Frederick Houser defeats Sheridan Downey 1944--frustrating Nixon's political career

In 1944, California's Republican Lieutenant Governor, Frederick F. Houser, ran for the US Senate against incumbent Democrat Sheridan Downey, and lost, but by a fairly narrow margin (52.3%-47.7%). http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/u/usa/congress/senate1.txt

Houser's showing was quite respectable, given that FDR defeated Dewey in California that year by 56.5%-43.0%. http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/u/usa/pres/1944.txt

Let's say that Houser had won--perhaps due to Downey getting involved in some sort of scandal. Houser might never make any great mark on the Senate, but his victory would still change history. Why? Because it seems that in that case, Congressman Richard M. Nixon (first elected in 1946) would be stuck in the US House of Representatives for some time.

In OTL, Downey declined to run again in 1950, citing health reasons (his ulcers). Some have argued that this was just an excuse, that he was really afraid of the looming primary challenge by Congresswoman Helen Gahagan Douglas. Of course, the two explanations are not incompatible; Downey may have felt that his health would be endangered by having to fight *two* difficult races, a primary against Douglas and a general election against Nixon. In any event, Douglas, as we all know, went on to win the Democratic primary and to be defeated by Nixon in the general election.

Now if Houser had won in 1944, it is hard for me to see Nixon or anyone else challenging him in the Republican primary in 1950. In general, incumbent senators did not face serious primary challenges in those days, at least outside the South, where a primary challenge was the only kind of challenge that could be effectively mounted. (Downey was an exception, but he had become much too conservative for many California Democrats, whereas Houser, so far as I know, does not seem to have been ideologically offensive to any great number of California Republicans.)

And if Nixon can't run for the Senate in 1950, not only is it unlikely that he becomes Ike's running mate in 1952 (one doesn't normally go to the House for a vice-presidential candidate), but it is hard to see him winning any California statewide office for some time--the most important ones are all held by popular Republicans. The governorship is safely in the hands of Earl Warren and later of Warren's Lieutenant Governor Goodwin Knight (who became Governor when Warren joined the US Supreme Court). The other Senate seat is safely in the hands of William Knowland.

So what does Nixon do? As a young-man-in-a-hurry, he is impatient with the House (which is why in OTL he decided to run for the Senate even before Downey announced his retirement--and Downey would have been much more difficult to beat than Douglas). One possibility of course is that in this ATL Eisenhower chooses Knowland as his running mate, and Nixon runs for Knowland's Senate seat (and presumably wins it, assuming he first wins the GOP primary--1952 being a Republican year in California as well as the rest of the nation). But what if Ike chooses a non-Californian running mate, foreclosing that option? Nixon could presumably run for Lieutenant Governor on Goodwin Knight's ticket in 1954. But after the national publicity he got for the Hiss case, this kind of office may seem a demotion for Nixon. The same thing is true about running for California Attorney General--and in any event, Edmund G. "Pat" Brown is very hard to beat for that office, having won in the face of the 1950 Warren and Nixon landslides, and having again easily won in 1954. (Brown was the only statewide Democratic elected official in California in those days.)

So again, what does Nixon do? Is there any plausible position for him in Ike's Cabinet? Or is he forced to choose between biding his time in the House and (at least temporarily) quitting politics in favor of joining a major LA law firm? It is always dangerous to count Nixon out, of course, but it is hard for me to see him in the White House in this scenario.
 
Hmm. I could see Eisenhower choosing Harry Cain as his running mate in '52 instead - that would certainly be interesting. It's hard to see a Congressman Nixon snagging a place in the Cabinet, and as you pointed out he has very few places to go up in California politics. Maybe become Ambassador Nixon?
 
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