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Scenario is as such: Stalin is more paranoid about Germany, makes a neutrality pact with Japan sooner after their defeat in the East. Japan doesn't bother joining Axis (to be honest you almost don't need a POD to do this since it was little more than a whim). Everything else as OTL

Since Japan isn't in the Axis, Catroux (and the British) feels safer ignoring Vichy France when they demand his resignation and declares for Free France after accepting Japanese request to close the border. [Will Decroux and the French Far East Fleet join him? What about French Pacific possessions elsewhere?] However Japan continues ramping up as OTL (imagine the Japenese government falls as OTL) and asks for use of airfields and to station troops.

Possibilities:

"On 3 September, after learning of the Franco-Japanese agreement of 30 August, Wellington Koo, the Chinese Ambassador in Paris, visited Charles-Rouxand warned of the grave nature of the French act and offered Chinese troops to aid in the defence of Indochina. The offer was reviewed by the Council of Ministers on 14 September."

Would Catroux join China? If he accepts their offer will that cause the USA and Britain to get involved? You can assume that Catroux would not be able to delay the negotiations as long since he can't say he needs to talk to Vichy. Unlike Decous Catroux also did not want war he was in favour of accepting agreements, hence why he accepted the first one.

Alternatively he could accept their agreement and then what? Japan focuses on China? Never attacks DEI? Never gets the USA involved? Will the USA still embargo oil/steel/iron if there is never an attack?

Perhaps, unlikely since he agreed to begin with, he delays until they invade then attempts to fight?

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Will the Thai still attack and invade Indochina? Will Britain and France declare war on them in response? Do we see the Japanese assisting them perhaps in order to win goodwill (and more importantly secure a base closer to DEI)?
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