Franz Ferdinand gets assassinated, but in 1916 rather than in 1914

CaliGuy

Banned
What if Franz Ferdinand would have gotten assassinated--with WWI breaking out shortly afterwards as a result of this--but in 1916 rather than in 1914?

Basically, I want to see how exactly WWI would have been different had it been delayed by two years; indeed, I wanted to make the changes from our TL as minimal as possible--though obviously Russia will have two years to modernize its military, Britain will have to deal with the trouble and mess in Ireland, et cetera.

Anyway, any thoughts on how World War I would have turned out had it broken out in 1916 but with the alliances and whatnot remaining the same?
 

BooNZ

Banned
What if Franz Ferdinand would have gotten assassinated--with WWI breaking out shortly afterwards as a result of this--but in 1916 rather than in 1914?

Basically, I want to see how exactly WWI would have been different had it been delayed by two years; indeed, I wanted to make the changes from our TL as minimal as possible--though obviously Russia will have two years to modernize its military, Britain will have to deal with the trouble and mess in Ireland, et cetera.

Anyway, any thoughts on how World War I would have turned out had it broken out in 1916 but with the alliances and whatnot remaining the same?

Refer: https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-i-which-breaks-out-in-1917-look-like.411827/
 
Isn't this going to make the Austrian response problematic if Franz Joseph dies shortly thereafter from shock (he did die in 1916)? The problem of succession will likely slow the response.
 
The months of July and August would probably have to remain the time of this happening as well to meet your requirement. Even OTL things might not have escalated quite so much if a lot of senior politicians and diplomats hadn't been off on their summer holidays.
Not sure if it would have played out quite the same. Anglo-German rivalry dying down a bit, Anglo-Russian antagonism rising a bit, different governments in Britain and France, Britain preoccupied with Ireland. In the US, Wilson might not have been re-elected without the Peace ticket. Schlieffen Plan would have had to be reworked. Berlin-Baghdad railway completed, so Turkey stronger. Probably better intelligence on all sides, detailed aerial reconnaissance now being possible. Bethmann-Hollweg possibly replaced by someone else, Reichstag probably slightly stronger. Some further changes to Russian political scene also, among other things, Tsar had lost confidence in Izvolsky by 1916.
 
the political climate was so tense that I'd say its fairly likely that some other event within the two year span would have sparked the world war before this happened.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Isn't this going to make the Austrian response problematic if Franz Joseph dies shortly thereafter from shock (he did die in 1916)? The problem of succession will likely slow the response.
Wouldn't this only make a difference if Franz Joseph dies before Austria-Hungary can actually declare war, though?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
the political climate was so tense that I'd say its fairly likely that some other event within the two year span would have sparked the world war before this happened.
Please keep in mind that Europe was able to maintain the peace for 43 years before 1914, though.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The months of July and August would probably have to remain the time of this happening as well to meet your requirement.

Agreed.

Even OTL things might not have escalated quite so much if a lot of senior politicians and diplomats hadn't been off on their summer holidays.

Yeah--at the very least, Kaiser Bill might have been more engaged earlier had he not went on vacation--thus strengthening the pro-peace side at least a little.

Not sure if it would have played out quite the same. Anglo-German rivalry dying down a bit, Anglo-Russian antagonism rising a bit, different governments in Britain and France, Britain preoccupied with Ireland. In the US, Wilson might not have been re-elected without the Peace ticket. Schlieffen Plan would have had to be reworked. Berlin-Baghdad railway completed, so Turkey stronger. Probably better intelligence on all sides, detailed aerial reconnaissance now being possible. Bethmann-Hollweg possibly replaced by someone else, Reichstag probably slightly stronger. Some further changes to Russian political scene also, among other things, Tsar had lost confidence in Izvolsky by 1916.

Any guesses as to what exactly all of this would mean, though?
 
Well strong possibility Jaures' death butterflied away in France, In Russia, Essen's death may or may not be butterflied away, he caught his illness while on active service. Probably a slightly higher chance of a less bellicose France (more anti-war political leadership and Britain less engaged) and of the Germans respecting Belgian neutrality. Essentially Romania and Italy could make territorial gains either direction and will jump on the bandwagon of the winning side (no change there at least). Might see a reverse Schlieffen, defend against France while we deal with Russia and a neutral Britain- Russia needs brought down a peg or two, any German expansion will be to the East, none of our concern!
And a richer literary scene - Charles Hamilton Sorley, Julian Grenfell, Alan Seeger, Rupert Brook, Alfred Lichtenstein all have one or two more productive writing years (at least). All killed 1914-16 OTL.
 
And Hindenburg and von Mackensen definitely retired by 1916. Which would have an effect as well. Aging men but competent generals.
 
the political climate was so tense that I'd say its fairly likely that some other event within the two year span would have sparked the world war before this happened.
It survived the Second Balkan Crisis (1885), the First and Second Moroccan Crises (1905-6 and 1911), the Bosnian Crisis (1908-9), the First and Second Balkan Wars (1912 and 1913) et cetera.
 
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