Perhaps. Off the top of my head though, I'd have to say the final situation in Italy is going to depend on re-establishing the political balance (as per usual) by dividing influence between the north and south. So long as Murat is on the throne of Naples, I can't see the Coalition accepting Napoleon's stepson on an Italian throne. In these circumstances, he could have to pick and choose; though Austria is probably more inclined to get a friendly candidate in the North and sell the Bourbons up the creek in its initial offering, her allies lean more towards restoring the status quo in southern Italy.
Austria is home to Napoleon's Empress, having his stepson as a neighbor might not work but an independent Vienna or French concession to permit an Austrian Venice would sweeten the deal a bit. Eugene becomes ruler of Milan and/or Sardinia giving France a reliable neighbor/satellite. Murat might stay in the South or take over the balance or northern Italy via a Tuscan Republic with Naples and Rome resuming something akin to their pre-Napoleonic situation.