Franz Joseph "Screams and Leaps"

An entire month passed between the assassination of Franz Ferdinand on June 28th and the declaration of war on Serbia by Austria-Hungary July 28th. Some historians have even suggested that the length of time that passed between the murder and Vienna's delivery of her demands to Belgrade allowed much of the sympathy shown Austria-Hungary following Franz Ferdinand's death to ebb.

But what if Austria-Hungary moved much more quickly?

Franz Ferdinand was in Bosnia to watch military maneuvers, so at least part of the A-H army was already mobilized. Two weeks prior to the assassination, Berchtold, the A-H foreign minister, had written a very strong memo urging war against Serbia which the Crown Council, with the exception of Tisza the PM, gleefully accepted. The A-H army chief von Hotzendorf wanted a quick war. The emperor Franz Joseph was simply happy that the heir he despised was dead. The conspirators had all named Colonel Dimitrijevic and the Black Hand to A-H investigators by July 2nd. The German army let it be known it preferred a quick war as early as July 2nd and Wilhelm II handed Vienna his famous "blank check" unofficially on July 4th and officially on July 5th. The Serbian capital Belgrade was even right on the border between Serbia and Austria-Hungary.

It seems everything was in place for a quick declaration and even quicker assault, but Berchtold and others in the A-H government instead spent three weeks crafting a list of demands which, once Serbia rejected some as planned, would simply give Austria-Hungary more of a reason to declare war. It was almost as if, because he was hated so much by the political elite in Austria-Hungary, Franz Ferdinand's death at the hands of a conspiracy supported by Serbian officials was really enough provocation for war and that Austria-Hungary needed to "trick" Serbia into committing another "offense" before declaring war.

So, what if Austria-Hungary "screams and leaps" sometime during the first week in July of 1914, occupying Belgrade with the forces already on maneuvers in Bosnia, and thus presenting the world with the fait accompli it's politicians dithered about for an entire month in the OTL?

In this scenario, Austria-Hungary occupies Belgrade, stops there, and then issues it's demands to the Serbian government. None of the powers, not even the A-H empire, has mobilized, none of the powers has even begun to mobilize. Wilhelm's blank check isn't yet common knowledge in diplomatic and government circles. The High Seas Fleet is still visiting Norway. Poincare is still visiting Russia. Most of the British government is on holiday. There's no slow build up of tensions, no dawning appreciation over weeks that war might be coming. Franz Ferdinand is murdered and Austria-Hungarian troops are sitting in Belgrade ten days later.

What might be the results of this true fait accompli? Will Russia still mobilize even though the fighting is over? Will the Powers all meet in conference as Grey proposed?

Hope to read your thoughts.
 
Italy scream.
AH actions in this form are straightforward violations of articles 5 & 7 of the Triple Alliance expanded Treaty (1912).

Russia shouts (no reason to explain why)

Germany is not pleased, since it needs to have a mobilized army to carry on its projects.

In summary, the Triple Alliance is no more
 
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Will Russia still mobilize even though the fighting is over? Will the Powers all meet in conference as Grey proposed?

Hope to read your thoughts.

I think chances might be good IF the fighting is over, but I have some doubts that Serbia will sign a ceasefire just because Belgrade is lost.

Also, a conference might just lead to nothing. Once somebody moblizes, the fuse is lit.

A difference might be that under such circumstances, the war-guilt might be more clearly found in either Belgrade or Vienna.
 

Deleted member 1487

An entire month passed between the assassination of Franz Ferdinand on June 28th and the declaration of war on Serbia by Austria-Hungary July 28th. Some historians have even suggested that the length of time that passed between the murder and Vienna's delivery of her demands to Belgrade allowed much of the sympathy shown Austria-Hungary following Franz Ferdinand's death to ebb.

But what if Austria-Hungary moved much more quickly?

Franz Ferdinand was in Bosnia to watch military maneuvers, so at least part of the A-H army was already mobilized. Two weeks prior to the assassination, Berchtold, the A-H foreign minister, had written a very strong memo urging war against Serbia which the Crown Council, with the exception of Tisza the PM, gleefully accepted. The A-H army chief von Hotzendorf wanted a quick war. The emperor Franz Joseph was simply happy that the heir he despised was dead. The conspirators had all named Colonel Dimitrijevic and the Black Hand to A-H investigators by July 2nd. The German army let it be known it preferred a quick war as early as July 2nd and Wilhelm II handed Vienna his famous "blank check" unofficially on July 4th and officially on July 5th. The Serbian capital Belgrade was even right on the border between Serbia and Austria-Hungary.

It seems everything was in place for a quick declaration and even quicker assault, but Berchtold and others in the A-H government instead spent three weeks crafting a list of demands which, once Serbia rejected some as planned, would simply give Austria-Hungary more of a reason to declare war. It was almost as if, because he was hated so much by the political elite in Austria-Hungary, Franz Ferdinand's death at the hands of a conspiracy supported by Serbian officials was really enough provocation for war and that Austria-Hungary needed to "trick" Serbia into committing another "offense" before declaring war.

So, what if Austria-Hungary "screams and leaps" sometime during the first week in July of 1914, occupying Belgrade with the forces already on maneuvers in Bosnia, and thus presenting the world with the fait accompli it's politicians dithered about for an entire month in the OTL?

In this scenario, Austria-Hungary occupies Belgrade, stops there, and then issues it's demands to the Serbian government. None of the powers, not even the A-H empire, has mobilized, none of the powers has even begun to mobilize. Wilhelm's blank check isn't yet common knowledge in diplomatic and government circles. The High Seas Fleet is still visiting Norway. Poincare is still visiting Russia. Most of the British government is on holiday. There's no slow build up of tensions, no dawning appreciation over weeks that war might be coming. Franz Ferdinand is murdered and Austria-Hungarian troops are sitting in Belgrade ten days later.

What might be the results of this true fait accompli? Will Russia still mobilize even though the fighting is over? Will the Powers all meet in conference as Grey proposed?

Hope to read your thoughts.


Can't happen like that. The reason it took so long was that the Empire was not a autocracy. The Emperor was not exclusively in charge and due to the dualist nature of the government, both sides had to approve of any action and reconcile their final plan. Everything went as quickly as possible given that the Hungarians were not at all eager for war, Tisza's opinions not withstanding. So the ultimatum had to be bounced back and forth multiple times and dissected repeatedly. A verneer of legality had to be maintained, so a declaration of war without proof of Serbian colusion with the terrorists is still going to turn the world against AH and Germany.
 
The reason it took so long was that the Empire was not a autocracy.

I realize Franz Joseph wasn't an autocrat.

The Emperor was not exclusively in charge and due to the dualist nature of the government, both sides had to approve of any action and reconcile their final plan.

Hungary's sign off was only necessary if the empire was to fully mobilize for a war that could include Russia. What if the empire simply went ahead with a punitive occupation using the troops already on maneuvers in Bosnia?

Everything went as quickly as possible given that the Hungarians were not at all eager for war, Tisza's opinions not withstanding.

Tisza was the last member of the Crown Council to sign off on the demarche. While a saber rattler before June 28th, he held up any move towards war afterward. So, what if Tisza isn't the prime minister and a fire eater is instead?

A verneer of legality had to be maintained, so a declaration of war without proof of Serbian colusion with the terrorists is still going to turn the world against AH and Germany.

All the legality necessary was in hand. Princip and the others had confessed and named Dimitrijevic and the Black Hand by July 2nd. The OTL's demarche and subsequent declaration of war didn't wait for the assassins' trials to be over, so why would a quick occupation of Belgrade in this time line be any different?
 
Italy scream.

Italy is of no consequence and neither is the Triple Alliance.

In the OTL the A-H took it's time and went through the whole diplomatic note routine before declaring war on Serbia and Italy still slipped out of her treaty obligations.

If Italy mobilizes against the Triple Alliance we're looking at a campaign similar to that in the OTL in which Italy accomplished nothing and nearly ruined herself. If Italy mobilizes in support of the Triple Alliance, she's at the mercies of Entente naval forces in the Med. Either way, Italy is of no consequence.

Russia shouts (no reason to explain why)

Yes, Russia shouts. But does Russia mobilize? Especially with the A-H already in Belgrade, advancing no further into Serbia, and presenting it's OTL list of demands which include no territorial losses for Serbia.

Germany is not pleased...

The German in the person of Moltke told the A-H on July 2nd it preferred a quick war sooner than later and the German government in the person of Wilhelm II officially gave the A-H a blank check on July 5th. The A-H has just done what Germany wanted it to do, launch a limited war quickly.

In summary, the Triple Alliance is no more

The Triple Alliance is of no consequence as I explained above, either historically or in this case. Italy will slip out of it's provisions in pursuit of her own goals.
 

Deleted member 1487

I realize Franz Joseph wasn't an autocrat.



Hungary's sign off was only necessary if the empire was to fully mobilize for a war that could include Russia. What if the empire simply went ahead with a punitive occupation using the troops already on maneuvers in Bosnia?
No, Hungary's response was very necessary, especially when an act like this would lead to a wider war. Even in the occupation of Bosnia in the 19th century the Hungarians were needed to agree to it, and that did not involve war against another nation. Even if it was a 'strafexpedition' the Hungarians needed to sign off on it. AH is not the US where the Executive can order military action and in 60 days Congress can then deny funding, both halves of the Empire were required for ANY military action, though the Emperor could control the Austrian parliament.

The 6th army was not mobilized for war, it was only ready for maneuvers, something very different. Also, it was very small compared to the historical size of the 6th army, as mass mobilization saw many more units attached. Furthermore the 6th army was in one of the most logistically undeveloped areas of the empire, as Bosnia had only one main rail line leading into and out of it. If they were to go after Belgrade, as you suggest, they would first need to finish war mobilization, march out of the field to the nearest rail station and wait while the entire army is transferred to southern Hungary so that they could go after Belgrade. Given the spotty rail lines allowing them to do this, it would take at least 10 days to do so, meaning that the Serbs would have plenty of time to mobilize and invade Bosnia, not to mention defend their fortified capitol. They would be warned by all Franz Josef's 'screaming'.

Beyond this, they needed heavy artillery to do anything, but that would require full mobilization, meaning it was far easier and faster to moblize other armies to invade Belgrade, but as I said before, any military action requires Hungarian approval. So naturally it will take time to get approval, let alone mobilize the necessary forces. Historically it took the 5th and 6th armies just to be defeated while invading Serbia, both reinforced by mountain brigades and other attached units. So any Strafexpedition will have to be stronger than that, something Austrian planning prewar told them. They would need the 2nd army, of 5 corps, in addition to the reinforced 5th and 6th armies, as was planned. There is no chance in hell of the AOK being silly enough to send a weak 6th army in all alone.




Tisza was the last member of the Crown Council to sign off on the demarche. While a saber rattler before June 28th, he held up any move towards war afterward. So, what if Tisza isn't the prime minister and a fire eater is instead?
Tisza was a unique man, he kept the fire eaters, who wanted to fight Austria for independence, in line while trying to ensure the empire didn't get into a wider war it could lose. A fire eater instead of Tisza would have mean a civil war much sooner. If you mean someone with all the characteristics of Tisza, but still wanted to launch a war that would benefit Austria and put Hungary in a vulnerable position where she could be attacked by Romania and Russia, then that man wouldn't be Hungarian. Tisza was unique in his positions in Hungary, especially at the time, he could play all sides masterfully and was a realist who understood how to rule in Hungary despite being part of a clear minority. You cannot replace the man or change his beliefs without upsetting the very delicate balance that was the Empire. To do so would have changed history prior so much that there would not have been a WW1 as we know it.


All the legality necessary was in hand. Princip and the others had confessed and named Dimitrijevic and the Black Hand by July 2nd. The OTL's demarche and subsequent declaration of war didn't wait for the assassins' trials to be over, so why would a quick occupation of Belgrade in this time line be any different?

Honestly, that is not enough proof. One could argue that given AHs hatred of Serbia that they tortured these men into confessions. Even if what they said was true and accepted, Europe could not tolerate willy-nilly wars upsetting peace and trade, especially when Russia wouldn't tolerate her friend getting invaded out of the blue. There would have to be an ultimatum, something the profession diplomats and politicians of AH understood, which is why they did it in the first place. Also, the Black Hand was not a representative of the Serbian government, rather a group within the nation. The US had to issue an ultimatum to Afghanistan before going after Al Qaeda, not because it wanted to, but because international relations demanded it. The verneer of legality is very important to nation states.
 
Even after the time spent Vienna didn't actually do much to prepare for war, like ordering the General Staff back from summer vacation. On top of the points wiking made.
 
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