Franz Ferdinand escapes assassination!

I think they would try to break away, AH was already very very shaky due to the constant Ausgleich and they knew it (and were always pressing for more), imho they were already preparing to break away. I think first, many high-ranking Hungarians would resign, then they would try to assassinate FF, if that does not work, open revolt. They might possibly try to crown one of their own as King of Hungary.

Then civil war happens, FF knocks them all down à la Garland (no doubt with help from the Slavs). BAMF, universal suffrage, the Hungarian supremacy is broken and the Habsburg Empire is much less fragile.
 

Glen

Moderator
Kabraloth said:
I think they would try to break away, AH was already very very shaky due to the constant Ausgleich and they knew it (and were always pressing for more), imho they were already preparing to break away. I think first, many high-ranking Hungarians would resign, then they would try to assassinate FF, if that does not work, open revolt. They might possibly try to crown one of their own as King of Hungary.

Then civil war happens, FF knocks them all down à la Garland (no doubt with help from the Slavs). BAMF, universal suffrage, the Hungarian supremacy is broken and the Habsburg Empire is much less fragile.

So...you vote for Hungarian uprising, but unsuccessful.

Got it!
 
Bump Bump Bump

Good thing you bumped. I do wonder about the date you posited for FF's hypothetical death as Kaiser, though. He would have been only 60 at the time (he was 51 when he got shot OTL), and from my reading he didn't live in a particularly dissolute way, though he did like his cigars and was an asthma sufferer. His daughter Sophie lived to reach 89. His sons died fairly young, in their 60's, but one could argue that their lifespans had been shortened by their hardships (they spent some time in Dachau because of their opposition to the Nazi takeover of Austria).

Granted that FF had a nasty bout with illness in his youth, but he exerted a tremendous amount of willpower and self-discipline to recover and became quite athletic, being especially fond of tennis (there's a photo of him with a young Sophie on the tennis courts of the estate where she was serving the Archduchess Isabella as lady-in-waiting at the time). I think, having waited so long to ascend the throne, he'd have found the willpower to stick it out to the biblical threescore-and-ten or a bit more.

-Joe-
 

Glen

Moderator
Good thing you bumped. I do wonder about the date you posited for FF's hypothetical death as Kaiser, though. He would have been only 60 at the time (he was 51 when he got shot OTL), and from my reading he didn't live in a particularly dissolute way, though he did like his cigars and was an asthma sufferer. His daughter Sophie lived to reach 89. His sons died fairly young, in their 60's, but one could argue that their lifespans had been shortened by their hardships (they spent some time in Dachau because of their opposition to the Nazi takeover of Austria).

Granted that FF had a nasty bout with illness in his youth, but he exerted a tremendous amount of willpower and self-discipline to recover and became quite athletic, being especially fond of tennis (there's a photo of him with a young Sophie on the tennis courts of the estate where she was serving the Archduchess Isabella as lady-in-waiting at the time). I think, having waited so long to ascend the throne, he'd have found the willpower to stick it out to the biblical threescore-and-ten or a bit more.

-Joe-


IIRC I based the estimate on the lifespan of his parents.
 

Glen

Moderator
Here's a bit luckier Franz Ferdinand timeline discussion. Sounds like he'd be able to shove through reform.

Wonder if/when we see a WWI here, and if so what triggers it....
 

Deleted member 1487

FF would give the AH empire its best chance of survival. The only unresolved issue would be the Czechs, which would be that much more frustrated now that all the other Slavs are taken care of (Poles have free reign in Galicia and Southern Slavs have their crown). The Hungarian nobility would riot and a surprisingly large number of the peasantry would support them. However, as a minority in their own country and the Southern Slavs now with a vested interest in the Austrians succeeding, the civil war/revolt is not likely to lead anywhere. And the outside powers (minus Serbia, who really doesn't count) are going to want to support stability in the region, especially Germany, but also Russia, as the Slavs are being given much more independence in the Austrian system. The Romanians might actually join in on suppressing the Hungarians too, as they were allied with the Austrians and probably are hoping for a reward for their help.

As to the Serbs starting a war over the issue, well, there is too much to go into that I don't have the time nor will to plow through. Mainly the argument against it hinges on the Serbian army's own calculations of not being ready for a war for 10 years, because of their ammunition shortage thanks to the war they literally just finished fighting, not to mention that they are still absorbing their rebellious new territories. Also the post-facto knowledge of Serbian fighting skill was not known at the time and a major surprise to everyone, including the Serbs. If they pick the fight by declaring war, they are not going to do nearly as well, as the Russians cannot support them without losing out diplomatically.

Now, as for the AH-S empire...they are not going to be in the fittest fiddle, but the Army is going to get a major boost. FF is primarily interested in expanding and modernizing the military (he was the inspector general after all and instrumental in getting Conrad into power-who was a fine reformer, though less than adequate as a field commander). The Habsburg empire will be much more managable, though not in all situations. Decentralization will be the name of the game, but with a much more middle class centered Hungary. War might not happen at all, but I doubt the Habsburgs could or would ditch Germany. They were too dependent on the Germans for economic and trade reasons to abandon their treaties. Italy would switch camps shortly, which changes Germany's calculations on things significantly and make their starting of any general war in Europe unthinkable.

I would be very curious to see how Russia ends up ITTL. They might not make it through Nicholas' reign without another major insurrection.
 
1923 - Emperor Franz Ferdinand of the triple monarchy dies. Emperor Karl I is crowned in this year. During the 1920s, relations between Austria and Germany become increasingly strained as Emperor Karl favors improved relations with the powers in the Entente and is better at it than the socially clumsy Wilhelm II of Germany.

I'm not sure Karl makes it to the throne. I've always been convinced that one of Franz Ferdinand's first acts after becoming Emperor would have been to make his marriage dynastic and make Sophie the Empress.

Given that he is going to upset the apple cart already, making his sons heirs to his throne is hardly going to make things worse.
 

Glen

Moderator
The German Empire for one will survive in this TL. As a result the Social Democrats will begin moderate democratic reforms in Germany shutting up both the Communists and the Reactionaries.

That's possible, but how do you muzzle Wilhelm II?

There might be something like World War I later on but it might be less bloody and bitter.

Why less?

Russia might go fascist so might France and Italy in this alt-WWI.

Well, anything is possible. But why do you see this happening due to this POD?

There would be perhaps a WW2 rematch but if Germany and Austria (and it's new allies Poland, Ukraine, and some other nations) win that one we might see a German dominated European Union. Overall a better world.

Why do you assume CP victories? And why does that lead to a better world?
 

Glen

Moderator
The Social Democrats already was the largest party in the Reichstang on the eve of war and Germany was liberalizing.

Agreed, and good point, but Wilhelm II is likely to interfere, and is also likely to get them in a war at some point the way he shoots off his mouth....

The war might be more mobile.

Maybe, depends in part on how long a World War is delayed.

Russia and France might lose this alt-World War I.

Might, yes, but does that necessarily follow from a delay in World War One, or from Franz Ferdinand being in control of Austria-Hungary?

Britain may not decide to participate in World War I (it almost didn't OTL)

True, but does it necessarily follow from a delayed WWI or Franz Ferdinand leading A-H? The big thing that pushed Britain over the edge I believe was the invasion of neutral nations by the CP. That would probably still happen in a delayed WWI.

and Wilhelmine Germany was far better than the Third Reich or the USSR.

Yes, that's true.
 
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