alternatehistory.com

Another spinoff of the CP Italy discussion. The goal is to have the following WWI lineup:

Alliance:

Germany, Britain, Italy, Scandinavia, Turkey.

Entente:

France, Russia, Austria, Spain.

My idea (a variant of the ideas developed by Lord Kalvan and me in my previous "a different 1866" discussion, and by Franciscus Caesar's "Italy, a destiny fulfilled" fine TL):

Italy gets a rather more efficient government in 1861-66 (either Cavour survives, or an ATL more talented statesman emerges, as in FC's TL). As a result, Italian economy and state-building are managed rather better, and Italy reaches 1866 with a much fitter military (mostly, a better high command, since the bulk of the army and navy were actually already rather good, although shaping the Italian army on the Prussian model definitely helps). They seek a strong alliance with Prussia against Austria. The 1866 war happens.

As a result, Italy wins decisive victories on land and at sea against Austria, as good as the Prussian ones. The Austrian army is effectively destroyed, the navy is decimated, and the Italians occupy Trento and Kustenland, and land in Dalmatia. They claim all of those lands at the peace table. Spurred by their ally's success, King Wilhelm and the Prussian generals get greedy and put irresistible pressure on Bismarck to get Prussia its hefty slice of Habsburg flesh. So Otto reluctantly claims Bohemia-Moravia.

Crying foul about the balance of power, Napoleon III threatens war. With their armies massed in the East, Prussia and Italy are forced to compromise on their claims, but they do not forgive nor forget. Prussia annexes Hanover, Saxony, Austrian Silesia, and the German-majority districts of northern Bohemia-Moravia (effectively, the Sudetenland, except the parts bordering German Austria), but leaves Czechia alone. Italy annexes Veneto, Trento, and Gorizia-Gradisca, but leaves Trieste, Istria, and Dalmatia alone.

Prussian-Italian alliance is confirmed and strenghtened, France is alarmed at their growing might, and seeks a pretext to cut down the upstart duo. Austria, utterly humiliated by the defeat, slips into growing domestic unrest.

The casus belli for France comes a couple of years later, when it unsuccessfully tries to annex Luxemburg, and is vetoed by Prussia, and Italian patriots overthrow the Pope, which France protects. War explodes between France and the Italo-Prussian alliance. Despite the overconfident expectations of the French, they get their butts handed them on a plate. Austria makes moves to join France, but resistance by Pan-German nationalist opinion brings it further on the brink of revolution, so it backs down.

Prussia unifies Germany, which annexes Luxemburg, Alsace, and Lorraine, up to the Meuse. Italy annexes Savoy, Corsica, Nice, and the Riviera, up to Hyeres, as well as eastern Algeria (Oran). After doing so well twice in a row, the German-Italian partnership is solidified into an irontight strategic and economic bloc. The shock of the defeat and of the Commune soon results into the takeover of France by a reactionary-authoritarian Bourbon monarchy.

In the meanwhile, Austria further spirals into domestic discord, as the various nationalities fight for power between themselves and against the discredited Habsburg regime. Half-baked attempts at a power-sharing compromise between Germans and Magyars flounder. Unrest brews into the Balkans, and Russia prepares to intervene against Turkey. Revolution explodes in Austria, and soon the Habsburg empire is an a mess worse than 1848, with the Pan-German nationalists, liberals, and Magyar nationalists in open rebellion and the army into disarray.

In desperation, Franz Josef, old reactionary that he is, swallows pride and petitions Russia for help as in 1848. Effectively, he offers territorial cessions and to make Austria into a vassal of Russia, with full support for Russian expansionism in the Balkans, in exchange for keeping his throne with the support of Russian bayonets. Russia, seeing an opportunity to affirm its hegemony in central and eastern Europe, accepts the offer, and its army, already mobilized to fight the Turks, makes a diversion and crushes the rebellions in the Habsburg Empire. They annex Krakow, Galicia, and Bukovina as compensation for their trouble.

Germany and Italy, although appalled to see such a brazen expansion of Russian power in their backyard, are powerless to intervene, with most of their armies still in France.

The restored Habsburg, now effectively a client of Russia, set up a much more centralized state, controlled by a loyalist coalition of Czechs, Croats, and reactionaries that keep down the Magyars, the Pan-German nationalists, and the liberals. Unity and centralization are the main themes of Hapsburg rule, leading to the repression of ethnic nationalisms (especially Magyars, but also extending into suppressing outspoken Pan-German nationalists) and the imposition of a steadily more authoritarian system. Discontent simmers under the surface, but for now the dynasty is able to keep in control with Russian support. The Russians sponsor Balkan nationalism against the Ottomans, but out of respect for their Austrians allies suppress the notion of Pan-Slavism as it concerns the subjects of the Habsburg.

Emboldened by their successes in Austria, the Russians soon restart their offensive plans in the Balkans and attack Turkey. The war is a success, and the Russians armies get in sight of Constantinople, but Britain, scared by Russian control of the Straits, threatens war, soon backed by Germany and Italy, that by now have concluded peace with France and are ready to intervene in the East if need be.

An international conference is called in the Hague, where the Russo-Austrian-French bloc is pitted against the Anglo-Italo-German one. As pretty much every power but Britain is burdened by war fatigue at this point, there is no great willingness to fight a general war, so reluctantly, a last-ditch compromise is reached:

Russia gains southern Bessarabia and the districts of Ardahan, Artvin, Batum, Kars, Olti, and Beyazit, Romania gets independence and northern Dobruja, Serbia gets independence and a northern slice of Kosovo, Bulgaria gets self-rule in OTL modern borders, Greece gains Thessaly and southern Epirus, Britain gets Cyprus, Italy gets a sphere of influence in Tunisia and Libya, Crete is put under the administration of the Great Powers, Bosnia becomes a self-ruling principality under a sovreign picked by the powers. Montenegro gets independent under an Italian protectorate. The Ottomans keep Albania, Macedonia, most of Kosovo, and Thrace, and they are bound by the powers to enact a strrong set of capitulations and internal reform for their Christian subjects. The powers proscribe every state and principality from enacting abuses on their minorities.

France, slowly recovering from the defeat, and seeking support for revenge against the German-Italian bloc, signs the Triple Entente with Russia and Austria, building a bloc of reactionary-authoritarian powers. Soon afterwards, the Bourbon monarchy, which has a Carlist dynastic claim on the throne of Spain, sponsors a Carlist coup in Spain, and a French-Spanish dynastic union is formed.

Germany and Italy, feeling encircled by the reactionary powers bloc, and Britain, fearing the expansion of Franco-Russian power in the continent, sign the Triple Alliance.

Seeking further allies in the continent against Russia, Britain fosters a reconciliation between Denmark and Germany, and the unity of the Nordic states. Denmark, Norway, and Sweden unite into Scandinavia, which joins the Triple (now Quadruple) Alliance.

Britain, Germany, Italy, and Scandinavia build an economic bloc alongside the military alliance, and British investment fosters the development of Germany, Italy, and Scandinavia, while France strives to do the same for Austria, Spain, and Russia. Italy especially benefits from Anglo-German support and soon becomes the economic and military equal of France. Economic prosperity, alliance with Britain, and rivalry with reactionary powers foster the evolution of Germany and Italy towards a British-syle liberal constitutional monarchy system, which gives an ideological, liberal-reactionary undertone to the rivalry between the alliance blocs.

The Quadruple Alliance powers also support the modernization of the Ottoman Empire, even if Turkey has to recognize an Italian protectorate over Tunisia and Libya and a British protectorate over Egyot and Sudan Britain as the price for their support. In due time it becomes an unofficial fifth member of the Quadruple Alliance (the liberal, Christian great powers are not quite willing to give the dignity of a formal alliance to a Muslim, semi-authoritarian state whose strength they do not really trust). Eventually, a general European conflict breaks out.

I'm not entirely sure how the Balkan powers would align themselves in this WWI. Japan would almost surely join the Alliance during the war, America may stay neutral or join the Alliance if it previously fought the Entente over the Spanish colonies and lost.
Top