You mean a democratically elected government?
No, I don't. That one obviously was not in control of anything.
Franz Josof dies Spring 1914
- Thread starter Derek Jackson
- Start date
No, I don't. That one obviously was not in control of anything.
LordKalvert
Banned
Britain effectively ends all idea of defending Turkey during the Armenian crises of 1894-96 Salisbury makes the statement after Britain suggested ATTACKING the Ottoman Empire and deposing the Sultan. In the same conversation he makes an illusion to offering France Syria- how's that compatible with defending the Straits?
The British had concluded that the defense of the straits had become impossible mainly because British foreign policy had driven the Sultan into the Russian embrace and French neutrality could no longer be assured. The Sultan had basically dismantled his Black Sea Fortifications and moved them to the Mediterranean while disarming his own navy.
The Admirality simply refused to consider Salisbury's suggestion in 1895 that the force the straits even with the help of the Italian Navy
Doubt if the French would help the Russians grab the straits but they aren't stopping them either- I think we agree here
FJ refused to even consider the idea even when it came from Beck whom he respected a lot. FF on the other hand, always desired very good relations with Russia and despised the thought of war. He also didn't think much of Britain nor did he see it as offering Austria much hope even in the early 1890's
If there's going to be a partition of the Balkans, it would have come from FF. I don't think that's very realistic after the Balkan Wars but before, yes definitely. Can't say its a sure bet but a very likely one
Perhaps but I think your reaching here. The decision to intervene in the Austro-Serbian quarrel was made because it was felt that Russia's position in the Balkan's would collapse if she didn't resist. Not sure if that's true but that's how they saw it.
That one was very obviously in control of the state, as much as a moderately efficient non-totalitarian government can be in control of anything.
I'm at a serious loss as to what you meant, then. The "Black Hand"? Spent 90% of its existence in a struggle against the government which it lost at every turn.
Look for Russian Ambassador Hartwig, who effectively was running affairs in Belgrade. Pasic obviously was not in charge, and fled to Nis in order to be off and out. Dimitrejevic could act how he wanted.
I'm aware of him, however, please elaborate in what way he was running affairs in Belgrade. What decisions did he make, how did he influence the government?
Obviously in what way?
I'm not sure what you mean by "fled to Nis". Nis became the new capital of Serbia after the start of the war, since Belgrade was right there on the Austrian border. Everybody moved there. Not being in Nis could mean being left out of the loop.
Dimitrijevic wanted to overthrow Pasic and the government.
Since he lacked the resources and influence to pull of an actual military coup, he turned to the opposition parties and attempted to rally them into a coalition...and completely failed in that, too.
So, no.
Halagaz;9951211I'm not sure what you mean by "fled to Nis". Nis became the new capital of Serbia after the start of the war said:
Knowing what was going to happen in Sarajevo, and completely unable to do anything about it (provided the possibility that he wasn't in total agreement), Pasic went to Nis in order to be not available when things in Belgarde went interesting after the murder of Franz Ferdinand.
So what else is different in your timeline apart from Russia starting the war?
IOTL, there were three wars coalescing:
1. The local war A-H vs Serbia. This is what A-H and Germany wanted.
2. The general European war. This is what Russia wanted.
3. The world war. This came about by Britain meddling in contental affairs.
ITTL there will be no local war, because Franz II is the A-H peace party.
That will make it difficult for the Russian leadership to find a conflict they can escalate zu a general European war.
There is no evidence whatsoever that Russia wanted a general European war. There is substantial evidence that Germany did want one however. Their whole plan of war relied on simultaneous war with France and Russia, they strongly encouraged Austria-Hungary to start a war with Serbia under the promise of fully backing them, despite knowing well how this could start a war with Russia and they made no effort whatsoever to avoid a war with Russia. Add the fact how the German leadership feared that Russia would soon become too strong soon, so that many though that something had to be done and there is at least very strong circumstantial evidence that they did want a war.
As for your characterization of British involvement, that doesn't deserve anything but a
.That is why Russia fully mobilised opposite Germany and Austria-Hungary at a moment when A-H was partially mobilising opposite Serbia.
The Russian army simply didn't have the mechanism for a partial mobilization. In fact they had initially ordered a local mobilization before switching the next day.
Meanwhile the fact that Russia advised Serbia to accept the ultimatum was apparently a sign of their desire to expand the conflict...
That has never been proven. In fact, all available sources suggest Pasic had only a vague idea that Ferdinand might be in danger (which is why he sent a vague warning to Vienna). Any other Serb could have had the same idea without any involvement in conspiracies, for the simple reason that Ferdinand's visit to Sarajevo was scheduled for St. Vitus Day.
Late July 1914 in Serbia was election time, politicians were campaigning in various towns throughout the country. After the Archduke's assassination, Pasic soon returned to Belgrade, which he only left on July 26, when the entire government moved to Nis.Strange, when the demarche (AKA the ultimatum) was handed over, he was found absent again. Baron Giesel had to pass the document to the Serbian minister of finance.
My mistake; upon re-reading McMeekin, it appears Pasic left Belgrade on July 22, a day before the ultimatum was delivered. Before leaving he also deputized the Finance Minister to act on his behalf.
Importantly, the Finance Minister refused to receive the ultimatum on behalf of the Serbian government (and thus begin the countdown to Vienna's deadline for the response), excusing this refusal with Pasic's absence. Sounds like a classic stalling tactic to me.
This, combined with how we know Pasic was vigorously directing Serbia's foreign policy even from Nis, and how he was already back in Belgrade on July 25 to oversee the response to the ultimatum, reveals that the Prime Minister was neither being left out of the July loop nor leaving himself out.