Actually it was highly likely. Leon Blum’s Popular Front was unable to provide assistance to the Jose Giral’s Spanish Popular Front government because of the fear that it would prompt the collapse of the government and an army coup.This is very unlikely...
Actually it was highly likely. Leon Blum’s Popular Front was unable to provide assistance to the Jose Giral’s Spanish Popular Front government because of the fear that it would prompt the collapse of the government and an army coup.
Blum’s government had already outraged conservative circles by reducing the working week to 40 hours and nationalising the banks and armaments industries. Blum himself was a target of hate not only because of his politics but also because he was a Jew. He was especially unpopular with the army, and ‘Better Hitler than Blum’ became a common remark in officer circles, many were still saying it in 1940 when the panzers rolled in and they were able to determine for themselves the veracity of the remark.
Had Blum gone ahead with supplying aid to the Spanish his government would have almost certainly fallen and a coup against what would then be a Communist and radical Socialist dominated government by right wing army elements was the probable outcome.
England’s Last War against France: Fighting Vichy 1940 – 1942 by Colin Smith.I would frankly like to get your sources for this...
Nearly half of Blum’s cabinet threatened to resign over the issue and his military advisors were telling him that the loyalty of the army could not be guaranteed, so a rebellion or attempted coup was not something that could be ruled out at all.While it is fair to say that they did not liked the communists, they would certainly not have launched a coup against the Popular Front.
The Croix de Feu and the Parti Social Français had a lot more in common with Gaullism than with Fascism and even less with Nazism. They were explicitely against antisemitism and racism.
I found a map of the 1936 elections in France, and if one used that as a possible guide for how things would have gone on a regional basis, the Northwest would have been the rightist heartland, as would the west, and the Massif Central region to a lesser extent. The left was strong in the central part of the country, outside of the Massif Central. Also, the Parisian suburbs of course were left, and they would have conveniently surronded the right-leaning districts of western Paris.
In the Spanish civil war there was some connection between which areas fell in behind Franco and which didn't with the February 1936 elections. I'm referring to the division of Spain right at the start of the war, not after Franco's forces started to conquer different regions.
Uruk,
here is the url http://welections.wordpress.com/category/france/
The part about the 1936 elections is pretty far down in the article. Pretty good stuff though.
I believe that Hitler had some contingency plans for a French Civil War, which included annexing Austria, on the assumption that a France fighting a civil war would hardly be in position to intervene. I would imagine Hitler would try to pull off as many annexations, border rectifications and other aggressive projects as possible during this window of opportunity. In addition, Germany would also try to make sure a leftist victory doesn't take place in France, and would try to ensure that relatively pro-German politicians like Laval, Flandin, Bonnet, de Monzie and others are included in the winning right-leaning side.