Franz Ferdinand never meets Conrad von Hötzendorff

[Deleted member 1487]

Also, I want to make clear that it would nearly be impossible for FF not to meet Conrad. He was too well-known in the army to be ignored, so the POD would have to be changed. Several options are available, such as the 1906 maneuvers going better, but that opens up a number of butterflies that may still not satisfy the desired outcome. Ultimately the best option is to have Beck realize that he was being intrigued against and step down and recommend to his personal friend Kaiser Franz Josef that his hand picked successor be named in his place. Given the circumstances it is nearly impossible for FJ to refuse, but this would create a very interesting and bitter dynamic then between FF in his role as inspector of the armed forces and Potiorek, especially after the events of 1905-1906.

FF's shadow military cabinet would have to contend with the real reforms that Potiorek was interested in versus the superficial and counter productive ones that FF appreciated. OTL this brought Conrad and FF nearly to blows a number of times, which was a contributing factor in Conrad's monthly resignation requests by 1911.

Indeed, FF's opposition to Potiorek may well have the Hungarians supporting him as a check on FF's development of a powerbase in the military. OTL they blocked many of Conrad's budgets and conscription increases, as his constant demand for violence with Hungary and FF's stream of bile against them only made them more wary of added K.u.K. increases. Potiorek was not overtly anti-Hungarian and generally neutral in internal political matters, which, when combined with his being the Kaiser's man, not FF's, should increase the Hungarians' desire to strengthen his position as CoS so that Conrad doesn't get appointed. Indeed, his threat of resignation and the understanding that Conrad would be his replacement might be a tool with which to force through budget increases....

 

[DanF]

Well I am not sure if you gave up an this idea, but your last post sounds really good. One of the biggest weaknesses Austria-Hungary had was they just did not keep up in regards to military arming. In the Book The Last Years of Austria-Hungary, essay Eastern Front by Rudolf Jerabek, stated if A-H milked their population at the same level as other European nations they could of had many more divisions. If at the same level as Germany they would of had 80 Divisions, or if at the level of France then 100 Divisions. OTL A-H had 49 Infantry Divisions and 11 Cavalry Divisions. On top of this by 1910 A-H was spending only 15.7 percent of their budget on Defense, when all other European powers were spending 20% or more.

Lastly, if A-H had 80 Divisions they could have their cake and eat to... The Bosnia invasion without Russian support called for 21 Divisions and 13 Marching Brigades. The full attack Russian plan called for 38.5 Divisions and 21 Marching Brigades. I believe at the start of the war Russian sent 46.5 Infantry and 18.5 Cavalry divisions against A-H. So, if A-H had 80 Divisions they could send 60 vs Russia and 20 vs Serbia and effectively do both plans.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Well I am not sure if you gave up an this idea, but your last post sounds really good. One of the biggest weaknesses Austria-Hungary had was they just did not keep up in regards to military arming. In the Book The Last Years of Austria-Hungary, essay Eastern Front by Rudolf Jerabek, stated if A-H milked their population at the same level as other European nations they could of had many more divisions. If at the same level as Germany they would of had 80 Divisions, or if at the level of France then 100 Divisions. OTL A-H had 49 Infantry Divisions and 11 Cavalry Divisions. On top of this by 1910 A-H was spending only 15.7 percent of their budget on Defense, when all other European powers were spending 20% or more.

Lastly, if A-H had 80 Divisions they could have their cake and eat to... The Bosnia invasion without Russian support called for 21 Divisions and 13 Marching Brigades. The full attack Russian plan called for 38.5 Divisions and 21 Marching Brigades. I believe at the start of the war Russian sent 46.5 Infantry and 18.5 Cavalry divisions against A-H. So, if A-H had 80 Divisions they could send 60 vs Russia and 20 vs Serbia and effectively do both plans.

In terms of manpower you are very much correct, but in terms of industry and finance, it was just not possible. 60 divisions was probably the sweet spot as far as the artillery reform plan went if funding was available. I have an excellent book about AH artillery from the Viennese war museum, which talked about AH plans for the expansion of that arm. Each division (K.u.K., Honved, and Landwehr) as of 1916 was supposed to have 60 artillery pieces (24 field, 36 (!) howitzer), while the corps was supposed to have total 36 light and heavy howitzers. Remember though that there were only 16 corps and most were supposed to have 3 divisions. Basically this means that firepower-wise, assuming the rearmament plan of 1911 ended on time, AH corps were going to be heaviest hitters on the block. I suppose this was supposed to make up for their lack of numbers.

This plan was actually agreed to by the Hungarians, though I doubt it would have been completed in 1916. Interestingly enough, it was the brainchild of Auffenberg, the War Minister and good friend of Conrad, during his short time in office, which goes to show that at least someone in the AH military hierarchy learned the lessons of the Russo-Japanese war. Conrad also wanted to vastly expand the reserve system, which would have doubled the available number of units by 1920, but the funding for it probably would never have existed. Ultimately funding hamstrung any attempt to truly modernize...

 

[Simon]

Furthermore I found it quite interesting that while in charge of the operations bureau Potiorek assumed that war with Serbia automatically meant that Russia would enter the war, which would necessitate that the full weight of Habsburg forces be immediately brought to bear in the East, something that Conrad changed when revising the war plans during his tenure. From what I was able to piece together the equivalent of 9 divisions (many Landsturm and independent Mountain Brigades) would be left to screen Serbia while the 1, 2, 3, 4 armies all were sent immediately against Russia for an offensive action.

This is partly based on the assumption by Potiorek that the Germans would be headed West with their forces, meaning AH would be left holding the bag for a while and needed to score early victories while the Russians were still concentrating their forces. That means no San-Dniester defensive line, but rather a fully concentrated AH army launched right into the thick of mobilizing Russian forces.

Interesting, the inclusion of the 2nd and 3rd armies alongside the 1st and 4th armies as in our timeline could seriously change things with regards to the Battle of Galicia. Perhaps the planned envelopment at the Battle of Komarow is successful if they have the extra troops. If at the very least they don't lose at Gnila Lipa and the loss at Rava is butterflied away what does this do to the Russians? They've just had one army destroyed and another badly mauled by a single German army and now even the attack on Austria-Hungary has failed. Is this going to move up their collapse?