Freidmans book Next 100 years - agree - disagree

trajen777

Banned
On business in Japan from USA this week (come here 1 / month) and had a long discusion with a partner from the royal family (way way down the list) but anyway we were talking about the book
The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

By George Friedman


http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...DD0S157T6U.DTL

Anyway the point of the book (good by the way)
North America piviot of the world postioned as controler of seas and center between Atlantic and Pacfic trade with no NA enemies
1. US - Jidhadist war over (failed in attempt to unite Muslim world)
1a. China implosion (stopped by southern china on way here and the factories and unemployment is massive plus the growing haves vs have nots is creating major regional pressures)
2. Russia - West in new cold war Russia collapse(declineing population)
3. Major war with US + eastern europe vs Japan + Turkey + Germany + France (USA permits no challenging regional powers and Japan must control its seas because of a lack fo natural resources
4. By 2050 USA golden age
5. Emerging Mexico by 2100


like i said a good book -- My partner sees Chiana imploding - and a growing tension over the next xxx years with USA --- many in Japan see themselves as almost being controled as the 51st state

Anyway wanted to get some other thoughts ??
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I flipped through this in a bookstore a while back. While interesting, I couldn't help but think while reading it that if someone posted it as a FH scenario here, it would get torn to shreds.
 
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I think it's silly. It takes early 20th century politics and applies them to present day. The USA going to war over Western Europe because we don't want a rival? No. Japan going to war for the same reason as WWII? I don't think so. The economies of the world are too interwind, and even culturally, for two first world nations to fight each other, you'd need a HUGE casus beli, more than just "ME WANT LAND NOW!"
 

trajen777

Banned
I found the book intresting in many ways - not sure i buy much of it myself but there are some good points in it - i agree with the demographics arguments - and some of the nationalist future needs - as to the world being to economically intertwined for war I have always and will always believe that there is maybe one politition in the history of the world who is a business person. Business is mostly an afterthought to decisions
 
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