One thing that can be added is that AFAIK even Franz Joseph was a pacifist in 1914 but the military establishment pushed him to declare war against Serbia anyway, so something similar could happen to FF even given his younger age with another casus belli.
Franz Joseph dies earlier and Franz Ferdinand is the new emperor of Austria
- Thread starter panderson
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One thing that can be added is that AFAIK even Franz Joseph was a pacifist in 1914 but the military establishment pushed him to declare war against Serbia anyway, so something similar could happen to FF even given his younger age with another casus belli.
Deleted member 1487
Ah no, the reason they were able to do so was that FF was the only peace party that had the will to stand up to the war parties around FJ. Conrad, willful guy in his own right, was much more often than not shouted down by FF. Frankly there was no a single person that could get FF to change his mind when it was made up, as there was tons of pressure on him to go to war or at least sanction it from 1907-1914; Conrad was constantly begging him to attack Italy and/or Serbia, but FF stood firm, even during the Balkan wars when most of the rest of the government, even the Hungarians, were pressuring for A-H to enter.
http://www.jstor.org/stable/2638305...m=3&ttl=932&returnArticleService=showFullText
yourworstnightmare
Banned
Considering Serb, Romanian and Italian autonomy would be dangerous (they might just declare they secede), I tend to agree that Vienna wouldn't give them anything. Still a Austria like this would be a chaotic place. Hungary might agree reluctantly if all they lose is Croatia- Slavonia (but then again they might not). Hungary without Croatia would lose coast access (which was the main reason Hungary didn't wanted to lose the territory).
Bohemia would be a cesspool between Czechs and Germans (with the German population backed by Vienna). In Galizia there would be rivalry between Germans, Poles and Ukrainians. Might actually be a good temporary solution for the Habsburgs. The people of the empire would be too preoccupied to fight each other to bother actually trying to rule.
Well,we said that the civil war come (for clashes with the Hungarians).
Can Franz Ferdinand crush the Hungarians rebels and establish Trialism (Austria-Hungary-Southern Slavia) or a federal monarchy?
Well maybe this can continue even after re-organisation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corpus_separatum_(Fiume)
Yeah that's what I was asking, seemed like what was best for the Croatians conflicted sharply with what was best for the Emperor. Still, simply getting the vote and minority rights would be a major boost for them anyway.
Also makes them less likely to mouth off or contemplate revolting if they don't have their own tame military on tap. How long was Austria-Hungary's conscription period? A decent military reform I was thinking of was rather than having them do it all in local units they do a year locally for their initial training and then get posted to another part of the Empire for a second year, avoids local loyalties if anything happens and exposes them to other parts/cultures of the Empire.
I can't remember if it was you or someone else but I've been curious about his reforms since someone posted about them on the board a few years back. Never been able to track down a great deal about them except for the general overview, do you have any concrete details on it?
I'll throw in my normal suggestion of if the Habsburgs are ensuring minority rights then offer government funded schooling in local languages but demand lessons also teaching Austrian German as a quid pro quo to create an Imperial lingua franca. If you want to encourage school attendance then institute free school meals, offer a basic nutritionally decent lunch and have it finish early enough in the day and long holidays at certain times of the year that they can still help out with work afterwards. Parents should like it since it gets them educated, helps takes care of one of the major expenses of having kids - feeding the little buggers, and still gives them time to work.
For Children undergoing higher Education (matura), an Exchange Programme (4-12 months at age 14-16) would Be a Great Concept.
Also, Government employees should Be fluent in two imperial languages, from a certain Level on Basic Knowledge of a Third is needed. (Side Effect: acquiring Language skills trains the Brain ;-
)).
Also, Government employees should Be fluent in two imperial languages, from a certain Level on Basic Knowledge of a Third is needed. (Side Effect: acquiring Language skills trains the Brain ;-
)).
It was tried in OTL at least in Zagreb it just created even more resentment. People acused the Imperial goverment they were trying to buy their loyalty with food.
The question is - can they suceed - IIRC OTLs sucess was at leas t a big part "luck" on the assassins side...
well why couldnt that be changed if the whole concept of the "United States of Greater Austria" comes about..or something similar?
I stick with yes, sure OTL Sarajevo was really a case of bad luck for FF but nevertheless at the time (and for our standard) security was very lax see how the King of Italy was killed a few years before.
I think we should let him be emperor for some time before we begin to kill him off 
I think we can assume that FF is inclined to "keep" the peace.
Would he try to "soften" the rigid defensive pacts of OTL?
I think we can assume that FF is inclined to "keep" the peace.
Would he try to "soften" the rigid defensive pacts of OTL?
Well, he disliked Italy and France, but was fond of Russia's imperial monarchy and respected Great Britain and maintained good ties with its royal family.
Let's imagine that FF isn't able to appease the South Slavs sufficiently because of Magyar interference or simply because a monarchy can't allow itself to be liberal above a certain level without endangering itself :
is it possible that:
1) the Bosnian and possibly the other South Slavs (Croats ans Slovene) will rebel
2) the Russians and the Serbs will intervene on behalf of their endangered brothers
3) Ww1 will repeat itself with AH in a disadvantaged position, exactly what historically the Austrians wanted to avoid by attacking Serbia first
The wider question is if Ww1 was a fluke or there were wider trends that couldn' be really avoided
is it possible that:
1) the Bosnian and possibly the other South Slavs (Croats ans Slovene) will rebel
2) the Russians and the Serbs will intervene on behalf of their endangered brothers
3) Ww1 will repeat itself with AH in a disadvantaged position, exactly what historically the Austrians wanted to avoid by attacking Serbia first
The wider question is if Ww1 was a fluke or there were wider trends that couldn' be really avoided
yourworstnightmare
Banned
It's very hard to say how fast the South Slav situation would deteriorate. But probably not so fast that there'd be a rebellion before the 20s. People need to remember that WW1 actually considerably sped up the trends towards collapse in Austria- Hungary. It was coming, but not that fast, and might be avoided. However the reforms Austria- Hungary need were reforms no one really wanted.
The different parts of Austria- Hungary basically wanted Hungary's deal, to be able to rule themself without any interference from Vienna, while the Habsburgs basically wanted the opposite, they wanted to stregthen their own power.
Except the earlier imposition of German was that, an imposition. There was no quid pro quo culturally.
Still, thar will have left a bad taste in peoples mouths, and would make it harder to get German universally taught, as people will suspect a linguistic Trojan Horse.
Well, AH is a peculiar case because the construction of the state as a sort of "dynastic federation" lacks functionality once the monarch is a failure, but you should note that it is the liberal monarchies of Northwestern Europe whose thrones are still occupied in 2012.
The probability for this to occur this way round is not that high. The monarchy in 1914 lacked really strong truly separatist movements which were in the position to start such a rebellion. The troublespots were the Czech-German differences in Bohemia (less so in Moravia) with both sides unable to really get anywhere; and more subtly, the patient and stubborn way the Hungarian Government expanded their autonomy punctually in each year ending on -7.
The Slovenes might become vociferous (for the first time, IIRC), if FF goes for a Southslav crown, but leaves them ("Krain") under the rule of Vienna.
WW1 certainly was no fluke. With hindsight, I would say that the chances for a major WW1-style European war in the 1910s was at 80% or more, which doesn't mean that it is absolutely unavoidable.
And, more so, it is not a given that Austria-Hungary plays the key role in the events leading up to it.
IMHO, if FF rules Austria-Hungary and keeps to the conviction to evade war if possible, Russia becomes the top candidate to provoke war unless for some reason decapacitated (revolution, war in Asia). In that case, Germany moves to the spot, unless for some reason liberalising (Wilhelm too heavily involved in some kind of scandal, 1917 elections leading to a Reichstag ceasing to accept the Kaiser's role). In that case, nobody is really left in Europe who would be in the position.
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On languages: actually, I am not of the opinion that German as a lingua franca needs to be strengthened. The monarchy's economical, political and cultural elites knew German and used it. Measures of that kind are rather more important in order to show the other Völker that the arrangement is a quid pro quo.
And, it is doable. Although under different circumstances, and reluctantly so, my great-grandfather learnt Czech in order to keep his job in the 1920s. Compulsory learning Czech as a foreign language at school despite living in an area where the only Czech speakers were newly incoming Government officials didn't hurt my grandfather either.
abc123
Banned
German language WAS universally learned in allmost all high schools in A-H Monarchy, and nobody had anything against German as foreign language ( and essentially you would have to try hard to find educated person in A-H who didn't know German ), but people had issues with German as official language, since that was tried several times to be imposed on non-Germans...
I will allow myself to renew this topic. IMO it will be that:
Franz Joseph died in 1909 on pneumonia, FF became emperor. After that he started negotiations about new constitution. To his allies against Hungarians use Austro-Slavists, He decided to make federal monarchy and change Popovici Project in more conservative way. Crushed Mayar ressistance by using miniorities and police and created United States of Habsburg/Danubian* Empire, with central government and Reichsrat modeled on cisleithanian which will deal with:
- War and foreign affairs
- Federal Police (intelligence, counterintelligence and ect.)
- Economy
- Infrastructure
- Post and telegraphs
- Justice
- Tariffs and taxes
Rest issues will be case of:
- Archduchy of Austria consisted by: Austrian Littoral, Princely County of Tyrol, Voralberg, Upper and Lower Austria, Duchies of Carinthia, Styria and Salzburg (with Italian autonomy in southern Tyrol)
- Kingdom of Bohemia consisted by: Kingdom of Bohemia, Margraviate of Moravia and Austrian Silesia (with German autonomy in Sudetenland)
- Kingdom of Illyria consisted by: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Duchy of Carniola, Kingdom of Dalmatia, Fiume and Kingdom of Croatia-Slavonia
- Kingdom of Hungary. Hungary proper with Slovakian autonomy
- Kingdom of Galicia and Lodomeria consisted by: Kingdom of Galicia and Lodomeria and Duchy of Bukovina with Rusyn and Romanian autonomy
To avoid war with Russia, during Balkan Wars and London negotiations FF was active which resulted in divide Albania by Serbia and Greece (OTL opposition of AH prevented that) and recognition of Russian influence on Balkans in exchange for Bosnia annexation and Empire borders. Because of alliance with Germany will push Vienna to war FF tried to made new alliance with GB (status quo/balance of powers alliance). How do you see that?
*I don’t know what will be beter or only Daunubian Empire.
Franz Joseph died in 1909 on pneumonia, FF became emperor. After that he started negotiations about new constitution. To his allies against Hungarians use Austro-Slavists, He decided to make federal monarchy and change Popovici Project in more conservative way. Crushed Mayar ressistance by using miniorities and police and created United States of Habsburg/Danubian* Empire, with central government and Reichsrat modeled on cisleithanian which will deal with:
- War and foreign affairs
- Federal Police (intelligence, counterintelligence and ect.)
- Economy
- Infrastructure
- Post and telegraphs
- Justice
- Tariffs and taxes
Rest issues will be case of:
- Archduchy of Austria consisted by: Austrian Littoral, Princely County of Tyrol, Voralberg, Upper and Lower Austria, Duchies of Carinthia, Styria and Salzburg (with Italian autonomy in southern Tyrol)
- Kingdom of Bohemia consisted by: Kingdom of Bohemia, Margraviate of Moravia and Austrian Silesia (with German autonomy in Sudetenland)
- Kingdom of Illyria consisted by: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Duchy of Carniola, Kingdom of Dalmatia, Fiume and Kingdom of Croatia-Slavonia
- Kingdom of Hungary. Hungary proper with Slovakian autonomy
- Kingdom of Galicia and Lodomeria consisted by: Kingdom of Galicia and Lodomeria and Duchy of Bukovina with Rusyn and Romanian autonomy
To avoid war with Russia, during Balkan Wars and London negotiations FF was active which resulted in divide Albania by Serbia and Greece (OTL opposition of AH prevented that) and recognition of Russian influence on Balkans in exchange for Bosnia annexation and Empire borders. Because of alliance with Germany will push Vienna to war FF tried to made new alliance with GB (status quo/balance of powers alliance). How do you see that?
*I don’t know what will be beter or only Daunubian Empire.