French Canary Islands, Spanish North Africa, and more?

In OTL, the Canary Islands were conquered by Castile in the 15th century, starting in 1402. This conquest helped springboard the eventual European discovery of the New World and gave Spain both a stepping stone towards the Americas and provided a new target for the Reconquest ethos.

But what if the Canary Islands had instead been taken by France? The leaders of the Castilian invasion were both Frenchmen - Gadifer de la Salle and Jean de Bethencourt - and the first expedition left from La Rochelle, France. It's not hard to imagine the French king, even with the Hundred Years War raging, lending his support to an effort to expand his dominion. Béthencourt is financing the expedition, after all.

So, as in OTL, Béthencourt and de la Salle land in the Canaries in 1402, and seize Lanzarote, Fuerteventura, and El Hierro in fairly short order. These three islands become the Kingdom of the Canaries, with Béthencourt as their king (but as a vassal to Charles VI). This has very little effect on the war in France, which unfolds more or less as it does in OTL (with some minor butterfly effects on dates and places of battles). *Charles VII of this timeline eventually succeeds in gaining control of all of France (except perhaps a few enclaves such as Calais). His domain also includes les îles Canaries, which now includes all the islands, at least nominally.

And now things, perhaps, get very divergent from our own history.

The Castilians, deprived of an Atlantic outlet, turn their attention southwards, across the Strait of Gibraltar. While the Portuguese manage to seize the Azores and establish a string of forts along the coast of West Africa, the Castilians channel the energy that in OTL lead to the conquest of much of the Weestern Hemisphere into seizing northwest Africa.

Meanwhile, France has been colonizing the Canary Islands for decades. French merchants begin to take their share of the east Atlantic trade in gold and slaves. And then, in the reign of *Louis XI, one of his Genoese subjects, a merchant from an established family on Lancerotte (OTL Lanzarote), approaches the king with a proposal to gain France great riches by sailing west across the great ocean in search of the spices of the Far East, bypassing the Venetians and Arabs who dominate the long current route across Asia and the Mediterranean. There have long been stories of other islands further west in the Atlantic, and surely it will not take long to cross the rest of the ocean and reach the eastern coast of China.Louis XI, eager to gain greater glory for France and Holy Mother Church (and to make France appear less weak compared to the expanding Castilians and Portuguese), agrees to Zorzo Caffageddo's bold plan. On August 18, 1477, four ships depart the port of Pentecôteville (OTL Santa Cruz) and sail into the great unknown. As Caffageddo confidently predicted, they make landfall around five weeks later, on September 23, the Feast of St. Thecla (thus, the island discovered, OTL Eleuthera in Bahamas, is named Sainte-Thècle).

Of course, it does not take long for the learned men of Caffageddo's mission (which includes three priests and four merchants who have actually been to China) to realize they are not where they expect to be. The expedition lingers in these strange new islands for another few months and return to Pentecôteville in March of 1478. Caffageddo goes on to La Rochelle and then to Paris, preceded by news and rumors of his strange voyage.

And then... what? Assuming Louis XI takes advantage of the discovery, what does a New World where France dominates the Caribbean (and maybe even most of OTL's Spanish empire) look like? What about Castilian North Africa? How far can the "Re"conquest go before Islamic resistance stops it? And what about Portugal? What do you, the viewers at home, think?
 
What would happen to the Guanches in this TL?

Good question. I can see them surviving as a small minority on the islands, surrounded by much larger numbers of mixed French-Guanche and French (and other European) islanders. (Or they could share the fate the OTL Guanches did and be largely wiped out, with the survivors completely losing their culture and identity, but I don't feel that grim at the moment.)
 
Good POD I think that this has never been asked before.

I think the Gaunches would like be destroyed the same way they were OTL though. The problem is didn't the Pope guarentee the Canaries to Castille and would be less likely to support the french in their claiming the island?

Also I think that instead of Castille going into Morrocco, which they didn't conquer in OTL (not for lack of trying though) they would instead seek to send ships even farther to the south then OTL. Perhaps Cape Verdes or the Gambia. The Castillians were out for easy conquests if they are denied the Canaries they might instead go further south.
 
I have always thought that possession of one of the atlantic archipelagos (Canary Islands, Azores, Madeira...) would mean a radical change in the domain of America and so in the entire world history and this was no so complicated to happen. Your POD is one good example (difficult but not impossible).
 
Good POD I think that this has never been asked before.

I think the Gaunches would like be destroyed the same way they were OTL though. The problem is didn't the Pope guarentee the Canaries to Castille and would be less likely to support the french in their claiming the island?

Well, yes, but the Pope also divided the Western Hemisphere between Spain and Portugal in OTL, and France ignored that. I'm sure one Pope or another will eventually come to bless the French claim.

Also I think that instead of Castille going into Morrocco, which they didn't conquer in OTL (not for lack of trying though) they would instead seek to send ships even farther to the south then OTL. Perhaps Cape Verdes or the Gambia. The Castillians were out for easy conquests if they are denied the Canaries they might instead go further south.

A good point. I was thinking that with the Canary 'outlet' closed off, they'd spend all that effort and energy on lands nearer at hand, but a Spanish rival to Portugal in West Africa would work, too.

I have always thought that possession of one of the atlantic archipelagos (Canary Islands, Azores, Madeira...) would mean a radical change in the domain of America and so in the entire world history and this was no so complicated to happen. Your POD is one good example (difficult but not impossible).

Thanks! I should start working on the follow-ups.

I have a vague idea for France becoming the Spain of this TL, with a vast empire throughout Central and South America, while Spain, Portugal, England and the Netherlands are the, well, France, Portugal, England and the Netherlands of our TL. Fun with ATL borders, yay...
 
and how would the Native Americans fare in this TL?

Man, I haven't even eaten breakfast yet, I dunno! :D

Probably about the same they did in OTL Spanish and French colonies. Conquered, converted and (somewhat) assimilated, but not exterminated. Or - I dunno. What was the condition in the Aztec and Inca empires in the 1480s? Maybe one or the other survives, at least for a century or so.
 
Probably about the same they did in OTL Spanish and French colonies. Conquered, converted and (somewhat) assimilated, but not exterminated. Or - I dunno. What was the condition in the Aztec and Inca empires in the 1480s? Maybe one or the other survives, at least for a century or so.

The Aztec are toast. The were an insane, diing empire; their need for literally thousands of hears to offer to their god forced then into an ever expansionistic empire, and by 1521 (spanish conquest) they were probably on the logistical limit of their expansion. The conquered cities hated then, and outnumbered the aztecs; In fact, the spanish managed to conquer the empire, no thanks to the superior firepower (only a few dozen firearms and horses were in mexico), but to allainces with many of the Aztec enemies. By the 1480s they might be somewhat stronger, but the main problem -namely, Huitzilopochtli wants hearts, and He wants then NOW!- remains. For example, for the reconsecration of Great Pyramid of Tenochtitlan in 1487, the Aztecs reported that they sacrificed 84,400 prisoners over the course of four days, reportedly by Ahuitzotl, the Great Speaker himself. (this number may be an exageration, but the fact than the aztecs bragged of that fact is telling)

The Inca is a whole different matter. They were not conquered till 1533, and Piarro took advantage of a civil war between the sons of the dead Inca. Even then, Tupac Amaru, the last Inca, and his stronghold was not captured until 1572. In 1480 the Inca is Tupac Inca (head of the army 1463, Inca 1471, death 1493). He was one of the best generals, and almost doubled in size the empire.
The Inca were a very isolacionist people, not unlike Tokinawa Japan, and had serious disadvantages to survive as a early modern empire -their lack of a written language, and the intellectual and bureocratic class the writen language allows, is the main one- But a (failed) invassion by the conquerors of the Aztecs could be the revulsive they'd need to survive for several more centuries, provided they do the necessary changes.
The european plages would weaken then, but France would need decades of settlement before they could man a big enough army, and by then they would have recovered.


On the Europen side, you need to remember than there is no Spain. The POD is 1402; the iberian peninsula hosts the kindoms of Portugal, Castille, Aragon, Navarre and the Sultanate of Granada. Isabella and Ferdinand (married in 1468) are butterflied, so you need to think of the possible paths for the Iberian reunification.

Spain ("Hispania") was a shared heritage by the four catholic kingdoms; They may have fought wars, but always though of themselves as sibling nations. The rulers keep marring their heirs, in hopes to eventually reach the unification and rightful restoration of Hispania. When Castille and Aragon managed to marry a male and female heir, they named the joint nation Spain. This offended Portugal, who also though it had a claim of the name; a butterflied marriage between Castille and Portugal, for instance, would almost certainly result into a "Spain", too, with Aragon as the second (and offended) nation.
It was not until the imperial age, when both nations had their expanding empires, when the reunification idea lost its weight.

Granada is a dead man walking. It is a vassal kindom of Castilla, and will only remain independent until a king decides the advantaged outweight the benefits.
OTL this ruler was Queen Isabella; the civil war than placed her on the throne showed her (and her VERY crafty husband, who inspired Macchiavelli to write his book...) than the nobles had too much power, and their private armies had to dissapear FAST. The Spanish (castillian+aragonese) army than conquered Granada was one of the first, of not the first, national army on the modern sense, that did not depent on the nobles troops but was riased and paid by the State.
Granada is gone as soon as Castille decides it must go; even if no civil sucession war appears, the rising Ottoman influence in North Africa and Granada must be stopped.

Navarra was the last Spanish kingdom to join (1514), and that was by conquest; before unification it was always closer to France, so a more imperial France may ensure it remains on her sphere -or, in the opposite direction, a france busy outremer may allow Castille to swallow both the French and Spanish sides of Navarre. Conquered or not, it is a small, landlocked nation between France and Spain, so unless conquered by either nation it will slowly fade into irrelevancy, the scenario of constant clashes between the spanish and french armies.

Portugal and Aragon are busy with their maritime empires -Portugal on the Atlantic and Aragon on the Mediterranean.
This means than, barring a unusually religious king on either nation, the main unification push will come from Castille as in OTL. Castille navy is weak, but the army is the stronger in Iberia. It will conquer Granade evetually, and may go for Navarre, too.
After that is done, it will have a lot of energy to spend somewhere, and France beat then to the Carribean. It will keep working on the Iberian Union, peacefully (by marriages) or by conquest. Fifteen century Portugal would be hard pressed to prevent a Castillian conquest.
And then there is Morocco. It is not well known, but northern morocco WAS part of Hispania; Ceuta was the fist important spanish city to fall. The Reconquista is not over. In OTL, they never followed trough; They had the empire, and the endless Hapsburg wars in Europe, and all the invassion in Africa were half hearted efforts.

But Charles I and his entire dinasty have been butterflied, so why should either Castille or a reunited Spain care about some religion war in Germany? The Ottomans in Tunisia are far more pressing, and while the Ottoman are VERY strong in the 15th century, they are at the very far end of the supply chain. The same logistic probelm than prevented the Bizantine to keep Northern Africa after it was reconquest would affect the Ottomans, and if Castille has its entire manpower and sheer catholic strongheadness directed to northern africa, what could happen?

Note than a butterflied Isabella also butterflies the Jewish expulsion, but probably not the forced muslim conversion and eventual expulsion (the reasons for those -the Ottoman agents- remain)



~realizes than he has helped a timeline where France -France!- gets the Americans and Canary Islands~ And now I need to take a shower. I feel dirty.
 
What does a Spider King do?
He has just consolidated power so he won't risk a powerful duke setting up shop in the New World, but he is a modernizer who likes trade.

The Caribbean Islands are taken over. Cuba is split into small chunks so no one man can get too powerful. Some trade begins with cities on the coast; on the edge of the Aztec "empire". Enemies of the Aztec are helped to defeat the Aztec, but if Lois XI is still king, he may not want the region to fall - because if a European was in charge of the area he might eventually pose a threat to France. Reports from central america would fill the Spider King's dark heart with joy - many squabbling small states which can be played against each other. They have gold (and crafted goods, and chocolate, and on and on), France has much to trade.

I think cultural effects are often over looked in TLs. So I want to toss out an idea here. There were reports that Spain was very impressed with the quality of craftsmanship and art from the Aztecs OTL, but in the wholesale plunder of that land metal was melted down into ingots for easy shipment, and artisans were displaced by the turmoil of the times. Say France does not completely topple the central american states but plays them against each other and trades with them all. Say Anne of France takes over after the Spider dies. And say that the flow of material to Europe is more measured than in OTL. France gets a large amount of central american art; from golden statues to feathered cloaks. These then influence art in most of Europe.
 
What was the condition in the Aztec and Inca empires in the 1480s?
Incans had just finished (maybe still were) conquering the Chimu. IIRC, the Chimu almost won, but were definitely defeated by the 1470s. So, a decade or two of weakness whilst assilimating a very numerous conquered enemy and recuperating and rebuilding. Would-be conquerors had best get there quickly!
 
Possibly with the French in control of the Canary Islands, the Castilians gain Madeira instead of Portugal and use that as their base for further explorations?

After all, Madeira was discovered by Portugal in 1419 by a ship driven there by a storm.
 
Madeira's fate now belongs to luck; with France, Castille and Portugal sailing on the zone, and hte island unclaimed, it will go to the first one to find it (Castille getting it, with the Azores to Portugal and the Canaries to France has a nice symmetry)

Note than France will have not the same monopoly Spain managed to arrange for the Americas. Reunited Spain had the strong Aragonese navy and the Castillian army; France only has, so far, a strong army.
More importantly, Castille hates France, and Portugal is far more friendly to England. OTL, Portugal and Spain were in such friendly terms than they divided the world between thenselves (Teatry of Tordesillas), and, bordering ABS in OTL, kept it with onyl minor troubles for centuries.

That gave Spain almost total monopoly on the Americas; the only other powerful nation on the Atlantic, early fifteen century, was Portugal, and it respected the spanish claim (as Spain respected Protugal claim on Africa). But as soon as other nations (England, France, even the Netherlands) developed their navies, the unclaimed lands were colonized. That took one century, but in this timeline, Portugal already has the navy ready, Castille will probably develop it soon if she crosses to Morocco (not to mention France sticking her nose in the Canaries and maybe Madeira), and Aragon, Venice and Genoa shouldn't have too much problem in building new atlantic ships instead of their mediterranean type (now Spain does not have a reason to control the straits traffic towards America). England and the Netherlands will follow in due time, as they did OTL.

France will not be able to control the entire southern continet like Spain did -unlike Spain, France does not have a mountain range and the sea protecting its borders; it must keep a good part of its military force to protect the home nation. It will look more like Africa's colonization, with several nations carving their colonies.
 
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