French Algeria partition?

[Inspector Javert]

How would something like this work? I'm thinking it would probably wind up being the North African version of Israel/Palestine, only spread out over a much larger area, which means that it will probably be even more of a nightmare for the governments/militaries involved.

(this was actually considered in real life)

The biggest problem with this is that Europeans (most weren't ethnically French, surprisingly) were spread all over the place, so unlike, say, Czechoslovakia, it would be impossible to do a partition that didn't leave hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people on the wrong side of the border.

Any partition without some sort of population exchange (a la Greece and Turkey in the 20s) would have failed to achieve the stated objective of a state for each ethnic group (European and Arab).

Another problem is the sparsely populated southern region of the country. It is full of oil, so France would want it, but it is notoriously hard to secure (even to this day, there is a lot of instability and violence in the region)

I could see some sort of population exchange resulting on France holding onto the northwestern coast (from the Moroccan border up to Algiers), but I couldn't see France holding onto much more.

What would this mean for 2021? What would the region be like today if France had held onto the northwestern coast and done a population exchange?

Would it cause an endless geopolitical conflict between France (and Europe in general) and Algeria/Morocco (and maybe the entire Arab League, like Israel/Palestine has)

Would France be a closer ally to Israel in this timeline?

Assuming that Europeans were an overwhelming majority of this French Algeria rump territory, would there be strong pressure on France to cede it to Algeria?

 

[Pelranius]

A population exchange would make the French strip economically unviable (somebody has to do all those low paying jobs that the Algerians did).

 

[Deleted member 94680]

A population exchange would make the French strip economically unviable (somebody has to do all those low paying jobs that the Algerians did).

There would be 'acceptable' immigration to the "Oran, Alger, Constantine Strip" probably. French 'citizens' from sub-Saharan Africa and the like. Much as there is/was to the metropole, OTL

 

[Pelranius]

There would be 'acceptable' immigration to the "Oran, Alger, Constantine Strip" probably. French 'citizens' from sub-Saharan Africa and the like. Much as there is/was to the metropole, OTL

Given how the pied noirs treated the Algerians, importing what's likely to be at least a very large minority (33+% of total population) is going to create another nightmare in a generation by latest.

 

[Masked Grizzly]

In a scenario where the Italians successfully colonize Tunisia/Libya, how plausible would it have been for the French to colonize and concentrate more of their population in the eastern part of Algeria near Tunisia in order to lay the groundwork for a French majority state to be established post-partition?

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Given how the pied noirs treated the Algerians, importing what's likely to be at least a very large minority (33+% of total population) is going to create another nightmare in a generation by latest.

True, but I imagine a “Pied Noir state” would enact ‘controls’ on ‘guest workers’ to prevent reoccurrences of previous troubles.

 

[Pelranius]

True, but I imagine a “Pied Noir state” would enact ‘controls’ on ‘guest workers’ to prevent reoccurrences of previous troubles.

The controls needed on 'guest workers' would likely cripple the economy (for starters, you're going to have to devote very, very large amounts of security resources on the guest workers, and also deal with border conflicts)

 

[walmart]

how plausible would it have been for the French to colonize and concentrate more of their population in the eastern part of Algeria near Tunisia in order to lay the groundwork for a French majority state to be established post-partition?

No the French population of Algeria was decreasing even before the Algerian war

 

[Deleted member 94680]

The controls needed on 'guest workers' would likely cripple the economy (for starters, you're going to have to devote very, very large amounts of security resources on the guest workers, and also deal with border conflicts)

I meant more along the lines of limited period visas, limited numbers and restrictions on employment.

Not some kind alt third reich with camps.

 

[mrmandias]

A population exchange would make the French strip economically unviable (somebody has to do all those low paying jobs that the Algerians did).

Yes. The populations were all mixed together because the Europeans were not running their own separate economy, they were using cheap Algerian labor in everything

 

[Dunois]

For such a scenario to happen it requires the full support of the French state and the French army enforcing partition by force if needed. De Gaulle wasn't in favour of partition OTL but other members of his cabinet were so this provides an opening of sorts for it to happen. This or alternatively a pro French-Algeria coup succeeds wit coup plotters acknowledging that they can't keep the entirety of Algeria.
In a no-coup scenario, Evian negotiations also need to somewhat fail spectacularly for partition to happen, as this guarantees continued hostility between France and the FLN.

Harkis, moghazis and other pro-French loyalists would be moved to the partitioned area and this could very well amount to anything between 1 and 2 million people, adding themselves to the 1 million pied-noirs.

The most likely partition in my opinion would look like the map below with the addition of a likely protectorate and some form of control over the Saharan territories. It is naïve to think that Saharan resources would be shared between France and Algeria.

This reduced French Algeria will likely be divided into 3 or 4 départements and become its own region of France. Full equality between all citizens will become a fact of life just like it is in other French overseas territories. Is this partitioned French Algeria viable you may ask?

It actually is but the reality on the ground won't be pretty at all. It will be a "French Israel" of sorts and tensions with whatever Algerian state emerges are likely to be very high and a state of near-war may prevail for some time. The borders will be fortified with electrical fences, minefields and patrol tracks just like the borders with Tunisia and Morocco were OTL though the Morice line. The French will win this battle and be most likely able to maintain internal control of French Algeria through the use of auxiliaries. France will also have acces to the oil and gaz wealth of the Saharan desert and will likely be able to make billions from this. Money that if it's invested correctly could be invested in infrastructure in French Algeria and in bridging the gap between the two populations. The whole of France may even benefit from the influx of money as well but I don't see France doing something similar to what Norway did with its wealth fund.

The Algerian state that emerges from all of this will become extremely hostile to France and the West in general. Without access to oil money it will also be very poor and could even become a failed state under certain conditions too.
Relations between France and the Arab world will be hostile TTL and France will likely remain best friends with Israel as was the case for some time OTL.

I think that the partition could last until the present day. However TTL France will be a different country to OTL France in some respects. It will be meaner, more assertive and depending on the circumstances in which partition takes place may even have had an authoritarian period in the 1960s. The relationship between France and its Muslim minority will be different than OTL. On one hand there may be even more hostility towards Arabs in general given a protracted struggle in Algeria with battles on the borders. But on the other hand it's also quite possible that the harkis/loyalists in Algeria will just become a part of the French national fabric and become accepted as such. The fact that other Arabs will likely perceive the harkis and loyalists as traitors is bound to bring them and the French together eventually and if France doesn't screw up.

Another consequence of a partition is that North Africa will be way more unstable than OTL and terrorism may become a problem earlier than OTL.

 

[Pelranius]

I meant more along the lines of limited period visas, limited numbers and restrictions on employment.

Not some kind alt third reich with camps.

Limiting the numbers will collapse the economy (not to mention the cost of constantly having to recruit and transport new workers). Those restrictions will also make work in partitioned Algeria less attractive, which means France has to spend more.

 

[Pelranius]

For such a scenario to happen it requires the full support of the French state and the French army enforcing partition by force if needed. De Gaulle wasn't in favour of partition OTL but other members of his cabinet were so this provides an opening of sorts for it to happen. This or alternatively a pro French-Algeria coup succeeds wit coup plotters acknowledging that they can't keep the entirety of Algeria.
In a no-coup scenario, Evian negotiations also need to somewhat fail spectacularly for partition to happen, as this guarantees continued hostility between France and the FLN.

Harkis, moghazis and other pro-French loyalists would be moved to the partitioned area and this could very well amount to anything between 1 and 2 million people, adding themselves to the 1 million pied-noirs.

The most likely partition in my opinion would look like the map below with the addition of a likely protectorate and some form of control over the Saharan territories. It is naïve to think that Saharan resources would be shared between France and Algeria.

This reduced French Algeria will likely be divided into 3 or 4 départements and become its own region of France. Full equality between all citizens will become a fact of life just like it is in other French overseas territories. Is this partitioned French Algeria viable you may ask?

It actually is but the reality on the ground won't be pretty at all. It will be a "French Israel" of sorts and tensions with whatever Algerian state emerges are likely to be very high and a state of near-war may prevail for some time. The borders will be fortified with electrical fences, minefields and patrol tracks just like the borders with Tunisia and Morocco were OTL though the Morice line. The French will win this battle and be most likely able to maintain internal control of French Algeria through the use of auxiliaries. France will also have acces to the oil and gaz wealth of the Saharan desert and will likely be able to make billions from this. Money that if it's invested correctly could be invested in infrastructure in French Algeria and in bridging the gap between the two populations. The whole of France may even benefit from the influx of money as well but I don't see France doing something similar to what Norway did with its wealth fund.

The Algerian state that emerges from all of this will become extremely hostile to France and the West in general. Without access to oil money it will also be very poor and could even become a failed state under certain conditions too.
Relations between France and the Arab world will be hostile TTL and France will likely remain best friends with Israel as was the case for some time OTL.

I think that the partition could last until the present day. However TTL France will be a different country to OTL France in some respects. It will be meaner, more assertive and depending on the circumstances in which partition takes place may even have had an authoritarian period in the 1960s. The relationship between France and its Muslim minority will be different than OTL. On one hand there may be even more hostility towards Arabs in general given a protracted struggle in Algeria with battles on the borders. But on the other hand it's also quite possible that the harkis/loyalists in Algeria will just become a part of the French national fabric and become accepted as such. The fact that other Arabs will likely perceive the harkis and loyalists as traitors is bound to bring them and the French together eventually and if France doesn't screw up.

The pied noirs aren't going to accept political and economic equality with the harkis, especially if the harkis are 50%+ of the population (a share which will only continue to grow due to TFR disparities). Likewise, the harkis will not accept being even second class citizens.

 

[GauchoBadger]

For such a scenario to happen it requires the full support of the French state and the French army enforcing partition by force if needed. De Gaulle wasn't in favour of partition OTL but other members of his cabinet were so this provides an opening of sorts for it to happen. This or alternatively a pro French-Algeria coup succeeds wit coup plotters acknowledging that they can't keep the entirety of Algeria.
In a no-coup scenario, Evian negotiations also need to somewhat fail spectacularly for partition to happen, as this guarantees continued hostility between France and the FLN.

Harkis, moghazis and other pro-French loyalists would be moved to the partitioned area and this could very well amount to anything between 1 and 2 million people, adding themselves to the 1 million pied-noirs.

The most likely partition in my opinion would look like the map below with the addition of a likely protectorate and some form of control over the Saharan territories. It is naïve to think that Saharan resources would be shared between France and Algeria.


This reduced French Algeria will likely be divided into 3 or 4 départements and become its own region of France. Full equality between all citizens will become a fact of life just like it is in other French overseas territories. Is this partitioned French Algeria viable you may ask?

It actually is but the reality on the ground won't be pretty at all. It will be a "French Israel" of sorts and tensions with whatever Algerian state emerges are likely to be very high and a state of near-war may prevail for some time. The borders will be fortified with electrical fences, minefields and patrol tracks just like the borders with Tunisia and Morocco were OTL though the Morice line. The French will win this battle and be most likely able to maintain internal control of French Algeria through the use of auxiliaries. France will also have acces to the oil and gaz wealth of the Saharan desert and will likely be able to make billions from this. Money that if it's invested correctly could be invested in infrastructure in French Algeria and in bridging the gap between the two populations. The whole of France may even benefit from the influx of money as well but I don't see France doing something similar to what Norway did with its wealth fund.

The Algerian state that emerges from all of this will become extremely hostile to France and the West in general. Without access to oil money it will also be very poor and could even become a failed state under certain conditions too.
Relations between France and the Arab world will be hostile TTL and France will likely remain best friends with Israel as was the case for some time OTL.

I think that the partition could last until the present day. However TTL France will be a different country to OTL France in some respects. It will be meaner, more assertive and depending on the circumstances in which partition takes place may even have had an authoritarian period in the 1960s. The relationship between France and its Muslim minority will be different than OTL. On one hand there may be even more hostility towards Arabs in general given a protracted struggle in Algeria with battles on the borders. But on the other hand it's also quite possible that the harkis/loyalists in Algeria will just become a part of the French national fabric and become accepted as such. The fact that other Arabs will likely perceive the harkis and loyalists as traitors is bound to bring them and the French together eventually and if France doesn't screw up.

Another consequence of a partition is that North Africa will be way more unstable than OTL and terrorism may become a problem earlier than OTL.

I have serious doubts about the logistical abilities of the French to keep hold of the Sahara territories. IMO it's more likely that it'll be given up to Free Algeria while the French retain a coastal platform.

 

[Wendell]

Building Berber buffer states might have helped.

 

[Dunois]

The pied noirs aren't going to accept political and economic equality with the harkis, especially if the harkis are 50%+ of the population (a share which will only continue to grow due to TFR disparities). Likewise, the harkis will not accept being even second class citizens.

You would be surprised at what could happen here. The OAS was in favour of political equality between the pied-noirs and the harkis. What's more there was de facto political equality in Algeria since the beginning of the 5th Republic in 1958, all Algerians were eligible to vote in the constitutional referendum and could elect up to 50 representatives in the Assemblée Nationale.
If pied-noirs have to choose between a partitioned Algeria with equality with loyalists and no French Algeria at all. They'll most likely choose the former over the latter given their attachment to the land. We must also remember that a lot of pied-noirs, had a lower standard of living than metropolitan French and were mostly lower middle class with only a few rich colons. There wasn't a large local economic élite as most of key economic decisions were made in Paris at the time, be it by the government or major French companies.

I have serious doubts about the logistical abilities of the French to keep hold of the Sahara territories. IMO it's more likely that it'll be given up to Free Algeria while the French retain a coastal platform.

Giving up the Sahara territories means giving up the key strategic raison d'être of why France should hold onto Algeria. It means giving up the nuclear testing sites, the rocket launching site and all the oil and gas resources. The corridor shown on the map I added already contains the gas pipeline, a new oil pipeline can always be reconstructed. It also contains road links to the Saharan desert. A lot of the logistics was also done by plane too.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Limiting the numbers will collapse the economy (not to mention the cost of constantly having to recruit and transport new workers).

Obviously the numbers would be limited to an amount that can allow the economy to function. Just not a ‘dangerous’ amount that threatens Pied Noir safety (in their view, of course).

Those restrictions will also make work in partitioned Algeria less attractive, which means France has to spend more.

Wages will be an attraction all of their own. Plenty of nations have restrictive conditions for ‘guest workers’ and seem to do fine when it comes to finding applicants to fill vacancies. As long as they pay more than the sub-Saharan nations the workers are coming from, the workers will come.

 

[Hertog Jann]

A population exchange would make the French strip economically unviable (somebody has to do all those low paying jobs that the Algerians did).

Well, Spanish and Italian peasants were a known quantity among the European settlers in Algeria since the 19th century. Until the 1970s, both countries had high rates of immigration. Perhaps the french part may attract as well impoverished people from the Balkans (Yugoslavs, Greeks) that were immigrating en masse to West Germany, Austria, Australia etc. All of these people are accustomed to the climate more or less. I doubt a coal mine in Germany would be that much more attractive than working as a worker or farmhand in Oran.

 

[GauchoBadger]

Giving up the Sahara territories means giving up the key strategic raison d'être of why France should hold onto Algeria. It means giving up the nuclear testing sites, the rocket launching site and all the oil and gas resources. The corridor shown on the map I added already contains the gas pipeline, a new oil pipeline can always be reconstructed. It also contains road links to the Saharan desert. A lot of the logistics was also done by plane too.

French Algeria depending on a single corridor for pipelines creates a logistical bottleneck, though, which can be cut off by terrorism and sabotage as would likely be sponsored by rump Free Algeria. Another problem would involve occupying the Saharan territories militarily and fending off potential insurgent groups operating deep within the desert.

 

[Dunois]

French Algeria depending on a single corridor for pipelines creates a logistical bottleneck, though, which can be cut off by terrorism and sabotage as would likely be sponsored by rump Free Algeria. Another problem would involve occupying the Saharan territories militarily and fending off potential insurgent groups operating deep within the desert.

The corridor on the map I shown is almost 70km large so wide enough for plenty of infrastructure and wide enough to provide strategic depth.
If France also goes "all in" with investing in the Sahara, there's also always scope of improving infrastructure towards the Niger valley and the coast as well. There won't be trans-saharan railways but there'll definitely be paved trans-saharan highways.

Insurgents will become a constant thorn on the side of France, this I completely agree. So expect the Foreign Legion of TTL to be larger than OTL (it took a big hit post Algerian war) and remain a force focused on patrolling the desert and likely lavishly equipped with helicopters, air support and other means of establishing ground control.

TTL France will be more militarised than OTL but may be somewhat more focused in how it spends its money on advanced armament like nuclear missiles etc. In short no Gaullist attempt to create a fully French nuclear-triad with missile silos in southern France but more money spent on the Foreign Legion and conventional forces.