Frederick the Great allied with Maria Theresa

[OS fan]

Before the wars of Austrian Succession started, Frederick had offered Maria Theresa an alliance, demanding Silesia (at least, Lower Silesia) as a price. As we know, she declined. But what if she had accepted? Since Prussia had the best army of Europe at this time, the advantage would have been on Austria's side. The war may end sooner (if it starts at all), Austria may receive areas lost in Belgium at the expense of France and in Italy at that of Spain. Also, Lorraine may return to emperor Stephan. And Britain may expand its colonial empire a bit earlier.

Of course, there is the question which parts of Spanish Italy would go to Austria. All of Naples-Sicily would be too much, but splitting up the kingdom wouldn't really make sense, since it'd be indefensible for Austria.

Also, I wonder whether Prussia might take parts of Julich-Berg, at this time owned by the Wittelsbach dynasty. Or whether Austria would expand into Bavaria, or Prussia into Saxony.

All in all, the Prussian-Austrian coalition may gain a slight overweight in Germany and Italy, being able to topple the balance in a later war.

 

[Monty Burns]

It depends on what war start right now. IOTL, Saxony and Bavaria wanted war against Austria based on dynastic claims. ITTL, with Prussia on the Austrian side, Wittelsbach and Wettin lands will be redistributed.

Just to set out some rather maxed out gains: Saxony becomes part of Prussia, as does West Prussia (from Poland, ruled by a Saxon king). Austria gets Galicia and Bavaria. Prussia gives Ansbach and Bayreuth to Austria and gains Julich and Berg. As a result, you'D have a Germany that is much more dominated by Austria and Prussia and both hold territories much deeper in Germany than IOTL. Also, the politics vs. Poland may change completely ITTL.

 

[OS fan]

You couldn't give all of Saxony to Prussia, or Bavaria to Austria. This was still the age of absolutism - kings who wanted to expand needed a claim (which Prussia had on Silesia, so this is possible), or the country in question had to be without a leader, like Tuscany which went to Stephan, husband of Maria Theresa.

But annexing a whole country with a king who was as legitimate as the attacker, without a better reason than "we want to expand"? This would be a severe break of protocol. After all, if Prussia could topple the legitimate Saxon king (one example), in the next war someone could decide to remove Prussia from the map.

 

[DanF]

You couldn't give all of Saxony to Prussia, or Bavaria to Austria. This was still the age of absolutism - kings who wanted to expand needed a claim (which Prussia had on Silesia, so this is possible), or the country in question had to be without a leader, like Tuscany which went to Stephan, husband of Maria Theresa.

But annexing a whole country with a king who was as legitimate as the attacker, without a better reason than "we want to expand"? This would be a severe break of protocol. After all, if Prussia could topple the legitimate Saxon king (one example), in the next war someone could decide to remove Prussia from the map.

You could probably give the two Lustatia (Upper & Lower) lands to Prussia using the similar claim to Silesia. Also, the Habsburg can say since they gave them to Saxony (during 30 years war) they can always claim to now give them to Prussia.

Since Charles Albert rejected the Pragmatic Sanction (which he signed) taking Bavaria from him is claim enough. The downside is you really have to give him or his heir Maximilian III Joseph (he dies in 1745 and could be killed or jailed sooner if captured by the Austrians) something else to rule. Since the Wittlesbachs are too important of a family within the HRE.

You could carve the Duchy of Luxembourg (which was much bigger at this time than it is now) out of the Austrian Netherlands, as Bavaria was only a Duchy until it was elevated to an Electorate, and give Maximilian III Joseph that. The downside is the Wittlesbach already controlled most of the North Western corner of the HRE, so you just made them even stronger there. Wittlesbach had at this time: Cologne (Archbishop), Palatine, Berg (mentioned above as possible passing to Prussia), Jurch (mentioned above as possible passing to Prussia), Liege (Bishop), Munster (Clemens August also was Archbishop of Cologne), and Zweibrucken. However, it would be interesting to see how they would react to Napolean compared to OTL when all there lands are next too or overrun by the French.

The next question is the Elector vote, do you give it to an ally or just drop it and go back to 8 Electors.

 

[OS fan]

You have some good points. Lusatia becoming Prussian, especially.

The Wittelsbachs may well lose one electoral vote, especially when one of their lines would die out as in our world.

Jülich-Berg already was united with the Palatinate at this time, so Prussia may indeed get the former.

Of course, Maria Theresa should be wise enough to keep Prussia in check - especially when Friedrich proves his capability as a commander in the war.

Someone might suggest the plan to exchange Belgium for Bavaria earlier than in our world, and the Wittelsbachs wouldn't be in the position to decline. An interesting possibility would be this: The kingdom of the Sicilies goes to the Bavarian Karl Albrecht.

Now we have to think about what Britain would demand in a peace.

 

[DanF]

You have some good points. Lusatia becoming Prussian, especially.

The Wittelsbachs may well lose one electoral vote, especially when one of their lines would die out as in our world.

Jülich-Berg already was united with the Palatinate at this time, so Prussia may indeed get the former.

Of course, Maria Theresa should be wise enough to keep Prussia in check - especially when Friedrich proves his capability as a commander in the war.

Someone might suggest the plan to exchange Belgium for Bavaria earlier than in our world, and the Wittelsbachs wouldn't be in the position to decline. An interesting possibility would be this: The kingdom of the Sicilies goes to the Bavarian Karl Albrecht.

Now we have to think about what Britain would demand in a peace.

A swap of Bavaria for the Austrian Netherlands is not really a fair trade unless the Habsburgs are desperate. The Austrian Netherlands had more manpower and were much richer. That is why I was suggesting something like carving off just the Duchy of Luxembourg.

I forgot Julich-Berg was united with the Palatinate, OTL Palatinate never fell to Austria. In this timeline it might, but I would think such a move would not go over well in the HRE in having one's "whole family" suffer loss of land. Also, like you mentioned strengthening Prussia even more is not really in the best interest of Austria.

In regards to Naples and Sicily, Charles VII & V (cause the 2 Kingdoms had a different number of Charles rulers) really did not want to fight. He essentially was forced into it by his Dad (King Philip V of Spain). So, Naples sort of tried to stay out of the conflict and sent only a few thousand forces to help Spain in the Po Valley. Real fighting did not happen until 1744 when Prince Georg Christian Lobkowitz marched on Naples. Initially he was successful and managed to capture most of Charles VII & V entourage, but he lost the battle of Velletri and had to retreat back north. I bring this up cause if Prussia fought for Austria then Austria might of been able to spare more troops for the Italian theater (Austria only had 10,000 men at Velletri). This could of driven Charles VII & V out of Naples. Naples even had a large enough pro-Hapsburg party that Charles VII & V had to re-organize his government and arrest more than 800 folks.

If Austria can hold Naples (which is doable, though taking Sicily would be tough especially with the British Fleet busy with Spain & France) then you would have another option to send Maximilian III Joseph. Frankly, even though it kicks them out of the HRE they really could not refuse cause Naples is a Kingdom so it is a promotion. Also, the Spanish would still have Sicily so they cannot complain too much. Basically, it is like your suggestion, but it is at a smaller scale. This makes it easier to pull off cause taking Sicily would be very tough for Austria and Sardinia without lots of British help. However, the British fleet was busy fighting the Spanish and French already.

If Austria does better in Italy then she probably would not surrender Parma to Spain. In fact Sardinia might even get Genoa (who fell to Austria OTL, but was resorted during the peace). Austria also took over Modena OTL, but that was really to keep from siding with Spain. So, it would most likely be restored to Este family for nothing.

Britain would want Louisbourg, which fell to them OTL. France also would have to recognize Hanoverian succession, and expel Jacobite rebels like they did OTL. Also, France took Madras in India OTL and returned it OTL. They might ask for an even better trading deal with Spain then just the keeping the Asiento contract in force.

The major issue with British peace goals is France did so well in the Austrian & Dutch Netherlands. A lot of British demands would really depend upon how well Austria with Prussian aid would do in the Austrian & Dutch Netherlands. OTL France just rocked through the entire area (Marshal Saxe made his name here), so in order for Britain to get a better peace France needs to do worse in both Netherlands. If the American colonies do get to keep Louisbourg then, it might have some effects on the American Revolution. The American colonies felt cheated when Britain gave back Louisbourg to the French. King George II definitely favored Hanover goals over British goals OTL, when they made peace with France, which angered a lot of folks.

 

[kasumigenx]

Before the wars of Austrian Succession started, Frederick had offered Maria Theresa an alliance, demanding Silesia (at least, Lower Silesia) as a price. As we know, she declined. But what if she had accepted? Since Prussia had the best army of Europe at this time, the advantage would have been on Austria's side. The war may end sooner (if it starts at all), Austria may receive areas lost in Belgium at the expense of France and in Italy at that of Spain. Also, Lorraine may return to emperor Stephan. And Britain may expand its colonial empire a bit earlier.

Of course, there is the question which parts of Spanish Italy would go to Austria. All of Naples-Sicily would be too much, but splitting up the kingdom wouldn't really make sense, since it'd be indefensible for Austria.

Also, I wonder whether Prussia might take parts of Julich-Berg, at this time owned by the Wittelsbach dynasty. Or whether Austria would expand into Bavaria, or Prussia into Saxony.

All in all, the Prussian-Austrian coalition may gain a slight overweight in Germany and Italy, being able to topple the balance in a later war.

I think Maria Theresa can gain Krakovia and Czestochowa in the Polish Partitions earlier but not under the Kingdom of Galicia, she can integrate it to the Kingdom of Bohemia.

 

[OS fan]

A lot of points to ponder. But let us tackle them.

True, as Poland was in union with Saxony, both Prussia and Austria could gain spoils from this side either. Although Cracow might be too much of a prize, given that it is the old capital of Poland. And Maria Theresa was not fond of the first dividing of Poland either. Frederick certainly would be interested in western Prussia - which, however, is Poland's only connection to the sea, so this is doubtful either. So, not at this time.

Austria would want to keep the Netherlands, that's also true. After having to give most of Silesia to Prussia, they cannot afford to give up another rich province.

Naples Austrian, Sicily under the Bourbon Charles? An interesting solution. Of course, together with Parma, Tuscany and Milan, this would give Austria an overly strong position in Italy. Though this has happened only a few decades before.

Luxembourg independent... also a possibility. Now the Wittelsbach dynasty indeed had a tradition of occupying the archbishop offices of Cologne and other places in western Germany, but this at least could change, especially after this family tried to take the emperor's crown for one of them.

De Saxe indeed did great in Belgium - in our history. In this hypothetical war however, he might have to fight an even greater commander, Frederick himself.

Furthermore I think that emperor Stephen would prefer to get Lorraine back. If Alsace also went to Austria, these lands would form a cordon sanitaire against France. Good for the Holy Roman Empire, but also a big responsibility for Austria.

Finally, the Wittelsbachs may be punished by losing the Rhine Palatinate to Austria. This would further strengthen Austria's position in the west.

Also, I wonder whether Sweden would join France, as in our world. In this case, Prussia may use the opportunity to gain the rest of Pomerania. Which is a reason Sweden may prefer to stay neutral.

And what would Russia do? Would they also join Austria's side? Then France would be in a very dire situation.

However, there is this problem: In 1740, the Prussian army wasn't yet as famous as it would become. The last war they fought in had been the Polish war of Succession, which was recently, but they only sent a minor contingent. Austria still considered Prussia a minor German state.

So unless Austria was in a really dire situation, they would not want a costly alliance with Prussia. Such a situation might emerge if Charles of Bavaria attacked first, maybe.

But then, Frederick wanted Silesia, attacked first, and his easy successes made everyone else join the war.

 

[Monty Burns]

A lot of points to ponder. But let us tackle them.

True, as Poland was in union with Saxony, both Prussia and Austria could gain spoils from this side either. Although Cracow might be too much of a prize, given that it is the old capital of Poland. And Maria Theresa was not fond of the first dividing of Poland either. Frederick certainly would be interested in western Prussia - which, however, is Poland's only connection to the sea, so this is doubtful either. So, not at this time.

Technically, the commonwealth would still have access to the sea by Lithuania. In any case, the point is loosing the mouth of the Vistula. If Prussia and Austria fight Saxony-Poland, Prussia will definitely go for West Prussia. In case of Austria you're right that Cracow is quite a bit - that's only possible if Prussia and Austria are also allied with Russia and strike a tremendous victory.

Austria would want to keep the Netherlands, that's also true. After having to give most of Silesia to Prussia, they cannot afford to give up another rich province.

But the Austrian Netherlands were very unruly and each war with France saw them occupied/looted. There's a reason why Austria was willing to exchange them IOTL against territories that weren't that important.

In any case, if the Austrians win they wouldn't have to give up anything - they may only exchange. Question is then whether Austria wants to consolidate the Netherlands (Palatinate, Julich, Kleve and Berg could be annexed, allowing Austria to dominate the lower Rhine), re-expand in France (Alsace), expand in Bavaria (most likely IMHO) or in Poland.

For Prussia, it's all about West Prussia and Saxony. It might be that the Prussians give up some of ther Western exclaves in exchange for larger parts of Saxony.

Also, I wonder whether Sweden would join France, as in our world. In this case, Prussia may use the opportunity to gain the rest of Pomerania. Which is a reason Sweden may prefer to stay neutral.

And what would Russia do? Would they also join Austria's side? Then France would be in a very dire situation.

If Sweden and Russia end up on opposite sides, my guess is that they wouldn't add much to the battle fields in Germany.

However, there is this problem: In 1740, the Prussian army wasn't yet as famous as it would become. The last war they fought in had been the Polish war of Succession, which was recently, but they only sent a minor contingent. Austria still considered Prussia a minor German state.

So unless Austria was in a really dire situation, they would not want a costly alliance with Prussia. Such a situation might emerge if Charles of Bavaria attacked first, maybe.

But then, Frederick wanted Silesia, attacked first, and his easy successes made everyone else join the war.

What about the first Silesian war going sa IOTL, but then Prussia switches sides and together with Austria goes against Bavaria and Saxony?

 

[OS fan]

If Prussia and Austria fight Saxony-Poland, Prussia will definitely go for West Prussia. In case of Austria you're right that Cracow is quite a bit - that's only possible if Prussia and Austria are also allied with Russia and strike a tremendous victory.

However, in our world Saxony-Poland fought against Austria first and against Prussia later, and did not lose any territory. I don't know about the reasons, though.

But the Austrian Netherlands were very unruly and each war with France saw them occupied/looted. There's a reason why Austria was willing to exchange them IOTL against territories that weren't that important.

True - but still, giving up two major provinces (after a war that was won!) seems odd to me.

In any case, if the Austrians win they wouldn't have to give up anything - they may only exchange. Question is then whether Austria wants to consolidate the Netherlands (Palatinate, Julich, Kleve and Berg could be annexed, allowing Austria to dominate the lower Rhine), re-expand in France (Alsace), expand in Bavaria (most likely IMHO) or in Poland.

It was Prussia who had a claim on Jülich-Berg, not Austria. So or so, Austria will demand something in exchange for Silesia. Naples would be bigger on the map, but not exactly richer.

For Prussia, it's all about West Prussia and Saxony. It might be that the Prussians give up some of ther Western exclaves in exchange for larger parts of Saxony.

But to whom? - In the long run, it would be an unwise move, given how important the Ruhr area will become later.

If Sweden and Russia end up on opposite sides, my guess is that they wouldn't add much to the battle fields in Germany.

They already made war with each other in our world, which ended in 1743.

What about the first Silesian war going sa IOTL, but then Prussia switches sides and together with Austria goes against Bavaria and Saxony?

This is not what I had in mind, although it is worth a thought.

 

[OS fan]

My idea for the post-war Europe:

France gives up Alsace to Austria

Lorraine also returns to Austria

Saxony-Poland loses parts of Lusatia to Prussia

The Spanish Bourbons lose Naples (but not Sicily) to Austria

The Wittelsbachs lose the Rhine Palatinate to Austria

Austria cedes most of Silesia to Prussia, as the price for an alliance

If Sweden and Russia join the war:

Sweden loses Pomerania to Prussia and parts of Finland to Russia

Poland loses some border areas to Russia

 

[kasumigenx]

My idea for the post-war Europe:

France gives up Alsace to Austria

Lorraine also returns to Austria

Saxony-Poland loses parts of Lusatia to Prussia

The Spanish Bourbons lose Naples (but not Sicily) to Austria

The Wittelsbachs lose the Rhine Palatinate to Austria

Austria cedes most of Silesia to Prussia, as the price for an alliance

If Sweden and Russia join the war:

Sweden loses Pomerania to Prussia and parts of Finland to Russia

Poland loses some border areas to Russia

I think Posen would go to Prussia, because Saxony promised Prussia to give Posen them.

 

[OS fan]

What exactly are you referring to?

Some days ago, I made a map for an alternate peace. Here it is:

 

[DanF]

Cool map.

So, did you kick the Wittelsbach's completely out of the Empire or they just down to Zweibruken and Palatinate on the left bank of the Rhine?

 

[ingemann]

The primary reason that the Hohenzollern turned against the Habsburg, which had been their allies in the early 18th century, was that the Habsburg didn't keep their promise to support the Hohenzollern claim to Berg-Jülich. Let's say that the Habsburg had kept their word. In that case Prussia would likely have been much friendlier, and the Habsburgs could likely have made a agrement with Prussia, that if Saxony-Poland entered into war with Austria, Prussia could receive Royal Prussia and Lusatia. Prussia had a claim to the former, while the later was de jura just pawned from the Kingdom of Bohemia to Saxony.

While this may look like a worse deal for the Prussians, there are some benefits. They would stay friendly with Vienna, they would be able to tax almost the entire Polish export of wheat and they would weaken their traditional competion Saxony.

 

[OS fan]

Dan: The Wittelsbachs keep the Palatinate, and in fact rule Naples (without Sicily). Although I'llsay that I'm not happy with this anymore.

ingemann: This is indeed true and explains Prussia's motivation.

There is also something else to point out: As said, Prussia's strength was quite unknown at this time, and the state was seen as a medium power at best. Adding Silesia would almost double Prussia's population. One has to keep this in mind to understand the motivations of Maria Theresa: From her point of view, Frederick must have appeared as an impertinent upstart. On the other hand, Frederick should have been smart enough to know about the weakness of the Austrian empire, although it still looked great on a map and also had a tradition of being one of the two strongest European powers, together with France. And he was young and ambitious enough to be somewhat impatient. An older Frederick might have waited in 1740 until someone else attacks first - which Bavaria or Saxony might do indeed. The real Frederick, not so much.

So I am not really sure whether this scenario could happen at all.

 

[OS fan]

A thought: In 1740, Maria Theresa was in a dire situation and knew it. She was without money, without an army, young and inexperienced, and even her ministers were not as helpful as she might have wished. And her enemies were getting ready.

So if Frederick had emphasized that he was willing to help her, it might be that he struck a nerve, so she would accept his offer. It still would be a stretch, but it's not completely impossible anymore.

 

[OS fan]

A different thought: Even if Austria accepts Frederick's help, they might still decide to swindle him out of Silesia. Or giving him different territories instead - just as Prussia received Magdeburg and other areas after the Thirty-Year War, as compensation for Hither Pomerania which went to Sweden instead.

And indeed: The northern half of Saxony, Jülich-Berg and maybe parts of Swedish Pomerania might be fair compensation for the part of Silesia that stays with Austria. If in doubt, Austria may well prefer to sacrifice other states instead of its own territory.

Finally, one can expect that there will be a later war quite soon. Just as in our world, the War of Austrian Succession was followed by the Seven-Year War. There are many possible constellations: Both Prussia and Russia could change sides compared to our first hypothetical war. In fact, since in our world the czarina Elisabeth supported Austria after Frederick had insulted her, this might happen here as well.

 

[OS fan]

In case there is a second war, which is rather probable (it could be the equivalent of our Seven-Year War), and the coalition of Prussia, Austria and Britain is victorius again, Austria may gain more territories once lost to France - the Artois, or Franche-Comté maybe.

 

[Darth_Kiryan]

Frederick the Great MARRIES Maria Theresa by Jimbrock