Franz Ferdinand Assassinated in Italy or Russia

What if Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in a country hostile to Austria-Hungary but, more powerful than Serbia? Would Serbia be neutral if a war resulted? Italian or Russian nationalists would be the assassins.
 
Austria would not dare to make the same demands they made of Serbia. The government of the country in question would distance themselves from the murderers, punish them severely, express their sympathy for the Habsburgs and that'd be the end of that.
 
Austria surely couldn't make any such extravagant demands to Russia; and although there were people in its leadership who were itching for an attack on Italy, I believe it's unlikely that Vienna starts a war in that case, either. Possible but unlikely.

If a war somehow breaks out after all, Serbia will probably act sort of like OTL's Romania: wait some time to prepare and assess the strength of the enemy alliances, then join against Austria-Hungary if the conditions look good.

All this also raises the mystery of what Franz Ferdinand was doing in Russia (or Italy) in the first place.
 
If a war somehow breaks out after all, Serbia will probably act sort of like OTL's Romania: wait some time to prepare and assess the strength of the enemy alliances, then join against Austria-Hungary if the conditions look good.

This would mean: AH can mobilise in 1914 at least 5 Armies at the russian front, and ceep maybe one Army in Bosnia to save the border.

That would mean 5 Armies in Galizia instead of only 3 Armies.
Noone knows, if it would have been enough to win, but it would have been in 1914 more successfull than in OTL.

This would have reduced the pressure on the German 8th army.
One possible Szenario:
One additional Army near Lemberg, and one more army against Poland.
Russia is forced to send the 2nd army to the south, and the 1st russian is now alone against the german 1st army.
The Germans can defend Eastprussia, without Hindenburg ans Ludendorf, ans no regiments from the Westfront have to be sent to the east.
Result for the Westfront: More troops march to the Marne, Germany could have one there, but will be stopped at Paris because of the longer distances and larger logistic problems.

Result at the russian front: larger battles at the AH front, AH can defend Lemberg but the frontier in Poland might be the same as OTL.

Now Beginning of 1915 Serbia looks, if they should join the war.
In this ATL, AH and Germany are of course mor succesfull, because on frontier is missing and AH can concentrate on russia.

Maybe Serbia will continue waiting..

After beeing stopped near Paris Germany will concentrate to the east....
 
This would mean: AH can mobilise in 1914 at least 5 Armies at the russian front, and ceep maybe one Army in Bosnia to save the border.

That would mean 5 Armies in Galizia instead of only 3 Armies.
Noone knows, if it would have been enough to win, but it would have been in 1914 more successfull than in OTL.

This would have reduced the pressure on the German 8th army.
One possible Szenario:
One additional Army near Lemberg, and one more army against Poland.
Russia is forced to send the 2nd army to the south, and the 1st russian is now alone against the german 1st army.
The Germans can defend Eastprussia, without Hindenburg ans Ludendorf, ans no regiments from the Westfront have to be sent to the east.
Result for the Westfront: More troops march to the Marne, Germany could have one there, but will be stopped at Paris because of the longer distances and larger logistic problems.

Result at the russian front: larger battles at the AH front, AH can defend Lemberg but the frontier in Poland might be the same as OTL.

Now Beginning of 1915 Serbia looks, if they should join the war.
In this ATL, AH and Germany are of course mor succesfull, because on frontier is missing and AH can concentrate on russia.

Maybe Serbia will continue waiting..

After beeing stopped near Paris Germany will concentrate to the east....
Well, it is more like 2 armies near Serbia due to the logistics, the German 8th army [or its defensive components at least] and fears of Serbian, Romanian or Italian backstabbing. After the possible destruction of 1 Russian Army, the Austrians can take over German duties in East Prussia just as the Germans face their first defeat at the Marne. But seriously, an alternate Archduke Franz Ferdinand assassination brings different impacts on history, especially if not on the same date as historical or close to.
 
This would mean: AH can mobilise in 1914 at least 5 Armies at the russian front, and ceep maybe one Army in Bosnia to save the border.

That would mean 5 Armies in Galizia instead of only 3 Armies.
Noone knows, if it would have been enough to win, but it would have been in 1914 more successfull than in OTL.

This would have reduced the pressure on the German 8th army.
One possible Szenario:

Interesting scenario. I assume this follows an incident with Russia instead of Italy, so Austria wouldn't have to fight Italy at the start.


I agree that the date can matter a lot.

Also, the different circumstances which start the war could result in very important changes. If the Ottoman Empire ends up neutral - that's a huge advantage for Russia over OTL, both in terms of armies and supply. (and for the Western Entente, too, since they wouldn't have to waste resources and soldiers on Gallipoli)

Italy and Romania might or might not have a different view about their own participation. IIRC Serbia would want to wait until at least 1916 to resupply and recover its military; unless there's some kind of a really big opportunity before that.
 
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