Franz Ferdinand survives

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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Deleted member 1487

What if Franz survived the assassination attempt by Princip due to chance? Potiorek, the military governor of Bosnia was riding with the heir to the throne on the running board of the car, but happened to be on the opposite side of the Serbian assassin. What if he were on the other side of the car, and when Princip fired his shots, Potiorek's body shielded Franz from the bullets? The royal couple would be showered in blood, but still alive as the assassin runs off.

What does that mean for Serbian-Habsburg relations? Franz was probably the best thing for the empire's survival and a somewhat competent military man that was known to reign in some of the worst habits of Conrad von Hötzendorff, head of the K.u.K. army. What does his survival mean for the empire and how does the assassination attempt affect him?
 
Well, he'd already survived a first attempt on his life in the morning. He wasn't quite amused but carried on in what he saw his duty.
Expect him to do so after a failed second attempt as well. However, good for Potiorek to have been shot in shielding the heir to the throne with his body, his career would have been over anyway, so no he can die in glory.

Certainly there would be no threat of war against Serbia, but FF might be tempted to expell some Bosnian Serbs, just for security reasons, - and possibly would become a fan of the Bulgarian alliance. Just throw Serbia before the fangs of the usual Balkans pack.
But no Great War, no bad word to the Russians, no international tensions.
 
What if Franz survived the assassination attempt by Princip due to chance? Potiorek, the military governor of Bosnia was riding with the heir to the throne on the running board of the car, but happened to be on the opposite side of the Serbian assassin. What if he were on the other side of the car, and when Princip fired his shots, Potiorek's body shielded Franz from the bullets? The royal couple would be showered in blood, but still alive as the assassin runs off.

What does that mean for Serbian-Habsburg relations? Franz was probably the best thing for the empire's survival and a somewhat competent military man that was known to reign in some of the worst habits of Conrad von Hötzendorff, head of the K.u.K. army. What does his survival mean for the empire and how does the assassination attempt affect him?

When he takes the throne in 1916 there is a civil war of sorts as FF tries to Federalise the Empire more which waters down Hungarian powers, presuming the Imperial forces haven't lost the Kadets in a war they should hold the multi-national force together and the Empire becomes more stable.

Regards Bobbis
 

Deleted member 1487

You don't think that anything would come of the heir and his wife barely escaping two assassination attempts and the governor being murdered right in front of them? I think there would be some sort of reaction, though perhaps not a full-on war. Could Franz actually insure the survival of the empire? I don't know of the Czechs liked or trusted him, though he did marry a Czech noble, despite having his family barred from taking the thrown upon his death. The entire reason he was targeted was that Serbia saw him as a threat; they were worried he would reform the empire and forever bar them from annexing Bosnia.

IIRC, Franz was also somewhat militaristic and wanted a preemptive war with Serbia to revitalize the empire and reassert Habsburg dominance of the Balkans. Conrad was actually his pupil, so a surviving Franz could change things quite a bit.
 
It would make the war unlikely. He was more progressive than many members of his family. He wanted to grant more rights and autonomy to minorities in the Empire. He also wanted to treat Serbia with a lighter touch. He felt that a war with Serbia would be painful and gain them nothing in return but fig trees, goat pastures, and an aggressive populace that hated them even more than before.

Would he have saved his Empire and family standing, that is a bit more daunting task. But he certainly could have put them in the right direction.
 
Being shot at and having bombs thrown on oneself was a 'normal' business risk for European monarchs, no reason to start a war over this.
IOTL it was the Austrian war party - once devoid of FF's control - who went along and started what was to become WW1. FF was not interested in a war with Serbia, he saw no positive gains for the empire in this.

Whether FF really would have been able to preserve the empire is quite another matter. He hated the Hungarians like the Hungarian leaders hated him. So, even the new 'Ausgleich' due in 1917 would have been very difficult.
Bringing the empire to 'Trialism' was an almost unsolvable task, of all the Slavic ethnicies, only the Poles were a little bit cooperative (for quite selfish reasons), while Czechs, Croats, Slovenes and Serbs had quite different ideas about their future.
Also, FF was not very firm in his position to trialism, he had proposed it once, but also shelfed it again.
The most probable outcome would be a multi-sided bitter civil war, if no great European war spang up until 1918.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Being shot at and having bombs thrown on oneself was a 'normal' business risk for European monarchs, no reason to start a war over this.
IOTL it was the Austrian war party - once devoid of FF's control - who went along and started what was to become WW1. FF was not interested in a war with Serbia, he saw no positive gains for the empire in this.

Whether FF really would have been able to preserve the empire is quite another matter. He hated the Hungarians like the Hungarian leaders hated him. So, even the new 'Ausgleich' due in 1917 would have been very difficult.
Bringing the empire to 'Trialism' was an almost unsolvable task, of all the Slavic ethnicies, only the Poles were a little bit cooperative (for quite selfish reasons), while Czechs, Croats, Slovenes and Serbs had quite different ideas about their future.
Also, FF was not very firm in his position to trialism, he had proposed it once, but also shelfed it again.
The most probable outcome would be a multi-sided bitter civil war, if no great European war spang up until 1918.

But a multisided civil war, the loyalists is quite likely to win with German support.
 
As the era of cabinet wars was over and any war would see mobilised and fanatic masses, atrocities would be unavoidable.
From the loyalist side, domination in the Czech areas would be the most important factor. Austrian Germans mostly hated and despised the Czechs, who were normally portrayed as a mixture of man and monkey.
Yes, with German support and unity with the Hungarians the loyalist forces might win - and afterwards rule a less multi-ethnic empire.

Russian interference might happen, but the Tsar's empire was always close to the next revolution - as long as Nikolay II. insisted on his autocracy. A Russian military adventure - when Russia clearly is not being attacked - might serve to trigger another upheaval - and force the Russians to abandon interference.
 
Russian interference might happen, but the Tsar's empire was always close to the next revolution - as long as Nikolay II. insisted on his autocracy. A Russian military adventure - when Russia clearly is not being attacked - might serve to trigger another upheaval - and force the Russians to abandon interference.

As oppossed to OTL, where the Russians were actually attacked before declaring war on A-H. :rolleyes:
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
WW1 would happen for some other reason. Would A-H survive??? Franz Ferdinand certainly was the best man for the job. But it would depend on how well A-H does in the war, and how willing Vienna and Budapest is to compromise with the minorities.

Of there were federalization I think the parts would be; Austria (German speaking + Slovenia and Trieste (depending on the war)), Bohemia, Galizia- Bukovina, Hungary, Croatia (in union with the crown of St.Stephen) and finally Bosnia- Dalmatia. That would keep a strong Magyar kingdom, but federalize everything else. Of course A-H would probably lose some of these territories in the war (unless the Central Powers miraculously win).
 
Mh, after Sarajevo a situation arose, which was rather unique. Austria-Hungary was bound on war, which made the German decision to risk a war possible. Without the certainity that A-H would stick to its course, Bethmann Hollweg would not have risked a general war.
Secondly, Kaiser Wilhelm II. believed that the Tsar would also condemn the murder of a fellow-monarch and not protect Serbia from A-H punitive measures.
Thus without Sarajevo, you have a Kaiser who only wants peace and a chancellor who cannot talk him into accepting the risk of war.
Certainly, the British battue against Germany would have gone on, but without Sarajevo the Germans might well have evaded going to war.
 
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