which they would view as cementing a left-wing French-Soviet encirclement of Germany. I would imagine even non-Nazis in the German armed forces would be supportive of German intervention, at least through arms shipments.
Full scale military intervention with actual troops would seem to me to be much more risky, unless of course Germany was prepared to risk full European war by this time. In the case of Spain, the German Condor division was a relatively small unit, and this was in Spain, a much less crucial country, in terms of European power politics, than France.
 
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