Franz Ferdinand dies in 1913, Effect on Europe?

Archduke Franz Ferdinand was almost killed in a gun accident in November 1913. Presuming he is actually killed at that time, how does the rest of the decade play out politically? Is World War I still inevitable or might cooler heads prevail? Will Germany and UK split the Portuguese colonies and, if so, does that somehow factor into the way a war starts?

 
I don't see how FF's death would affect the future of the Portuguese colonies. What his death does do is to remove the strongest source of resistance to an aggressive policy towards Serbia and Russia. In effect he was the 'cooler head'. Nothing is 'inevitable' but removing FF from the scene increases the heat under the pot. Conrad and friends will find their excuse to attack Serbia and here we go. Caveat one. The timing will be different, and if the spark arrives later than OTL the UK may be embroiled in an Irish uprising and not in position to intervene on the continent. Caveat two. Willie was a close friend of FF. If the spark is something other that the assassination of his friend, perhaps something laughingly minor, does A-H still get the blank check from Germany?
 
I don't see how FF's death would affect the future of the Portuguese colonies. What his death does do is to remove the strongest source of resistance to an aggressive policy towards Serbia and Russia. In effect he was the 'cooler head'. Nothing is 'inevitable' but removing FF from the scene increases the heat under the pot. Conrad and friends will find their excuse to attack Serbia and here we go. Caveat one. The timing will be different, and if the spark arrives later than OTL the UK may be embroiled in an Irish uprising and not in position to intervene on the continent. Caveat two. Willie was a close friend of FF. If the spark is something other that the assassination of his friend, perhaps something laughingly minor, does A-H still get the blank check from Germany?
Germany and the UK were sniffing around the Portugese colonies. They had an understanding under which if Portugal needed major international loans both countries would offer loans secured on the Portugese colonies and if Portugal failed to pay they would divide the colonies between them. Now I don't see it happening but I see why the suggestion is being raised.

We could also see a stronger Russia leading Britain with their interest in a continental balance of power happy to stay neutral. German naval spending was slowing down (1910; 4BB; 1911 3BB 1BC; 1912 1BB 2BC; 1913 2BB 1BC; 1914 1BB) going from 4 capital ships laid down a year to 3 with just 1 laid down in 1914.

If this continued it would help cool Anglo German tensions.


I wonder if any fence sitters would be less tempted to join the central powers in what was a naked war of Austrian aggression. Would Bulgaria or the Ottomans still join the Central Powers if the war was an open attempt of the Austrians to exert supremacy over the balkans.
 
I read that the British were not as afraid of Germany as what threat the French and Russians could pose to the British if they decisively defeated Germany without the British.
 

DougM

Donor
While I think the loss increases the likelihood of a Baltic war I am not sureWW1 will break out, without the very obvious excuse to go to war I am not sure Germany jumps on the bandwagon as fast. Also I believe the WW1 had a small window to happen in. Germany was getting worried about being surrounded by France and Russia and the fact that the Russians were getting better ment that Germany thought it had a small window of time when it could handle a two front war. And once Russia gets more organized that window closes. Add in the AH was getting weaker and it will see the window for Germany writing a blank check is going to close. Add in as Germany cut back on the navy build up GB has less to fear. So GB is not as worried about Germany.
So I expect that in a not to distant time the window for WW1 will close but the window for a Balkan war will open.
 

Stenz

Monthly Donor
Germany and the UK were sniffing around the Portugese colonies. They had an understanding under which if Portugal needed major international loans both countries would offer loans secured on the Portugese colonies and if Portugal failed to pay they would divide the colonies between them. Now I don't see it happening but I see why the suggestion is being raised.
Problem is, Portugal never took those loans and managed to make it through with smaller loans secured on domestic assets. In the British view, the understanding was not the agreement the Germans thought it was. The nearer we get to 1914 (or 1913 I suppose, in view of the PoD) the less likely it is Britain will actively pursue dividing the colonies with Germany, given Grey’s Francophile diplomatic efforts.

What does the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne dying have to do with an agreement from 1898 that arguably had been overtaken by later developments?
 
Problem is, Portugal never took those loans and managed to make it through with smaller loans secured on domestic assets. In the British view, the understanding was not the agreement the Germans thought it was. The nearer we get to 1914 (or 1913 I suppose, in view of the PoD) the less likely it is Britain will actively pursue dividing the colonies with Germany, given Grey’s Francophile diplomatic efforts.

What does the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne dying have to do with an agreement from 1898 that arguably had been overtaken by later developments?
Because they agreed to renew it with revisions in October 1913 and published the treaty with aforementioned modifications in July 1914. Portugal's Republican takeover renewed British and German interest in the map of Africa and negotiations about the treaty were righg up to the July 1914 agreement. Start at page 124 from the following 1942 document (a master's thesis from the University of Louisville) for more:

 
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I don't see how FF's death would affect the future of the Portuguese colonies. What his death does do is to remove the strongest source of resistance to an aggressive policy towards Serbia and Russia. In effect he was the 'cooler head'. Nothing is 'inevitable' but removing FF from the scene increases the heat under the pot. Conrad and friends will find their excuse to attack Serbia and here we go. Caveat one. The timing will be different, and if the spark arrives later than OTL the UK may be embroiled in an Irish uprising and not in position to intervene on the continent. Caveat two. Willie was a close friend of FF. If the spark is something other that the assassination of his friend, perhaps something laughingly minor, does A-H still get the blank check from Germany?
Well, the assassination of the heir to the throne is a pretty major provocation... short of that C von Hotzendorf may just have to cool his heels for a while... of course, given that Serbia was an aggressively expansionist state from, what, 1817 on, and now had the rubric of Pan-Slavism to give justification to such expansionism, he may not have to wait for very long...
 

Stenz

Monthly Donor
Because they agreed to renew it with revisions in October 1913 and published the treaty with aforementioned modifications in July 1914. Portugal's Republican takeover renewed British and German interest in the map of Africa and negotiations about the treaty were right up to the July 1914 agreement.
Negotiations were conducted, initialled but never signed. Technically, that doesn’t mean an agreement. There exists some debate over whether the British were truly invested in the more “aggressive” aspects of the 1898 agreement anyway.

I’ve read that document - to be fair, it forms a good chunk of my reference on this subject - and this part is relevant I think:

The epilogue to 1898 merely substantiates what the tangle of 1898-99 began to vaguely indicate. The duel for Empire might allow for understanding on small points, but fundamental differences were too large to make possible a unity of action. Nicholson correctly sums up the situation by saying “Anglo-German friendship remained, however, superficial. Beneath the sugar-coating of these amenities the old fear and rivalry had lost none of its bitterness.”
 
Negotiations were conducted, initialled but never signed. Technically, that doesn’t mean an agreement. There exists some debate over whether the British were truly invested in the more “aggressive” aspects of the 1898 agreement anyway.

I’ve read that document - to be fair, it forms a good chunk of my reference on this subject - and this part is relevant I think:

The epilogue to 1898 merely substantiates what the tangle of 1898-99 began to vaguely indicate. The duel for Empire might allow for understanding on small points, but fundamental differences were too large to make possible a unity of action. Nicholson correctly sums up the situation by saying “Anglo-German friendship remained, however, superficial. Beneath the sugar-coating of these amenities the old fear and rivalry had lost none of its bitterness.”
Part of the reason negotiations were prolonged was that the Germans didn't want the treaty made public. If Franz dies earlier, perhaps Germany and the UK negotiate further *or* maybe some other incident serves as a threat to the Europeans of the colonies in question, especially without the war looming so heavily.
 

Stenz

Monthly Donor
Part of the reason negotiations were prolonged was that the Germans didn't want the treaty made public. If Franz dies earlier, perhaps Germany and the UK negotiate further *or* maybe some other incident serves as a threat to the Europeans of the colonies in question, especially without the war looming so heavily.
Possibly. But I still don’t see what FF dying had to do with this being a ‘thing’. The British proved OTL pre-WWI that they weren’t going to force the Portuguese colonies apart from the Empire and the Germans, as usual, buggered up the diplomacy anyway. This really requires further PoDs like no Grey at the FO or better diplomats in Berlin or a deeper financial crisis in Lisbon for it to have legs.
 
Possibly. But I still don’t see what FF dying had to do with this being a ‘thing’. The British proved OTL pre-WWI that they weren’t going to force the Portuguese colonies apart from the Empire and the Germans, as usual, buggered up the diplomacy anyway. This really requires further PoDs like no Grey at the FO or better diplomats in Berlin or a deeper financial crisis in Lisbon for it to have legs.
The treaty with modifications was made public in July 1914 partially because Germany thought it might convince the British to stay out of Continental affairs. Without the prospect of war looming, there is time to negotiate further, and negotiations may fail or take a totally different diection in the process.
 

Stenz

Monthly Donor
Without the prospect of war looming, there is time to negotiate further, and negotiations may fail or take a totally different diection in the process.
There is no “negotiating further” as the treaty made public in 1914 was the result of further negotiations from the 1898 treaty. They had reached their new agreement. It was a “progress report” it was the new agreement.
 

Coulsdon Eagle

Monthly Donor
Well, the assassination of the heir to the throne is a pretty major provocation... short of that C von Hotzendorf may just have to cool his heels for a while... of course, given that Serbia was an aggressively expansionist state from, what, 1817 on, and now had the rubric of Pan-Slavism to give justification to such expansionism, he may not have to wait for very long...
How about the Black Hand really improve Austria-Hungary's prospects & assassinate Conrad?
 
Germany and the UK were sniffing around the Portugese colonies. They had an understanding under which if Portugal needed major international loans both countries would offer loans secured on the Portugese colonies and if Portugal failed to pay they would divide the colonies between them. Now I don't see it happening but I see why the suggestion is being raised.

We could also see a stronger Russia leading Britain with their interest in a continental balance of power happy to stay neutral. German naval spending was slowing down (1910; 4BB; 1911 3BB 1BC; 1912 1BB 2BC; 1913 2BB 1BC; 1914 1BB) going from 4 capital ships laid down a year to 3 with just 1 laid down in 1914.

If this continued it would help cool Anglo German tensions.


I wonder if any fence sitters would be less tempted to join the central powers in what was a naked war of Austrian aggression. Would Bulgaria or the Ottomans still join the Central Powers if the war was an open attempt of the Austrians to exert supremacy over the balkans.
How about the Black Hand really improve Austria-Hungary's prospects & assassinate Conrad?
Why would they make a damnfool move like that? Then they'd be running the risk of Conrad's replacement by someone competent :p
 
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