Frederick Barbarossa dies early

Who would have been most likely to have become emperor if Frederick Barbarossa had died early in his reign, for instance around 1160, before producing an heir? Would Henry the Lion have been the most likely solution? If so, how would this effect later history? He controlled large areas directly. Would it have delayed the fragmentation of the empire?
 
Barbarossa had a (half) brother: Conrad of the Palatinate, which will be the Staufer candidate.

Henry the Lion would most likely be the Guelph one, but many princes would oppose him in the same fashion they opposed his father Henry the Proud, he also had a considerable internal opposition in both Bavaria and Saxony, particularly from the Count of Anhalt, Albert the Bear. So Conrad would most likely get elected, Henry could contest just like his father contested Conrad III's election (and Conrad and Frederick of Swabia contested his grandfather Lothair II's), taking his father (and his own in 1180) the prospects for Henry aren't really great, he could pull that off, maybe in a decisive battle he captures Conrad, but he would have to grant many concessions for the princes to accept him, otherwise they would simply pick another rival for him, like the Babenbergs of Austria.
 
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