Frederick William IV accepts a crown, the Great War happens earlier?

[Velkas]

I just had a bunch of ideas for a alternate history scenario.

Basically, the POD is in 1848, where the Frankfurt Parliament offer the crown (earlier) to a Frederick William who accepts it partially out of fear of revolutionary power, and partially because this Frederick William sees it as an opportunity to unite Germany under his rule. In the same year, Hungary and Italy have their own revolutions. Not sure what to do with Italy, but Hungary is forcefully brought back under Austrian control (with Russian support). However, the Hungarians are very resentful of this, and still seek to break away from Hapsburg rule. Austria survives the wave of revolutions, but is severely weakened by them, relying on Russia for support, and fears the newly united Germany.

It's this weakened Austria that sparks off the Great War, a few decades later (I'm thinking the 1890s). But (and here's the fun part), this Great War also involves the Scramble for Africa (as European powers fight for control of Africa) and the Great Game (as Russia and Britain fight for influence in Asia). I might throw in a surviving CSA as well (due to it having been recognized and supported by France and/or Britain in the ACW).

Also, I'll try to throw some steampunk technology into this Great War. Tanks, Zeppelins, and so on. Might be somewhat ASB-ish, but that only serves to make it more interesting.

The idea is still in its infancy, and I'm by no means an expert on the period, but how does it sound? Any thoughts or ideas?

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

If Germany unites is 1848 then Napoleon (III) can have no hope that the Southern German States will join him against Prussia. Germany will also be stronger.

But there are many other factors to consider for the years between 48-90(?).

Only in 1866 Austria "left" Germany - what happens to it when its forced out in 1848?

If Germany gets stronger then Rusia might not support austria as IOTL as the balance of power is just disrupted.

A-H might split in 2+ nations in 1948 (Austria even staying in Germany - no war of 1866)

Italian Revolution sucessful if Austria is unable to react (Battle of Novara lost or not fought)

You have tio fill a gap before you go to a great war if the POD is in 1848...

 

[Georgie Porgie]

I don't know where Britain would stand in the war with a unitied Germany or against.
Victotia would have only been on the throne for 11 years and her uncle was still King of Hanover. We had yet to have the Crimean War (would this be butterflied by a Unitied Germany as France worried more about Germany than Russia?)

A war that saw a Unitied Germany join the UK against the eastern powers of Austria and Russia to support Hungurian freedom is possible.

 

[Barbarossa Rotbart]

It would change only little for Austria. They will loose their influence in southern Germany but they will concentrate on their own empire. The transformation of Austria into Austria-Hungary will still happen. And even if the Danube monarchy splits Austria will never join a Germany ruled by a Hohenzollern!

But a successful Revolution of 1848 would have a big impact for the US, because many Germans who emigrated to America in OTL will not in TTL.

Also the Prussian militarism will never dominate German politics, because Prussia is still a lot smaller (Hanover, Hesse-Kassel, Nassau, Frankfurt, Holstein etc. would not be annexed by Prussia) and the Emperor of the Germans would have had no real political power.
Thus many reasons for the Great War would not exist.

 

[Xgentis]

France will still own Alsace-Lorraine there is no reason to go to war.

 

[wolf_brother]

ITT; everyone ignores butterflies.

 

[Barbarossa Rotbart]

Without Bismarck and his isolation of France, the occupation of Alsace-Lorraine and the naval policy of Wilhelm II there will be no Great War.

A PoD which turns Germany into a parliamentary monarchy (= constitution of 1848) will butterfly both world wars away!

 

[Imladrik]

Without Bismarck and his isolation of France, the occupation of Alsace-Lorraine and the naval policy of Wilhelm II there will be no Great War.

A PoD which turns Germany into a parliamentary monarchy (= constitution of 1848) will butterfly both world wars away!

I think the OP want to have a great war in 1890 with a POD in 1848. Maybe cliché, but it may be possible (after 30 years you can almost write anything you want anyway).

But one thing is almost certain : apart from colonial differences, i don't see France going to war with anyone ITTL. France won't like a powerful Germany at her doors, but as long as Germany don't try to get A-L, there will be no war. And i don't see a federal Germany trying to get another state (A-L) into the union as it would upset the internal power balance after a war (and no sympathy in those territories).

The only possibility for France to be involved is if it start the war by attacking Belgium, but 1890 is a little late for that.

 

[Eurofed]

As someone else said, there are plenty of butterflies.

First and foremost, it is far from likely that if liberal Germany indeed forms in 1848, the Habsburg shall be able to prevent Austria from being pulled into it, despite their best efforts.

The Habsburg house of cards came very close to collapse in 1848, and the added drive successful formation of Germany could give to Austro-German liberal-nationalists may well be the straw that breaks the back of the Habsburg camel.

If the Habsburg empire comes down, we would see the formation of a 'CP' liberal bloc of Germany, Hungary, and Italy in Central Europe, Tsarist Russia would be its natural enemy. The alignment of France would vary according to its political course: the more liberal it stays, the more likely it is to stay friendly to the liberal 'CP' bloc, and vice-versa. Nonetheless, France may get suspicious of a new powerful Germany on its border, but it is unlikely to make a pre-emptive attack.

If it ever happens, it would happen some decades down the line, out of tensions arising from colonial rivalries and the like (if Germany and Italy unify in 1848, they shall be stronger than OTL and much more able to take part in the colonial race).

Britain may easily be sympathetic to a liberal Germany and see it as a useful tool to contain Russia.

So the most likely conflict in this scenario is a clash between a liberal Germany and allies, possibly backed by Britain/Turkey/Sweden, and Russia, with liberation/control of Poland/the Baltics/Finland at stake.

It would be an "Eastern War", a broad equivalent of the Crimean war, with the alignment of France depednent on butterflies.

If however, we assume that the Habsburg empire is somehow able to keep itself together despite the formation of Germany, in all likelihood it only happens thanks to Russian bayonets, and Austria loses Italy altogether one way or another.

This would make Austria a client of Russia; in all likelihood the Ausgleich becomes unfeasible in these conditions, as any serious devolution or liberal reform risks to tear the empire apart from the twin centrifugal forces of liberal Pangermanists and Hungarian nationalists. It would be an unstable reactionary construction, kept together by Russian support.

So the natural bloc alignment becomes liberal Germany-Italy vs. reactionary Russia-Austria, with the liberal bloc eagerly fueling national unrest in both empires. Britain could easily align with the liberal bloc. For France, again, it depends on political butterflies.

 

[Razgriz 2K9]

Chances are, we'll go for UK/Germany vs. Russia...

Austria could very well survive its independence, but as stated would be trapped between a rock (Hungarian nationalists) and a hard place (Pan-German Nationalists in Austria and Bohemia). A much stronger 1848 revolution, especially one that would lead to a Liberal German Empire, would mean that Russia would probably be dragged down too deep into a war that they most likely would not win. A German Unification would also lead to an Italian unification scenario.

Now, the wild cards here are France for the same reason Eurofed mentioned before...but I think Hungary and Italy could also fall here, the reason is because of Italian irredentism.

Italy in a 1848 scenario would still have claims to Dalmatia and Istria, which would be held by Hungary, or by Hungary and Germany respectively. Now should Italy be crazy enough to want these territories that badly, (which would be questionable at best) it could see itself as part an alliance with Russia.

 

[Eurofed]

Italy in a 1848 scenario would still have claims to Dalmatia and Istria, which would be held by Hungary, or by Hungary and Germany respectively. Now should Italy be crazy enough to want these territories that badly, (which would be questionable at best) it could see itself as part an alliance with Russia.

Only if Germany is adamant about owning Trento and Istria at all costs (not that likely; they were not German lands, and rather peripheral for Germany's interests in Central Europe).

Otherwise, Hungary is not any likely to be interested in owning Istria: it was not a traditional Hungarian-Croat land and as a rule the Magyars showed a definite lack of interest for lands outside their traditional sphere of influence. At best, they would want Fiume.

As it concerns Italy, if it can have Trento and Istria from the beginning, it is not going to make much of a fuss about Dalmatia (and Fiume) if Germany and Hungary can otherwise be good neighbors/allies.

Provided all sides show a modicum of common sense and restraint about the division of the Habsburg spoils, a successful 1848 may easily lay the basis for a successful and stable partnership between Germany, Italy, and Hungary.

 

[Razgriz 2K9]

Only if Germany is adamant about owning Trento and Istria at all costs (not that likely; they were not German lands, and rather peripheral for Germany's interests in Central Europe).

Otherwise, Hungary is not any likely to be interested in owning Istria: it was not a traditional Hungarian-Croat land and as a rule the Magyars showed a definite lack of interest for lands outside their traditional sphere of influence. At best, they would want Fiume.

As it concerns Italy, if it can have Trento and Istria from the beginning, it is not going to make much of a fuss about Dalmatia (and Fiume) if Germany and Hungary can otherwise be good neighbors/allies.

Provided all sides show a modicum of common sense and restraint about the division of the Habsburg spoils, a successful 1848 may easily lay the basis for a successful and stable partnership between Germany, Italy, and Hungary.

And thus leave Russia forever alone in a liberal Europe...If that happens, it'll mean either Russia must liberalize or face isolation...

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Or Russia could keep their reactionary or hostile attitude towards liberal Europe by reforming a la Meiji Japan style, though that would have looked weird. Russia doesn't have enough intellectuals to push for liberalization, so probably a Japanese-style modernization without Westernization would have been appealing to a conservative Russian Empire.

 

[Eurofed]

And thus leave Russia forever alone in a liberal Europe...If that happens, it'll mean either Russia must liberalize or face isolation...

Well, if need be, Russia can always invert usual diplomatic relationships and form an alliance of reactionary powers with Turkey. Not the best ally in the world, but better than nothing, if alone in a liberal Europe.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Well, since we're talking about an alliance of reactionary powers, Russia could also extend an alliance to let's say, Japan and Korea since they're also reactionary. China on the other hand, well the Russians would want Xinjiang and Mongolia so it won't work.

 

[Razgriz 2K9]

Why would Russia ally with Japan and Korea? Well...Japan I kind of understand, since they would see through a Meiji Restoration, but Korea had been a target for the Japanese for the longest while. Russia would have to choose between Japan and Korea...and choosing Korea would probably end in an earlier Russo-Japanese War.

 

[Eurofed]

A compact of Russia, Turkey, and Japan undergoing authoritarian modernization vs. a liberal post-1848 Europe ?

Now that would make for an easy West-East opposition dynamic. Expect European liberals to wax poetic about the "Eastern peril", "Asiatic hordes in service to blood-soaked despotism", and so on.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Why I said Korea was that Russia would need more allies down the road and Korea would be best served as a buffer zone between Russia and Japan, though if the Russians would find a way to soothe the rough tensions between Korea and Japan, then they'll be content with allowing the Japanese to annex Korea . Turkey on the other hand, Russia would have to give up plans for capturing Constantinople and there's also the issue of Orthodox Christians in the Balkans.

 

[Eurofed]

Turkey on the other hand, Russia would have to give up plans for capturing Constantinople and there's also the issue of Orthodox Christians in the Balkans.

Beggars can't be choosers. If Russia is starved for allies in a liberal Europe, it must accept being nice to Turkey.

The only foreseeable alternative is to hope and pray the political pendulum of France swings to authoritarianism again (not that easy, with a successful '48) and/or it picks a feud with Britain/Germany/Italy over colonial stuff.

 

[Razgriz 2K9]

There is also the alternative in Persia should Turkey be a dissapointment. Russia did have influence there...the disadvantage was that Persia is not as modernized as Japan or Turkey is, perhaps Russia could help in modernizing it while keeping a reactionary form of government.

Also the matter of a scenario like this would mean, Russia would be more inclined to keep Alaska, would they?