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An entire month passed between the assassination of Franz Ferdinand on June 28th and the declaration of war on Serbia by Austria-Hungary July 28th. Some historians have even suggested that the length of time that passed between the murder and Vienna's delivery of her demands to Belgrade allowed much of the sympathy shown Austria-Hungary following Franz Ferdinand's death to ebb.

But what if Austria-Hungary moved much more quickly?

Franz Ferdinand was in Bosnia to watch military maneuvers, so at least part of the A-H army was already mobilized. Two weeks prior to the assassination, Berchtold, the A-H foreign minister, had written a very strong memo urging war against Serbia which the Crown Council, with the exception of Tisza the PM, gleefully accepted. The A-H army chief von Hotzendorf wanted a quick war. The emperor Franz Joseph was simply happy that the heir he despised was dead. The conspirators had all named Colonel Dimitrijevic and the Black Hand to A-H investigators by July 2nd. The German army let it be known it preferred a quick war as early as July 2nd and Wilhelm II handed Vienna his famous "blank check" unofficially on July 4th and officially on July 5th. The Serbian capital Belgrade was even right on the border between Serbia and Austria-Hungary.

It seems everything was in place for a quick declaration and even quicker assault, but Berchtold and others in the A-H government instead spent three weeks crafting a list of demands which, once Serbia rejected some as planned, would simply give Austria-Hungary more of a reason to declare war. It was almost as if, because he was hated so much by the political elite in Austria-Hungary, Franz Ferdinand's death at the hands of a conspiracy supported by Serbian officials was really enough provocation for war and that Austria-Hungary needed to "trick" Serbia into committing another "offense" before declaring war.

So, what if Austria-Hungary "screams and leaps" sometime during the first week in July of 1914, occupying Belgrade with the forces already on maneuvers in Bosnia, and thus presenting the world with the fait accompli it's politicians dithered about for an entire month in the OTL?

In this scenario, Austria-Hungary occupies Belgrade, stops there, and then issues it's demands to the Serbian government. None of the powers, not even the A-H empire, has mobilized, none of the powers has even begun to mobilize. Wilhelm's blank check isn't yet common knowledge in diplomatic and government circles. The High Seas Fleet is still visiting Norway. Poincare is still visiting Russia. Most of the British government is on holiday. There's no slow build up of tensions, no dawning appreciation over weeks that war might be coming. Franz Ferdinand is murdered and Austria-Hungarian troops are sitting in Belgrade ten days later.

What might be the results of this true fait accompli? Will Russia still mobilize even though the fighting is over? Will the Powers all meet in conference as Grey proposed?

Hope to read your thoughts.
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