Franz Ferdinand Survives

Inspired by the 'worst TL ever' thread, and conscious that it's probably been done before, what are the implications of Franz Ferdinand surviving the assassination attempt in Sarajevo?
 

abc123

Banned
Inspired by the 'worst TL ever' thread, and conscious that it's probably been done before, what are the implications of Franz Ferdinand surviving the assassination attempt in Sarajevo?

There was a good TL about that, but it seems that it's deserted by author...
:(
 
There are always two views. Both are laid out below by Richard Ned Lebow:
“Sarajevo was not a match that set the dry kindling of Europe alight—the metaphor routinely invoked by historians and international relations scholars. It was more like a permissive action link on a nuclear weapon; a trigger as complicated as the weapon itself that requires a specific code without which the warhead cannnot be detonated”
at http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=...ear weapon; a trigger as complicated"&f=false

A fun title of another Lebow article was “Franz Ferdinand found alive World War I unnecessary”.
 
Interesting little article (what I could get of it on googlebooks, anyway.) Thanks. I'm surprised how people actually believe the assassination to have caused WWI.
 
Interesting little article (what I could get of it on googlebooks, anyway.) Thanks. I'm surprised how people actually believe the assassination to have caused WWI.


It caused WW1 to happen when it did. Without it, something else might have caused WW1, but at a different time and in different circumstances.
 
It didn't cause the war. It just pulled the trigger. The gun was both primed, aimed and at the ready.

The whole thing could probably have been delayed (at least) if Austria had invaded Serbia within the first 24 hours, occupied Belgrad and demanded an apology.

A fait accompli is effective.

If the archduke had not been killed (but the attempt still carried out), same story.

If no attempt? something else would have happened as the underlying reasons were still there. Strangely enough. It would not have been in the West (German-Uk relations were actually fairly OK), it had to happen in the East.

So, to disappoint -> WWI would happen more or less as OTL
 
So, to disappoint -> WWI would happen more or less as OTL

not necessarily...if franz ferdinand had survived and come to the throne, its unlikly that austria-hungary wouldve being drawn into a major european war...even with its ethnic tensions and relations with other powers, austria-hungary didnt have alot to gain by joining in such a war...or even if they had won our ww1...
they merely became the catalyst for all the tensions as you said were building...remove ferdinands death and add his ascension to the throne, you could at least remove serbia as the trigger and probaly prevent a-h from joining in the future war (i agree it was inevitable, but your flawed in saying it wouldve happened the same)
 
jkar: I hear what you say, but I think we must also take into account that the military and others within AH were lookng at the future in very gloomy terms.

Somehow, they feared that the slavs were going to take over and that it was only a matter of time before the war (AH vs. slav) would be coming.

It was also one of the reason why Conrad et al were not unhappy with the war in 1914. As they saw it, rather now than later when especially Russia's rail modernisation had come into play.

That's why I belive that the singular person (Archduke) did not matter that much. It would have been something else in the time frame of 1014/5.

I am leaning heavily on Ponting's book "13 days" for this.

yes?
 
jkar: I hear what you say, but I think we must also take into account that the military and others within AH were lookng at the future in very gloomy terms.

Somehow, they feared that the slavs were going to take over and that it was only a matter of time before the war (AH vs. slav) would be coming.

It was also one of the reason why Conrad et al were not unhappy with the war in 1914. As they saw it, rather now than later when especially Russia's rail modernisation had come into play.

That's why I belive that the singular person (Archduke) did not matter that much. It would have been something else in the time frame of 1014/5.

I am leaning heavily on Ponting's book "13 days" for this.

yes?
While Conrad had been pushing for war with Serbia for sometime he also had been turned down for just as long. In fact there is probably a fair chance that if he lives given enough time FF who was fairly important in getting Conrad his job will likely move to have him removed as the two had become somewhat estranged. Also speaking of Franz he was much more interested in breaking the power of the Hungarians and ensuring that the Italians in the Empire were kept in line according to most sources I've read. As for the Slavs in Austria-Hungary while I doubt he was a slavophile he was likely to view them as a useful counterweight against the Hungarians or at the very least a tool to use in breaking them.
With that said all bets are off if while Franz Ferdinand lives his wife Sophie still dies in such a situation assuming he's able FF would likely be leading the charge for war.
 
So here's a question: What would have happen if Franz Joseph (the Kaiser) had been killed making that trip instead of his heir? There would still be a war, but it could have gone much differently...
 
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