Free Istanbul, 2101 AD

I'm working on a timeline where the Treaty of London is maintained. Armenia gets a big chunk of Turkey, from Alexandretta and the Taurus to the Black Sea (not including Trabzon) and bordering Kurdistan.

In this timeline, Istanbul was made a Free City, which had been on the talks for a while. Kinda like Danzig. It was supposed to be a compromise between Russia's aspirations to the city and the other countries' attempts at land-grabbing. In the end, the general consensus, influenced by Wilson's points, was that Turkey could be reasoned with (and bought, too).

Time goes on and the status of Istanbul is maintained. Bordering Greece, Bulgaria, Turkey and a small portion of the northern Bosphorus belonging to Russia, the Free Straits, or "the City" as it's usually known as, is an oddity of older times, a fossile of the League of Nations (which survives to this day, albeit almost honorific in nature). Invaded twice but restituted again, it found footing with the tension between Communist Eastern Europe and the Capitalist West, being a hub for spies, bootleggers and smugglers, as well as diplomats, merchants and scientists.

Regardless of all this, I find myself a bit hard pressed believing this could work (let alone prosper) in this troubled area. What is needed for a Free Istanbul to be a reality and survive?

Thanks!
 
One idea I've heard is it becomes a rub of White Russian activity and exiles from the USSR, serving as a nice population base not loyal to Turkey, Greece or Bulgaria.
 
Just keep in mind that some Great Power must be actively defending it from Turkish and Russian aggression. It may be overrun before/during WWII if it occurs and then restored to independence afterward as well
 
I guess France and Britain would sign a pact similar to that they signed over Belgium, right? Russia would get warm water ports along the Dardanelles (as would all other great powers, even the US), and free enty into the Straits Free Area (the whole point of it is to be a neutral power).

Can Babylon 5 exist in Istanbul in 1920? Can it exist in 1945? Can it exist in 2101?

I think that Greece might object, but they've given the lion's share of Ionia, so they're quite happy and there's no need for a Turko-Greek war, unless the Turks start it. And they may, Atatürk is still influential. After all, the carving of Ottoman land was none of his doing. But with British, French, Russian, US and Italian ports (and maybe even Japanese) in the Bosporus area and with vested interest in there, I don't see Turkey doing anything realistically. I do see them as a clear ally of Hitler in WW2, which won't be butterflied away just because Turkey is weaker and smaller. Besides, Turkey also has powerful neighbours now, a vast Armenia (from the Taurus and Adana up to modern Armenia) and Kurdistan (yay!), who may be ready to invade themselves. Atatürk will probably focus his attention there and maybe even regain some of the land the Turks have lost (Erzurum, Trabzon, maybe even the bay of Alexandretta).

The City will be invaded in WW2 for sure, by an Axis-alligned Turkey or by Germany straight away. Maybe Italy might see that area as within its own sphere of influence, but an Allied victory might see the Free Straits Area restituted to its neutral state, maybe even given sovereign state recognition.

As for it becoming a hub for White Russians... all I can say is: delicious.
 
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