Franklin Roosevelt's Fourth Term

A simple enough 'what-if'. What happens through the course of Roosevelt's fourth term, a term in which he never has the brain hemorrhage that killed him in 1945, as in OTL.

- Roosevelt is undoubtedly going to use the Atomic Bomb on Japan. I really can't foresee a reason why he wouldn't, but where are his targets? Does he still have Hiroshima and Nagasaki burnt to dust, or does he set his sights on Tokyo?

- Following the war itself, how does the post-war peace turn out? Does Roosevelt follow the same path as Truman, or is he more relaxed to the actions of the Soviets, or even more aggressive, in that mold?

- On the domestic front, I think it's rather unlikely that the Republicans will come out in full force and regain the Congress in 1946, meaning a very different 80th Congress, since their initial gain of Congress was because of Truman's perceived ineptness when it came to actually leading the country. Does Roosevelt use a Democratic Congress to pursue another New Deal (or a Fair Deal, a la Truman) in creating universal health care? Would Roosevelt desegregate the armed forces? (I'm really thinking 'no', because Roosevelt was quite the shrewd politician, and he knew he needed southern Democratic votes to get much of anything done of his own policy), and Taft-Hartley would never, ever come into being under the watch of the labor-friendly Roosevelt (nor would it get out of the House with the Democrats in control of both houses of Congress).

- Going into the 1948 Presidential Election, what in the world does Roosevelt do? I'm sure there will be partisans trying to draft the President for a fifth term, but he's a lot weaker than he was ten years prior, when he was preparing to seek a third term, so I assume he's sitting this one out. The Democratic Convention will be a madhouse, with candidates from all sides of the party vying for the nomination. From the New Deal wing of the party, I can see Alben Barkley, Henry Wallace, or some strong Democratic governors who support the New Deal getting the nod (Wallace, of course, would only get the nomination with Roosevelt's support, and I highly doubt he'd have a chance in Hell); While on the conservative side, I see Strom Thurmond as a contender (though Roosevelt, who is most likely playing kingmaker in this contest, will prefer a New Dealer at the top of the ticket; one of the reasons he ran again in 1940 was a lack of a good New Deal Democrat to lead the ticket, as his choices (Harry Hopkins, Robert Jackson) seemed rather disinterested). I can see Roosevelt himself preferring or even courting Eisenhower for the job, but I'm not sure if Roosevelt can convince him to do it if he doesn't want it; George Marshall might be a different story, though...

Thoughts?
 
- Roosevelt is undoubtedly going to use the Atomic Bomb on Japan. I really can't foresee a reason why he wouldn't, but where are his targets? Does he still have Hiroshima and Nagasaki burnt to dust, or does he set his sights on Tokyo?

I believe Hiroshima and Tokyo were the original targets but they had to bomb Nagasaki instead of Toyko due to bad weather.
 
I believe Hiroshima and Tokyo were the original targets but they had to bomb Nagasaki instead of Toyko due to bad weather.
Not Tokyo, but Kokura. The bad weather was indeed the reason Nagasaki was bombed.

Tokyo had already been firebombed to ashes, so an A-bomb would have been just overkill, and it would risk killing the people (cabinet + emperor) needed to surrender.

I think Kyoto was also off the list, here because of its cultural value.
 
Tokyo was off the list because the Americans wanted a significant majority of the Japanese government alive to surrender after the paired attacks. It reinforced the legitimacy of the American victory in the eyes of the regular Japanese, or so the theory goes.
 
If I recall my Beschloss right, Roosevelt was thinking of resigning as soon as Germany and Japan were heeled, the occupation governments firmly established, and the postwar order in sight.
 
Roosevelt might not have hawkish to the Communists as Truman and may have prevented or delayed NATO's creation. If this were to happen a Republican might have been elected President in 1948 most likely Thomas Dewey.
 
I think the 1948 Democratic primaries might have been less acrimonious if Roosevelt had lived long enough to hold the party together (it nearly split over the issue of civil rights with the Dixiecrats backing Strom Thurmond and some liberals backing Henry A. Wallace).

Roosevelt would have retired with the role as a beloved elder statesman.
 
If I recall my Beschloss right, Roosevelt was thinking of resigning as soon as Germany and Japan were heeled, the occupation governments firmly established, and the postwar order in sight.
Assuming Roosevelt stays in office, what do these postwar governments even look like? I wouldn't think there would be huge differences, structurally speaking, though you never know.

Roosevelt might not have hawkish to the Communists as Truman and may have prevented or delayed NATO's creation. If this were to happen a Republican might have been elected President in 1948 most likely Thomas Dewey.
If Roosevelt delays the creation of NATO, I really don't see this as a huge campaign issue in 1948. Sure, the Republicans would run with it (or at least, interventionist Republicans), but the Democrats, and most of the general public, probably wouldn't give a damn concerning communism encroachment in Europe or elsewhere, mainly due to the fact that they'd just left war and weren't in any mood to do any saber-rattling.

I think the 1948 Democratic primaries might have been less acrimonious if Roosevelt had lived long enough to hold the party together (it nearly split over the issue of civil rights with the Dixiecrats backing Strom Thurmond and some liberals backing Henry A. Wallace).

Roosevelt would have retired with the role as a beloved elder statesman.
That, of course, begs to question who would get the beloved President's endorsement? Roosevelt has a few to choose from, it looks like.

Alben Barkley, the Senate Majority Leader from Kentucky. Barkley was a strong supporter of the New Deal and was unafraid to tell the President "no" when the two disagreed on issues, something that probably cost him the Vice Presidential spot in 1944 when the two squabbled over a tax bill before making up on the issue.

Henry Wallace, the former Vice President of the United States and Commerce Secretary, who in this timeline didn't bolt and form the Progressive Party. Wallace looks like he'd be far too eccentric and too liberal for southern Democrats to stomach, and I could only see him getting nominated with the expressed wishes of President Roosevelt.

Scott Lucas, Senator from Illinois and number two Democrat in the Senate. Lucas doesn't have any real baggage with him, and he's a solid supporter of the New Deal, so nothing for Roosevelt to worry about in nominating him.

Paul McNutt, the Governor of Indiana. McNutt is more aligned with the center of the Democratic Party, and would most likely be anathema to organized labor. I really doubt him getting past a Vice Presidential nomination, if anything.

Harry Truman, Vice President of the United States. Back in 1948, Vice Presidents really weren't the likeliest of candidates for President, even if their bosses died in office, so it's unlikely Truman would get the nod at all. If Truman is nominated, it would be out of a deadlocked convention more than anything else.

And some possible dark horse candidates...

Dwight Eisenhower, the man who lead the U.S. through the Second World War. If Roosevelt can convince Eisenhower to run as a Democrat, he'll lock up the next four to eight years for the Democrats as a political party in the White House.

George C. Marshall, Roosevelt's wartime military advisor. Marshall is a military pick, like Eisenhower, though I doubt it's as forceful a pick. Still, though, maximizes the Democrats' turnout from the GI Generation.

Eleanor Roosevelt, the first lady of the United States. Is this one even remotley possible? I just got the idea from The Plot Against America, where it is off-handedly mentioned that Eleanor could be nominated by acclamation to take on Lindbergh. Does Eleanor have any real shot at the Democratic nomination? If so, I think she's got a good chance at the Presidency, if only because of her large exposure to the media and the public, who view her favorably.

As for the Vice Presidency, it'll most likely fall to a southerner...

Richard Russell, Senator from Georgia.
Harley Kilgore, Senator from West Virginia.
Strom Thurmond, Governor of South Carolina.
Fielding L. Wright, Governor of Mississippi.
Herman Talmadge, Governor of Georgia.

Thoughts?
 
Eisenhower actually was courted by the frustrated Democrats in '48 but he declined...

If a southerner were chosen as VP it would have to be a moderate. Thurmond would be out.
 
A simple enough 'what-if'. What happens through the course of Roosevelt's fourth term, a term in which he never has the brain hemorrhage that killed him in 1945, as in OTL.

- Roosevelt is undoubtedly going to use the Atomic Bomb on Japan. I really can't foresee a reason why he wouldn't, but where are his targets? Does he still have Hiroshima and Nagasaki burnt to dust, or does he set his sights on Tokyo?

Not Tokyo or Kyoto, for the above stated reasons by other posters. I think that Niigata might have been the 2nd target on 6 August if weather didn't permit a drop on Hiroshima. The USAAF planners specifically chose cities which hadn't already received heavy conventional bombing.

- Following the war itself, how does the post-war peace turn out? Does Roosevelt follow the same path as Truman, or is he more relaxed to the actions of the Soviets, or even more aggressive, in that mold?

Good question. I think he might be even more inclined to work towards containment of the spread of Communism, since Stalin will have gone back on his word personally to him. Poland could serve as a flashpoint...

- On the domestic front, I think it's rather unlikely that the Republicans will come out in full force and regain the Congress in 1946, meaning a very different 80th Congress, since their initial gain of Congress was because of Truman's perceived ineptness when it came to actually leading the country. Does Roosevelt use a Democratic Congress to pursue another New Deal (or a Fair Deal, a la Truman) in creating universal health care? Would Roosevelt desegregate the armed forces? (I'm really thinking 'no', because Roosevelt was quite the shrewd politician, and he knew he needed southern Democratic votes to get much of anything done of his own policy), and Taft-Hartley would never, ever come into being under the watch of the labor-friendly Roosevelt (nor would it get out of the House with the Democrats in control of both houses of Congress).

I don't know about the desegregation thing. I find it a more shocking idea that Truman was the one to desegregate the Armed Forces :). With Eleanor Roosevelt still as First Lady, and ample evidence of the valiant services of black soldiers in the War, I could see her forcing him into it even if he wasn't too keen himself.

As to the rest, yes, I doubt that the Republicans would have gotten their majority in '46, so there would never have been a Taft-Hartley Act, and I'm sure there'd have been a successful passage of the NHI bill.

- Going into the 1948 Presidential Election, what in the world does Roosevelt do? I'm sure there will be partisans trying to draft the President for a fifth term, but he's a lot weaker than he was ten years prior, when he was preparing to seek a third term, so I assume he's sitting this one out. The Democratic Convention will be a madhouse, with candidates from all sides of the party vying for the nomination. From the New Deal wing of the party, I can see Alben Barkley, Henry Wallace, or some strong Democratic governors who support the New Deal getting the nod (Wallace, of course, would only get the nomination with Roosevelt's support, and I highly doubt he'd have a chance in Hell); While on the conservative side, I see Strom Thurmond as a contender (though Roosevelt, who is most likely playing kingmaker in this contest, will prefer a New Dealer at the top of the ticket; one of the reasons he ran again in 1940 was a lack of a good New Deal Democrat to lead the ticket, as his choices (Harry Hopkins, Robert Jackson) seemed rather disinterested). I can see Roosevelt himself preferring or even courting Eisenhower for the job, but I'm not sure if Roosevelt can convince him to do it if he doesn't want it; George Marshall might be a different story, though...

Thoughts?

Even if Roosevelt lives out his fourth term, I can see a similar break-up of the Democratic coalition as occured OTL. FDR brought together so many disparate groups that I doubt that anyone could have possibly held it together. His four terms in office didn't help either, sucking up the political spotlight for almost an entire generation of what we call in French "les présidentiables," and he left behind him a very weak bench (not that the Republican bench was any deeper).

Since I still bet that FDR would desegregate the Armed Forces in his fourth term, I don't see any reason to butterfly any the Dixiecrat revolt. Given no Taft-Hartley and NHI, though, I don't see the liberal revolt occuring. Passed that, I'll leave it up to more knowledgeable people to postulate on possible Democratic nominees.
 
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